Processing Prognostications

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paulclarke1

Registered Users (C)
Last week on Rupnet there were 16 cases approved for NSC. (The previous week there were 20). Approvals broke down by RD as follows 7 July, 8 Aug and 1 Sept. It looks to me that they may have completed their processes of June cases, Rupnet shows 75% of cases loaded being approved and that is about as high as you can expect. Others may dribble in over the next few weeks/months. If the 75% rule of thumb is true and they maintain there current rate, then July will be complete in about 3 weeks, they may then go back to Oct cases. I would suspect that we will see a few more Sept cases approved this week.

NB I have no inside data and this is just an opinion based on the data in Rupnet.
 
Hi Paul,
I think NSC is pursuing Aug 2001 cases now, plus July RFE cases.
You see the high no. of RFEs in July. About 55% RFE cases in JUly are now approved. Watch this trend continue until it reaches the 75% threshold. Also you should watch the trend fro Aug 2001. Right now the "Cases Loaded" indicator stands at 53%. You will only see some movement in Sep 2001 cases once both July RFEs and Aug Cases Loaded thresholds reach around 75%.

This is purely my analysis based on experience from prior 2-3 months. Again there are always external factors to consider that are hampering approvals. Watch my next post. It fell like a bomb shell on me when I read it.
 
PaulClarke pal

What about Augusts?
There are quite a few Aug cases remaining open. How would u figure them into ur pronosis?

:)
 
Bad news from INS - Not for the weak hearted

Applications and petitions for immigration benefits in September 2002 decreased 13 percent compared to the number received in September 2001. September approvals were down 17 percent, while denials increased by 40 percent when compared to September 2001. For fiscal year 2002, receipts were down 15 percent while approvals were down less than 1 percent when compared to fiscal year 2001. Click on this link:

www.ins.gov/graphics/aboutins/statistics/msrsep02/benefit.htm


Bottom line : Get prepared for extraordinary level of scrutiny and kiss speedy approvals goodbye for the time being. If DHS comes to life this week or next (as soon as Bush signs the bill HR 5710), add further confusion and chaos.

Can anybody recommend some extra strong anti-depressants for me please. Thanks a lot.
 
I suspect you are right

I think we may need to be a little careful in interpreting this data. This is for all categories of immigration benefit not just I-485. However I think we are already seeing the impact of this in the current approvals.

As for 'adjustees' question regarding August. This far we have seen 69 approvals for Aug RD's. If we use the 75% rule we are looking for about 144 approvals before we could consider Aug to be 'finished'. This would mean that at the present rate it would take 9 weeks for them to complete Aug. If when they finish July, they devote that resource to Aug, then they could be finished in about 6 weeks. At best this is a really rough estimate. I think it would be a few more weeks before you could really be confident about making this prediction. Perhaps T-Rex might have some insight here.
 
You guys are very good in math and stats!

Good work PaulClarke/T-Rex.
Lets hope NSC obeys atleast the mathematical laws of the universe!
 
Just a small correction -
You do not need to have 75% cases approved, but include both approved + RFEs.
Use 75% as a Case Load Factor. This means cases pulled off of INS shelf. This includes both Approvals + RFEs. Use this formula:

(Approvals + RFEs - RFEs approved) * 100 / Filers

This gives you the case load factor (CLF) for each month. Consider June closed as CLF for June is very high. July is almost closed except for RFEs. As soon as %age of RFEs approved reaches around 75% for July, as well as CLF for August reaching 75%, you may see movement in Sept. Until then sit tight.

I know this is getting complicated, but what do you think INS-NSC is ???

;)

So long .... Cheers.
 
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