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Nacara using less and less visas

H

House409

Registered Users (C)
I was able to find the latests stats regarding NACARA visa usage.

It seems they are not that many new applications (I counted around 60 per month).

I believe the tables gather the numerically limited (sec 202) and the non-numerically limited (sec 203) NACARA applications. So, for the numerically limited using theoretically up to 5,000 DV visas, there should be even less demand.

I am pretty confident DOS will allocate more than 50k DV visas for FY14. Probably not 55k, but something closer to 53.5k. Not that much more than for DV13, but any little extra can make a difference for the high CN selectees.:)

What do y'all think?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...agements/Asy-Cmltv-NACARA-Oct-Nov-Dec2013.pdf
 
Definitely agree. It sounds like the nacara program is winding down as most eligible people who wanted them have used them - it's been around a long time now. But why do you think they will not try for a total of 55k DV visas in total?
 
House409 said:
I was able to find the latests stats regarding NACARA visa usage.

It seems they are not that many new applications (I counted around 60 per month).

I believe the tables gather the numerically limited (sec 202) and the non-numerically limited (sec 203) NACARA applications. So, for the numerically limited using theoretically up to 5,000 DV visas, there should be even less demand.

I am pretty confident DOS will allocate more than 50k DV visas for FY14. Probably not 55k, but something closer to 53.5k. Not that much more than for DV13, but any little extra can make a difference for the high CN selectees.:)

What do y'all think?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...agements/Asy-Cmltv-NACARA-Oct-Nov-Dec2013.pdf
Click to expand...

I remember disscussing the nacara matter privately with simon, and his said to me that the debts was early paid!
And he gave me a number of about 400 to 800 visas, will be taken by nacara, thats why i table my calculation on 54k visas for dv.
 
Well, I see there are still new applications being received every month, and there are still several hundred cases pending.

I read once DOS is waiting toward the end of the year to re-allocate unused NACARA numbers to DV selectees.

It seems that what they did in Sept last year when the 'issued' count jumped significantly. There were also a lot of AP cases being finally granted visas. Those ones may have benefited from the unused NACARA visas during FY13.
 
vladek15425 said:
I remember disscussing the nacara matter privately with simon, and his said to me that the debts was early paid!
And he gave me a number of about 400 to 800 visas, will be taken by nacara, thats why i table my calculation on 54k visas for dv.
Click to expand...

Yes agreed - something like 53.5k-54k. Hopefully.
 
House409 said:
Well, I see there are still new applications being received every month, and there are still several hundred cases pending.

I read once DOS is waiting toward the end of the year to re-allocate unused NACARA numbers to DV selectees.

It seems that what they did in Sept last year when the 'issued' count jumped significantly. There were also a lot of AP cases being finally granted visas. Those ones may have benefited from the unused NACARA visas during FY13.
Click to expand...

Yes, I think the same here. For those countries that cut off by artificial limit during selection will have the first limit of 3500. And only in Sept when the quota from NACARA flow back to DV, whichever still in the run will get those quota. Usually will be the AP cases. I strongly believe Iran was first cut off with 3500 then their AP cases take additional 200+ from NACARA in Sept 13.
 
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if nacara will be used then Nepalese selectees having cases above 12k can have interview or not?or safe zone for nepal if it is so
mine is 126##.
 
shaambhabi said:
if nacara will be used then Nepalese selectees having cases above 12k can have interview or not?or safe zone for nepal if it is so
mine is 126##.
Click to expand...

This is how you can calculates your chances.

1. Take your CN # multiply by 40% = Number of Nepal selectees in that CN
2. Number of Nepal selectees in that CN multiple by 85% (success rate of Nepal) = Number of Nepal selectees the visa issue ranking.

12600 x .40 = 5040 x .85 = 4284

So, you are rank 4284 and Nepal can only have 3850 visas issue (assuming 100% NACARA flows back to DV). Hence, you are not in a good position. But this is just the calculation based on CEAC data up to 3700CN, thing might change from 3700 CN to 12600CN. So the only hope is selectees from Nepal from 6500 to 12600 CN are not as dense as 0 to 3700 CN. I still think Nepal will have much lesser selectees from 6500 to 13K compare to 0 to 3700CN, so there is still hope.

The good news is that in DV13, there is 4.3K selectees from Nepal and only 3.3K issued. So that mean it has 1K didn't return the forms to KCC so in DV14 I would expect more than 1K.
 
House409 said:
I was able to find the latests stats regarding NACARA visa usage.

It seems they are not that many new applications (I counted around 60 per month).

I believe the tables gather the numerically limited (sec 202) and the non-numerically limited (sec 203) NACARA applications. So, for the numerically limited using theoretically up to 5,000 DV visas, there should be even less demand.

I am pretty confident DOS will allocate more than 50k DV visas for FY14. Probably not 55k, but something closer to 53.5k. Not that much more than for DV13, but any little extra can make a difference for the high CN selectees.:)

What do y'all think?

http://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...agements/Asy-Cmltv-NACARA-Oct-Nov-Dec2013.pdf
Click to expand...


Yeah, I did some research on this a while back. I am confident that the old debt of visas is paid back by now, so the only cases that could go through are new applications or pending cases. New cases must be tiny - these are people that entered the USA in the early nineties! The pending cases are probably mostly dormant cases - they could come alive again, but probably won't. Really I think we are pretty likely to see just a few hundred NACARA cases this year - so depending on how many of those they let DV reclaim, 54K is very possible....

By the way, the late surge in cases in August and September is (I believe) more to do with the AP cases and the "2 minute warning" - the yanks love to do things at the last moment for some reason....
 
55000 dv - 1000 nacara = 54000 * 7% = 3780 visa available for Nepal
upto 6500 cases total Nepalese 2400 (my predict)
6500 to 11000 less nepalese dense
6500 to 11000 = 380 visa for Nepal
so that Nepalese 11 to 14K is safe zone ( 4000 * 25 % = 1000 )
shaambhabi said:
if nacara will be used then Nepalese selectees having cases above 12k can have interview or not?or safe zone for nepal if it is so
mine is 126##.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited by a moderator:
biratnagar said:
55000 dv - 1000 nacara = 54000 * 7% = 3780 visa available for Nepal
upto 6500 cases total Nepalese 2400 (my predict)
6500 to 11000 less nepalese dense
6500 to 11000 = 380 visa for Nepal
so that Nepalese 11 to 14K is safe zone ( 4000 * 25 % = 1000 )
Click to expand...

I really hope you are right but from 6500 to 11000 CN only have 380 selectees for Nepal is really slim in chance but not impossible. Let hope the distribution of selectees favor us and whoever still in the run.
 
please help me.......

hi britsimon....
im from sri lanka....my cn is 2014AS111**
my friend said that dont have any chances to get an interview...iam so sad....
how is my situation...? can you tell me any solution for this.....?
 
safrus said:
hi britsimon....
im from sri lanka....my cn is 2014AS111**
my friend said that dont have any chances to get an interview...iam so sad....
how is my situation...? can you tell me any solution for this.....?
Click to expand...

Your number is gold! You will definitly get an interview.
 
you will seriously get interview with such case.. coz main thing is u are not from Nepal and Iran
safrus said:
hi britsimon....
im from sri lanka....my cn is 2014AS111**
my friend said that dont have any chances to get an interview...iam so sad....
how is my situation...? can you tell me any solution for this.....?
Click to expand...
 
safrus said:
hi britsimon....
im from sri lanka....my cn is 2014AS111**
my friend said that dont have any chances to get an interview...iam so sad....
how is my situation...? can you tell me any solution for this.....?
Click to expand...

Your interview will be in July or Aug.
 
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