Playing math with INS Statistics

alanpero

Registered Users (C)
Let’s play some math with INS Statistics trying to find the next cut-off date. Below are the number of applications for Asylum approved by INS between January and September 1997:
January 1997: 1,002
February 1997: 1,045
March 1997: 1,904
April 1997: 665
May 1997: 36
June 1997: 135
July 1997: 213
August 1997: 326
September 1997: 1,040
Total: 6,366
Following the explanation for the low rate of approvals between April and August:
Beginning in April 1997 The Asylum Officer Corps (AOC) could no longer grant a case before FBI fingerprinting clearance had been completed.
We can safely assume that all these asylum cases approved in 1997, became I-485 asylee applicants the following year (1998); consequently, the number of I-485 applications filed between January and September 1998, would be:
January 1998: 1,002
February 1998: 1,045
March 1998: 1,904
April 1998: 665
May 1998: 36
June 1998: 135
July 1998: 213
August 1998: 326
September 1998: 1,040
Total: 6,366
The above figures are the number of cases approved, and what we really need to account is for the number of individuals (which is different from the number of cases). As per INS Statistics, the ratio individuals/cases in 1998 was 1.569 (15,896 divided by 10,129). So, I will use this same factor to find out the number of I-485 asylee applicants (individuals)between January 16 , 1998 (last cut-off reported by INS) and September 1998, as follows:
January 1998: 786 (assuming 501 cases have been already adjudicated)
February 1998: 1,640
March 1998: 2,988
April 1998: 1,044
May 1998: 56
June 1998: 212
July 1998: 334
August 1998: 512
September 1998: 1,632
Total: 9,204
This estimate does not account for those individuals that filed I-485 and got their asylum status after an appealing process nor for those that might have died, or abandoned their applications because they got status through any other via, or special processing, etc.
As for those cases coming from appealing process, I expect to follow the same profile since the FBI checkout procedure stated above, also applied to them.
Then, what would be the next cut-off date? I believe it would be the beginning of September 98 or some time in between end of July and end of September 1998.
I believe that before the end of FY 2002 (September 2002), INS will be about to complete cases filed in FY 98, and between October 2002 and December 2002 they will be processing applications filed by the end of FY 98 and will also start with applications filed in FY 99. This under the assumption that INS will efficiently manage the 10,000 quota limit and President Bush will sign the Presidential Determination for FY 2003, by the end of next September (which I believe are pretty reasonable assumptions).
 
I do not quite understand

Alan,

I believe that according to the January INS news release (and as relayed to me by local INS officers), the cut off date is now June 9, 1998.
 
No Title

Gilbert, Yes and no would be really the answer to your question.
Latest processing time report from NSC (as of January 31, 2002)reports June 2, 1998 as the "Date of cases pending initial adjudication". Technically, this could be interpreted as the cut-off date and maybe that is the information local INS officers have released to you.
However that reported date is really meaningless and it is not related to the cut-off date (by definition, the filing date of the applications that INS is adjudicating or in the process of being adjudicated). INS NSC has been reporting that same date (6/2/98) for the last three years at least. So, my question was how come that date doesn\'t change over the time if INS is adjudicating applications year after year?
I unsuccessfully tried to find answers by calling NSC and asking the same question to different Immigration Officers.
So, more than a year ago I wrote my Congressperson asking help to find a reasonable explanation from INS to that incongruence. The answer I received was that the date reported (6-2-98) is the filing date of the applications filed at NSC after the filing procedure was changed (from local INS offices to everything centralized in NSC).
And, before start processing applications filed on or after that date, they had first to adjudicate applications filed at local INS offices.
They said they couldn\'t update that date periodically because NSC had no records of the applications filed at local INS offices and they relied on information provided by local INS offices once a year only.
In other words, the date of June 2, 1998 is the date of the first application filed at NSC after that change in the filing procedure and; therefore, by no mean represents the filing date of the applications that INS is currently adjudicating or in the process of being adjudicated(cut-off date).
By the beginning of 2001, INS officially reported to AILA that the current cut-off date was January 16, 1998, meaning that applications filed on or before that date have been adjudicated or are in the process of being adjudicated.
Since then, I haven\'t heard of any other official announcement in this matter. INS said they were going to announce the next cut-off date by the beginning of October, 2001. However, the tragedy of September 11, the delay in approval of the Presidential Determination has altered everything, and INS hasn\'t announced the next cut-off yet.
The PD was approved last November. Since then INS started processing the 10,000 numbers for FY 2002.
We also know that, since then, they have adjudicated cases pending from local INS offices (Otoka and other cases posted in this forum, nothing heard from Jack). Also that memo from INS makes me think that INS has realized they are about to get rid of applications filed at local INS offices. So the questions are: how far will the INS will go this FY? What is the next cut-off date to be reported? In other words, what will be the filing date of applications that INS will be adjudicating (or in the process of being adjudicated) by the end of FY 2002?
That is what I was trying to figure out in the message I posted.
 
