Making Sense of the Newly Released FY 2005 EB Numbers

[berkeleybee]

All,

If you go to Matthew Oh's excellent site (http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html) you have surely seen the newly released data on the number of EB and Family greencards issued in FY 2005 [http://travel.state.gov/pdf/FY05tableV.pdf]. There were 242,335 EB visas issued and 222095 family visas.

If the limit is 140,000 visas for EB, where did the rest come from? Well, from two places,

(1) There were about 11, 645 FB visas from FY 2004 that rolled over to EB in FY 2005

(2) Then according to a Gary Endelman article on ILW from 2/15/05, there were about 100,000 AC21 recapture visas left as of Feb 2005. Note that these were not used up in prior years because USCIS was not processing much between 2002-2004.

This new data release also allows us to calculate the EB and Family visa limit for FY 2006. By applying the spillover rule described in Appendix 1 of the 2004 Annual Flow Report [http://uscis.gov/graphics/shared/statistics/publications/FlowReportLegalPermResidents2004.pdf] I estimate that the FY 2006 limit for EB is 143,905 and the limit for Family is 267,215. Which is about 40% less EBs than FY 2005. These figures may be off by a bit if there are still some AC 21 recapture visas left.

Of course, none of this is really news since the November 2005 Visa Bulletin described this situation 40% reduction fairly accurately, even though at the time they didn't have a full set of stats. Note that Endelman's 100,000 and CIS 131,000 AC 21 visa recapture numbers don't seem to affect the percentage reduction figure. [http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_2712.html]

 

[can_card]

Confusing data? Open Question to USDOS and USCIS

The total of 242, 335 EB visas approved in 2005, includes one-time recapture of AC21 visas (131,000) from FY 1999 and 2000. Therefore, these total numbers are OK.

What surprise me is that Total number of EB1 was approved in FY 2005 was 66,344 compare to EB2 43,412. Therefore EB1 should have retrogressed more steep compare to EB2. From the year 2001 to 2004 both EB1 and EB2 approved numbers were almost same. Then, why is the steep retrogression for EB2 compare to EB1? It is important to note here that DOS is establising cutoffdate only by monitering the number of approvals in previous month rather that number of cases pending with CIS/DOL.

Another big doubt..In FY 2005, U.K is the TOP1 country in EB1 approvals (7200), comapre to India and China (about 6000 each). It is obivious U.K is the oversubscribing country. Why does DOS not established cutoff date for UK in EB1 and introduced cutoff date for India & China in FY 2006? It is so confusing.

Another Big Big Doubt. Out of 242,335 EB visas issued in FY 2005, EB2 consumed only 43,412 which is almost 28% of 140,000 yearly limit. The remaining 100,000 AC21 recaptured visa, that were approved does not contain EB2 Share at all. All the AC21 numbers approved in 2005 was consumed by EB3 and EB1. CIS has not approved any EB2 share in AC21 recapture visas. On top of that it has established severe retrogression for India and China in EB2 class. This is totally unfair for EB2 guys.

 

[akela]

So the new visa bulletien does explain few things

1. 242,335 visas for EB (and it went by the letter of the law, it captured as much of the AC21 visas in one go). The striking thing is that in it's history, USCIS had never granted more than 180k EB visa, they did work hard in the last few months (as they were saying just few months before 2005 September, that they had issued only 101k visas). Does this fit with the general experience. Do you think that you saw many people getting visas in the last few months of FY 2005. I don't doubt them, but it would be interesting to know what happenned!!

I will keep on updating it, more importantly, I will see if the assumptions that we all have made, how much of that is justified.

Thanks,

 

[kamrans]

Dear akela
I sent you a PM.

So the new visa bulletien does explain few things

1. 242,335 visas for EB-2!! (and it went by the letter of the law, it captured as much of the AC21 visas in one go). The striking thing is that in it's history, USCIS had never granted more than 180k EB visa, they did work hard in the last few months (as they were saying just few months before 2005 September, that they had issued only 101k visas). Does this fit with the general experience. Do you think that you saw many people getting visas in the last few months of FY 2005. I don't doubt them, but it would be interesting to know what happenned!!

I will keep on updating it, more importantly, I will see if the assumptions that we all have made, how much of that is justified.

Thanks,

 

[PB904207]

EB1 Calculation

Hi Akela,

would you like to make a prediction on EB1 dates for India, in the light of information made available most recently, where do you you see it progress in the next 3 months from Feb. 2004 ?

