From:
http://kayevisalaw.com/8-9-07_Predictions_For_October.html
PREDICTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2007 PRIORITY DATES
FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANT VISAS - GOOD NEWS!
By: Allen E. Kaye
WASHINGTON, DC August. 2, 2007 - Government sources have advised us that we can expect more good news when the new pool of visa numbers is released for the fiscal year which begins on October 1, 2007. The priority date information listed is to be taken as educated predictions, not carved in stone. Expect the following:
I. Worldwide, other than India and China, EBI, EB2, EB4 and EB5 immigrant visa categories will be current as of October 1, 2007. It may be necessary to retrogress them later in 2007 or 2008.
2. EBI for India and China will likely be current in October, 2007.
3. EB2 for India and China will likely have a cut-off date in October, 2007 close to the cutoff dates for January, 2007, which were: India - January 8, 2003; China - April 22, 2005.
4. EB3 cut-off dates for October, 2007 also will likely have a cut-off date close to the cutoff dates for January, 2007, which were: Worldwide (other than India and China) -August 1, 2002; India -May 8, 2001; China - April 22, 2005.
Please note that these are predictions subject to change depending on the number of cases approved by USCIS during the next two months.
Other "Visa Gate" Factoids:
I. During fiscal year 2007 (October 1, 2006 through July 2007) USCIS processed over 18,000 EB3 cases for persons born in India and of that number, 8,000 were processed during June, 2007 and 7,000 were processed during July, 2007. This represents five years worth of allocated visa numbers. The annual limit for India is 2,800 per year in the EB3 category.
2. When the Visa Bulletin indicates that visas numbers are unavailable for an employment based category and country, H-I B applicants who have reached the six year limit in H-I B status may obtain three-year extensions under AC 21. This means if the Visa Bulletin reflects "U", the per-country limit has been reached.
3. The unofficial reports are that the Texas Service Center received approximately 40,000 1-485 applications during the first day or two in July and the Nebraska Service Center received approximately 35,000 1-485 applications during the same period of time.
4. During the first eight months of fiscal year 2007 (October 2006 through May, 2007) USCIS requested 66,600 EB visa numbers. During June and July, 2007 USCIS requested 66,800 numbers.
We will provide you with updates as they become available.
Thanks to my colleague Jan Pederson of Washington, D.C. for sharing this information with me for our readers.
Future visa availability
As of August 3, 2007, the USCIS had not returned enough visa numbers to have an impact on employment based visa availability for September. The September visa bulletin should be published around August 8th or 9th, and we predict "U" across the board in employment categories.
Our best prediction at this time:
In October - with the start of the new fiscal year - the situation changes. Worldwide, the first, second, fourth and fifth employment preference categories should be current. Third preference will have a cutoff date - and there may be cutoff dates for India and China in both second and third preference categories. We expect worldwide 3d preference to be backed up to mid 2002, and India to be mid 2001.
India 2nd preference may be around January, 2003. If China 2d preference is backlogged, the cutoff date should be around April, 2005.
Movement within preference categories for the remainder of the year will depend on how the USCIS requests visa numbers, and how they are able to deal with security clearance issues. IF USCIS uses its "new" practice of requesting visa numbers in advance of obtaining security clearances, movement may be very slow, and categories may retrogress further, If they go back to requesting visa numbers when an application is actually ready to be approved, AND if the logjam in security clearances continues, the USCIS demand for visa numbers will fall, and categories will advance substantially again.
But make no mistake. The actual demand for visa numbers far exceeds the supply. And filing I-485 application does not mean that a "green card" will be issued in the near future. See our analysis of how long a wait those who have already filed may still have.
When will I get my "green card?"
Now that your I-485 application for adjustment of status has been filed, the next logical question is "When will I get my green card?" Unfortunately, the answer is likely to be, "not for a very long time."
The numbers tell the story:
Only 140,000 visas (or adjustment of status applications) for employment based applicants can be granted in each year.
Subject to some adjustment for numbers flowing between categories, only 40,040 visas can be issued in the second (EB2) and third (EB3) employment based categories.
When an immigrant enters the U.S. as an EB3, with a spouse and two children, four visa numbers are used - not one. The average employment based immigrant family will use between two and three visa numbers. That means less than 70,000 families will enter the U.S. each year as employment based applicants - and fewer than 20,000 families based on an EB3 or EB2 preference category.
And it gets worse.