No Title

Alan,

I agree with you that the June 2, 1998 date is meaningless. The cutoff date for FY 2001 was January 16, 1998. Back in January, you directed us to an INS news release that provides a new cut-off date, namely June 9, 1998. I am afraid that applications filed after that date will not be approved this FY. After FY 2003 begins, we can expect the cutoff date moving to October or November 1998. In FY 04, the date should be March 99, etc. Given that there are more than 20,000 asylum grants each year, there should be a 5-6 month advance each fiscal year.

I hope I am wrong, but the above estimate underscores the need for prompt legislation.
 
Oops!

Gilbert,
Honestly I do not recall that INS news release. Could you please let me know exactly what was the reference I provided?
And remember that between April and August 1997 there was an unusual low number of asylum cases approved due to that FP verification procedure adopted. So, I am not expecting many I-485 applications filed the following year between April and August 1998.
 
http://www.ins.usdoj.gov/graphics/publicaffairs/advisories/Asylum_Memo.htm

Go to the link above.

In my view, we will not be seeing any more movements until the next fiscal year.
 
That date is not the cutoff date

Gilbert, I found the reference you mentioned, and read again that memo very carefully. I don\'t believe June 8, 1998 is the current cut-off we are expecting INS announce for FY 2002.
First of all the memo is addressed to local INS offices in order to ensure utilization of the 10,000 numbers. INS does not normally announce the cutoff dates to the public, not even post it in their website. Instead, INS provides the cutoff date at AILA\'s request, AILA posts the date to their associates. This is an INS memo to NSC and local offices, and in my opinion it doesn\'t make sense they are announcing the cut-off date between them.
Second, the intention of the memo is to rule a procedure to better manage the 10,000 numbers for FY 2002and adjudicate those applications filed before June 9, 1998. I believe that the date they were posting for years (June 2, 1998) is not the right one. Instead, June 9, 1998 (the date referred in that memo)is the actual date for applications when they started to be centralized at NSC.
My interpretation of the text of that memo is that INS is realizing they are approaching to complete the processing of applications filed at local INS offices, and before continuing with the adjudication filed at NSC (on or after June 1998) they want to make sure there are not applications still pending at local INS offices. And if there were, by that memo they are authorizing local INS offices to adjudicate them directly.
That date of June 8, 1998 is not referred at any time as the current cutoff date. At least this is my interpretation, trying to make an impartial analysis of the information we have at hand.
There are other pieces of information that make me think that the INS haven\'t reached the 10,000 quota yet, like:
1. Message posted by Rosee recently
2. PD for FY 2002 was signed by the end of November. That memo was posted on January 11, and taking into account December is a month of holidays, I don\'t think INS has had enough time to figure out what the next cutoff date is.
3. Last cutoff date officially reported by INS (January 16, 1998) was released by mid March 2001, more than four months after the PD for FY 2001 was approved (October 1, 2000).
The only piece of information that still doesn\'t make sense for me is Jack\'s case when we have heard that people who filed after him, already got approval like Sadna Naiker (filed in September 1997) or TEST100 (filed in February 1998).
This is my way to see everything. Of course I could be mistaken; however, I am only trying to realistically have an idea of when my application might be processed!!
 
I hope you are right

Dear Alan,

I certainly hope you are right. We will have to wait and see until more definitive information is released by the INS.

My interim assumptions are that the before the new refugees numbers were authorized last November, the INS was processing cases before January 16, 1998. When the new numbers came out, top INS people made an educated guess and decided that cases before June 9 should be processed. So they authorized local offices to approve these cases. The INS does not know the precise number of pending cases at the local level. So June 9 is their best, probably conservative guess. They certainly made allowances for applications that will be "discovered" sometime this year and have receipt dates earlier than June 9. They will approve these as they surface.
In the late 1980s\', there was a similar backlog of asylee cases. At that time the INS did release cutoff dates annually. I am not surprised that it might have resumed that practice.
Despite the fingerprint problems, in 97 there were at least 22,300 persons granted asylum in the United States.

The NSC did not start accepting asylee applications until July 6, 1998. So the June 2 date is a bit strange. The INS annouced on June 3 that it was going to centralize asylee processing. My guess is that after July 6, some local officers transferred their cases to the NSC for adjudication. Realizing the huge backlog, the NSC did not in the past four years really do anything to the applications it received. So they are on a holding pattern. Realizing this, the INS in 2000 asked asylees to stop enclosing medicals.

This is just humble my opinion that June 9 represents the new tentative cutoff date. When it is finalized, probably it will be June 14 or something.
 
No Title

Hi Gilbert,
I agree with all your statements, except for your last paragraph. You have your arguments and I have mine to guess what will be the cutoff date by the end of this FY.
Namely you are saying it will be June 9, 1998 (or maybe June 14, 1998) and I am saying sometime between end of July 1998 and the end of September 1998 (most likely the beginning of September 1998).
Only thing we can do now is wait and look forward any official information released by INS in this regard, so that we will know when our applications are expected to be processed.
 
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