Regards

 

[akela]

01/26/2005: Good News for Visa Movement

AILA has reported the DOS advised AILA that "thanks? to" the decrease in demand for EB visa numbers from USCIS I-485 cases and 245(i) labor cases still being held in the Department of Labor, the visa number would progress forward as follows:
Worldwide EB-1 and EB-2: There will be no cut-off date for the these categories.
Worldwide EB-3: Unlike the DOS previous prediction that the large number of 245(i) filings would be filed during March and April 2001 and it would result in a surge of EB-3 number demand and would limit movement of the cut-off date, 245(i) cases still remain at the DOL and therefore there will be movement in EB-3 visa numbers.
India EB-1 and EB-2: It will continue a rapid movement for the next several months.
India EB-3: It will move ahead but may become limited down the road.
China EB-1 and EB-2: It will continue a rapid movement for the next several months.
China EB-3: It will stay at the Worldwide date.
What a good news!
http://www.immigration-law.com/Canada.html

 

[nishokie]

can_card keep in mind that EB3 category for nurses and PT's was current thru out the year so that is why more of the recaptured visas went to EB3 than EB2.

The total of 242, 335 EB visas approved in 2005, includes one-time recapture of AC21 visas (131,000) from FY 1999 and 2000. Therefore, these total numbers are OK.

What surprise me is that Total number of EB1 was approved in FY 2005 was 66,344 compare to EB2 43,412. Therefore EB1 should have retrogressed more steep compare to EB2. From the year 2001 to 2004 both EB1 and EB2 approved numbers were almost same. Then, why is the steep retrogression for EB2 compare to EB1? It is important to note here that DOS is establising cutoffdate only by monitering the number of approvals in previous month rather that number of cases pending with CIS/DOL.

Another big doubt..In FY 2005, U.K is the TOP1 country in EB1 approvals (7200), comapre to India and China (about 6000 each). It is obivious U.K is the oversubscribing country. Why does DOS not established cutoff date for UK in EB1 and introduced cutoff date for India & China in FY 2006? It is so confusing.

Another Big Big Doubt. Out of 242,335 EB visas issued in FY 2005, EB2 consumed only 43,412 which is almost 28% of 140,000 yearly limit. The remaining 100,000 AC21 recaptured visa, that were approved does not contain EB2 Share at all. All the AC21 numbers approved in 2005 was consumed by EB3 and EB1. CIS has not approved any EB2 share in AC21 recapture visas. On top of that it has established severe retrogression for India and China in EB2 class. This is totally unfair for EB2 guys.

 

[saras76]

Approvals in Late 04 and early 05

So the new visa bulletien does explain few things

1. 242,335 visas for EB (and it went by the letter of the law, it captured as much of the AC21 visas in one go). The striking thing is that in it's history, USCIS had never granted more than 180k EB visa, they did work hard in the last few months (as they were saying just few months before 2005 September, that they had issued only 101k visas). Does this fit with the general experience. Do you think that you saw many people getting visas in the last few months of FY 2005. I don't doubt them, but it would be interesting to know what happenned!!

I will keep on updating it, more importantly, I will see if the assumptions that we all have made, how much of that is justified.

Thanks,

akela,

I have been active in this forum for several years and can attest that there were a disproportinate number of EB3 approvals in the latter part of 04 and early January. Most of the left over EB3 with RD of 02 (mainly TSC), almost all 03 RD EB3 cases (TSC) and a majority of the 04 RD EB3 cases were approved within a span of 6 months. I was monitoring the TSC more than the other centers but know that CSC went on an approval ramage at that time also.

All this just makes me believe that there aren't that many pending cases with PDs prior to 01. This retrogression is based purely on the fear of 245i cases. There is some good news right now. Lets hope things move smoothly for the next few months.

regards,

saras76

 

[akela]

The only counter I can think (if they did follow the law), is that there were only so many EB-2 visas applied in 2005 and no one went home unsatisfied. They were accepting EB-2 till end of FY 2005. I do not know how long they were taking to adjudicate it, but apparently they were giving EB-2 visa to everyone.

What might have happened though, they goofed on EB-2 numbers and EB-2 ppl might end up paying a heavy price.