Each country is limited to no more than seven percent of the total of visas available, and if it appears that a country will use its full seven percent, their limits also apply within preference categories. That doesn't matter for most countries, but is critical for those from India or China. For instance, we believe there were over 20,000 I-485 applications already pending at the USCIS on June 1, 2007 for Indian EB3 applicants. And the State Department will only approve visa issuance for about 2,800 per year. That's seven year's worth of Indian EB3 applicants alone already on the USCIS shelf!
A prediction come true?
The USCIS Ombudsman, Prakash Khatri, issued his Annual Report to Congress on June 11, 2007 - before the July visa debacle. Here is what he has to say about wait times:
If the priority date became current today, due to delayed USCIS processing and thus underutilization of visa numbers, some have predicted that within a few months as many as 500,000 to 750,000 individuals now residing in the United States under a temporary worker visa could apply for a green card. Additionally, DOL's recent backlog elimination efforts, scheduled to be completed by September 30, 2007, are predicted to add 70,000 or more approved labor certifications yielding as many as 170,000 additional green card applications. As USCIS begins to complete these applications and request visa numbers from DOS, the 140,000 statutorily authorized visa numbers will be used. DOS then will be required to retrogress priority dates. Consequently, most applicants in this scenario will find themselves trapped where as they anticipated timely receipt of a green card, their wait exceeds seven or more years. In addition, all future employment-based green card applicants effectively would be barred from applying for many years.
And as long as the waits appear - they may turn out to be even longer. Before the USCIS began its project in June and July of seemingly processing cases wholesale, they were on course to use less than 110,000 of the 140,000 employment based visa numbers available this fiscal year. Although they have requested 68,000 visa numbers in the last 30 days (more than they requested in the first 8 months of the year), it remains to be seen if those numbers will be used - or will be returned to the State Department.
A wait of seven years - if 140,000 visa numbers a year are used - becomes even longer if only 110,000 a year get used.
But we hope its not really going to take that long - because we hope that the same forces which caused a reversal in the USCIS decision to cutoff I-485 fillings in July will force a change in the law. And those of you who helped overturn the USCIS decision, can help make this happen. We will be posting links to specific actions you can take to help make it happen.
http://kayevisalaw.com/8-9-07_Predictions_For_October.html
PREDICTIONS FOR OCTOBER 2007 PRIORITY DATES
FOR EMPLOYMENT-BASED IMMIGRANT VISAS - GOOD NEWS!
By: Allen E. Kaye
WASHINGTON, DC August. 2, 2007 - Government sources have advised us that we can expect more good news when the new pool of visa numbers is released for the fiscal year which begins on October 1, 2007. The priority date information listed is to be taken as educated predictions, not carved in stone. Expect the following:
I. Worldwide, other than India and China, EBI, EB2, EB4 and EB5 immigrant visa categories will be current as of October 1, 2007. It may be necessary to retrogress them later in 2007 or 2008.
2. EBI for India and China will likely be current in October, 2007.
3. EB2 for India and China will likely have a cut-off date in October, 2007 close to the cutoff dates for January, 2007, which were: India - January 8, 2003; China - April 22, 2005.
4. EB3 cut-off dates for October, 2007 also will likely have a cut-off date close to the cutoff dates for January, 2007, which were: Worldwide (other than India and China) -August 1, 2002; India -May 8, 2001; China - April 22, 2005.
Please note that these are predictions subject to change depending on the number of cases approved by USCIS during the next two months.
Other "Visa Gate" Factoids:
I. During fiscal year 2007 (October 1, 2006 through July 2007) USCIS processed over 18,000 EB3 cases for persons born in India and of that number, 8,000 were processed during June, 2007 and 7,000 were processed during July, 2007. This represents five years worth of allocated visa numbers. The annual limit for India is 2,800 per year in the EB3 category.
2. When the Visa Bulletin indicates that visas numbers are unavailable for an employment based category and country, H-I B applicants who have reached the six year limit in H-I B status may obtain three-year extensions under AC 21. This means if the Visa Bulletin reflects "U", the per-country limit has been reached.
3. The unofficial reports are that the Texas Service Center received approximately 40,000 1-485 applications during the first day or two in July and the Nebraska Service Center received approximately 35,000 1-485 applications during the same period of time.
4. During the first eight months of fiscal year 2007 (October 2006 through May, 2007) USCIS requested 66,600 EB visa numbers. During June and July, 2007 USCIS requested 66,800 numbers.
