Let’s play some math with INS Statistics trying to find the next cut-off date. Below are the number of applications for Asylum approved by INS between January and September 1997:
January 1997: 1,002
February 1997: 1,045
March 1997: 1,904
April 1997: 665
May 1997: 36
June 1997: 135
July 1997: 213
August 1997: 326
September 1997: 1,040
Total: 6,366
Following the explanation for the low rate of approvals between April and August:
Beginning in April 1997 The Asylum Officer Corps (AOC) could no longer grant a case before FBI fingerprinting clearance had been completed.
We can safely assume that all these asylum cases approved in 1997, became I-485 asylee applicants the following year (1998); consequently, the number of I-485 applications filed between January and September 1998, would be:
January 1998: 1,002
February 1998: 1,045
March 1998: 1,904
April 1998: 665
May 1998: 36
June 1998: 135
July 1998: 213
August 1998: 326
September 1998: 1,040
Total: 6,366
The above figures are the number of cases approved, and what we really need to account is for the number of individuals (which is different from the number of cases). As per INS Statistics, the ratio individuals/cases in 1998 was 1.569 (15,896 divided by 10,129). So, I will use this same factor to find out the number of I-485 asylee applicants (individuals)between January 16 , 1998 (last cut-off reported by INS) and September 1998, as follows:
January 1998: 786 (assuming 501 cases have been already adjudicated)
February 1998: 1,640
March 1998: 2,988
April 1998: 1,044
May 1998: 56
June 1998: 212
July 1998: 334
August 1998: 512
September 1998: 1,632
Total: 9,204
This estimate does not account for those individuals that filed I-485 and got their asylum status after an appealing process nor for those that might have died, or abandoned their applications because they got status through any other via, or special processing, etc.
As for those cases coming from appealing process, I expect to follow the same profile since the FBI checkout procedure stated above, also applied to them.
Then, what would be the next cut-off date? I believe it would be the beginning of September 98 or some time in between end of July and end of September 1998.
I believe that before the end of FY 2002 (September 2002), INS will be about to complete cases filed in FY 98, and between October 2002 and December 2002 they will be processing applications filed by the end of FY 98 and will also start with applications filed in FY 99. This under the assumption that INS will efficiently manage the 10,000 quota limit and President Bush will sign the Presidential Determination for FY 2003, by the end of next September (which I believe are pretty reasonable assumptions).
January 1997: 1,002
February 1997: 1,045
March 1997: 1,904
April 1997: 665
May 1997: 36
June 1997: 135
July 1997: 213
August 1997: 326
September 1997: 1,040
Total: 6,366
Following the explanation for the low rate of approvals between April and August:
Beginning in April 1997 The Asylum Officer Corps (AOC) could no longer grant a case before FBI fingerprinting clearance had been completed.
We can safely assume that all these asylum cases approved in 1997, became I-485 asylee applicants the following year (1998); consequently, the number of I-485 applications filed between January and September 1998, would be:
January 1998: 1,002
February 1998: 1,045
March 1998: 1,904
April 1998: 665
May 1998: 36
June 1998: 135
July 1998: 213
August 1998: 326
September 1998: 1,040
Total: 6,366
The above figures are the number of cases approved, and what we really need to account is for the number of individuals (which is different from the number of cases). As per INS Statistics, the ratio individuals/cases in 1998 was 1.569 (15,896 divided by 10,129). So, I will use this same factor to find out the number of I-485 asylee applicants (individuals)between January 16 , 1998 (last cut-off reported by INS) and September 1998, as follows:
January 1998: 786 (assuming 501 cases have been already adjudicated)
February 1998: 1,640
March 1998: 2,988
April 1998: 1,044
May 1998: 56
June 1998: 212
July 1998: 334
August 1998: 512
September 1998: 1,632
Total: 9,204
This estimate does not account for those individuals that filed I-485 and got their asylum status after an appealing process nor for those that might have died, or abandoned their applications because they got status through any other via, or special processing, etc.
As for those cases coming from appealing process, I expect to follow the same profile since the FBI checkout procedure stated above, also applied to them.
Then, what would be the next cut-off date? I believe it would be the beginning of September 98 or some time in between end of July and end of September 1998.
I believe that before the end of FY 2002 (September 2002), INS will be about to complete cases filed in FY 98, and between October 2002 and December 2002 they will be processing applications filed by the end of FY 98 and will also start with applications filed in FY 99. This under the assumption that INS will efficiently manage the 10,000 quota limit and President Bush will sign the Presidential Determination for FY 2003, by the end of next September (which I believe are pretty reasonable assumptions).