We will provide you with updates as they become available.
Thanks to my colleague Jan Pederson of Washington, D.C. for sharing this information with me for our readers.
Future visa availability
As of August 3, 2007, the USCIS had not returned enough visa numbers to have an impact on employment based visa availability for September. The September visa bulletin should be published around August 8th or 9th, and we predict "U" across the board in employment categories.
Our best prediction at this time:
In October - with the start of the new fiscal year - the situation changes. Worldwide, the first, second, fourth and fifth employment preference categories should be current. Third preference will have a cutoff date - and there may be cutoff dates for India and China in both second and third preference categories. We expect worldwide 3d preference to be backed up to mid 2002, and India to be mid 2001.
India 2nd preference may be around January, 2003. If China 2d preference is backlogged, the cutoff date should be around April, 2005.
Movement within preference categories for the remainder of the year will depend on how the USCIS requests visa numbers, and how they are able to deal with security clearance issues. IF USCIS uses its "new" practice of requesting visa numbers in advance of obtaining security clearances, movement may be very slow, and categories may retrogress further, If they go back to requesting visa numbers when an application is actually ready to be approved, AND if the logjam in security clearances continues, the USCIS demand for visa numbers will fall, and categories will advance substantially again.
But make no mistake. The actual demand for visa numbers far exceeds the supply. And filing I-485 application does not mean that a "green card" will be issued in the near future. See our analysis of how long a wait those who have already filed may still have.
When will I get my "green card?"
Now that your I-485 application for adjustment of status has been filed, the next logical question is "When will I get my green card?" Unfortunately, the answer is likely to be, "not for a very long time."
The numbers tell the story:
Only 140,000 visas (or adjustment of status applications) for employment based applicants can be granted in each year.
Subject to some adjustment for numbers flowing between categories, only 40,040 visas can be issued in the second (EB2) and third (EB3) employment based categories.
When an immigrant enters the U.S. as an EB3, with a spouse and two children, four visa numbers are used - not one. The average employment based immigrant family will use between two and three visa numbers. That means less than 70,000 families will enter the U.S. each year as employment based applicants - and fewer than 20,000 families based on an EB3 or EB2 preference category.
And it gets worse.
Each country is limited to no more than seven percent of the total of visas available, and if it appears that a country will use its full seven percent, their limits also apply within preference categories. That doesn't matter for most countries, but is critical for those from India or China. For instance, we believe there were over 20,000 I-485 applications already pending at the USCIS on June 1, 2007 for Indian EB3 applicants. And the State Department will only approve visa issuance for about 2,800 per year. That's seven year's worth of Indian EB3 applicants alone already on the USCIS shelf!
A prediction come true?
The USCIS Ombudsman, Prakash Khatri, issued his Annual Report to Congress on June 11, 2007 - before the July visa debacle. Here is what he has to say about wait times:
If the priority date became current today, due to delayed USCIS processing and thus underutilization of visa numbers, some have predicted that within a few months as many as 500,000 to 750,000 individuals now residing in the United States under a temporary worker visa could apply for a green card. Additionally, DOL's recent backlog elimination efforts, scheduled to be completed by September 30, 2007, are predicted to add 70,000 or more approved labor certifications yielding as many as 170,000 additional green card applications. As USCIS begins to complete these applications and request visa numbers from DOS, the 140,000 statutorily authorized visa numbers will be used. DOS then will be required to retrogress priority dates. Consequently, most applicants in this scenario will find themselves trapped where as they anticipated timely receipt of a green card, their wait exceeds seven or more years. In addition, all future employment-based green card applicants effectively would be barred from applying for many years.
And as long as the waits appear - they may turn out to be even longer. Before the USCIS began its project in June and July of seemingly processing cases wholesale, they were on course to use less than 110,000 of the 140,000 employment based visa numbers available this fiscal year. Although they have requested 68,000 visa numbers in the last 30 days (more than they requested in the first 8 months of the year), it remains to be seen if those numbers will be used - or will be returned to the State Department.
A wait of seven years - if 140,000 visa numbers a year are used - becomes even longer if only 110,000 a year get used.
But we hope its not really going to take that long - because we hope that the same forces which caused a reversal in the USCIS decision to cutoff I-485 fillings in July will force a change in the law. And those of you who helped overturn the USCIS decision, can help make this happen. We will be posting links to specific actions you can take to help make it happen.