Humor me for a second, let's go with the assumption that everyone did the right thing, i.e. there was no discrimination or mistakes of any kind (which might be the most probable case). Then following observation holds --

People from India in US have a heavier concentration of EB-2, either they have master of Bachelor +5 when they applied for their GC

People from other countries (most notably UK, I suspect Europe), somehow fit into EB-1 (they are inter company transferee’s or even with same education and experience at a higher management level (and this is not a racist remark, just a probable observation))

People from 'other' nations are are more likely to be in EB-3 (maybe because they would not want to do master and then enter US, or not work for 5 years ).

So if these assumptions are right

Some Countries have more EB-1 or EB-3 and very less EB-2 (i.e. either ppl coming from say UK either qualify for EB-1 or qualify for EB3. So what is happening is, if someone from UK had a certain degree and experience, he would come to US only at a higher position than say an Indian. If he did not have a good qualification or enough experience, he would then come and qualify for EB-3, you see that pattern in many countries, like UK, Brazil etc.). Indians (and to some extent Chinese, but due to the economic situation there, less and less Chinese are coming to US, recently India overtook them as country that sent highest number of students) are more likely to come to US, have education and because of GC (or glass ceiling anyone!!) are more likely to be in EB-2 than in EB-1.

So, what is happening is, the highest contributor to EB-2 are Indians (53% of all numbers last year). Will it be fair to assume that all of (I mean over 90%) Indians that had LC approved by say last year in EB-2 (and EB-3 till the retrogression), have all been approved. Moreover maybe there is no EB-2 ROW pending. So in total last year there were indeed 40,000 EB-2 and all were granted GC.

If the above conclusion is right then read on,

The only backlog that existed due to April 2001 when everything was sent to BEC were these States, (ie at the state level and not DOL level. I am doing calculationfrom May 2002 perspective, for any other date, it's a easy calculation). Only these states had not cleared applications before May 2002.

(Please keep in mind that prior to April 30 2001, 90% of cases use to be non RIR, and after April 30, 2000, 90% of cases were RIR, I have no explanation for that, if any one can help please do)

In RIR category

NJ was processing May 2002
NY was processing Sept 2001
DC was May 2001
Illinois was April 2001
Alaska was 6/2001

In non RIR category (where I would assume that only 10% of cases filed were non RIR after April 2001. Guys please challenge this assumption)
CT says 09/1999
Rhode Island was 4/2001
NY was 4/2001
DC was 5/2001
Md, Atlanta, Indiana, Kansas, Missouri, Wisconsin, AK, LA, OK, Texas, CO, UTAH, CA, NM, Seattle, Idaho, Washington were 4/2001


Now we know that BEC are first doing RIR cases, and you know why Dallas is moving so fast, they have only Alaska effected by RIR backlog (where I believe some 2.5 ppl went on H1B), where as Philadelphia has NJ, NY, Illinois (any idea how many H1B would be in Illinois compared to say NY or NJ, thumb rule is NY gets 20% of all H1B). Now that settles the question is there conspiracy in why DBEC is processing fast compared to PBEC (This does not still rule out that Philli BEC might be lazy or morons or full of Martians who are known to be xenophobic). I suspect a similar situation at the DOL level. There are many more applications in prior years in PBEC than say DBEC

If I see from an Indian in EB-2, 2002 mid, I would assume that everyone whose labor was cleared last year got their GC i.e. they are not competing for any EB numbers. A big chunk of labor is coming from NY and IL. Rest other states, though they are still in BEC, a full 40% between April 2001 AND May 2002, have already received their GC. (This I gathered from visiting this forum and some others, who maintain a voluntary list of ppl who applied there GC and have reported back of their approval. I am stretching the science of statistics here, I am assuming that this sample is random (against voluntary) and indeed is representative)

Hope this helps

 

[can_card]

can_card keep in mind that EB3 category for nurses and PT's was current thru out the year so that is why more of the recaptured visas went to EB3 than EB2.

I agree. They alloted 50,000 visas to schudle A group (which is again EB3) from the recaptured numbers (131,000). Therefore, there was remaining 81,000 AC21 recaptured visas were available from FY 2001 to FY 2005. These numbers mainly should have been consumed by EB1 and EB2, as it was recaptured mainly from from those catagories. If there is no demand for this number from EB1 and EB2 group, then it should have been allocated to main-EB3 group. It is logic. However, there has been always huge demand for EB1 and EB2 numbers. Therefore my point is, there is no single EB2 case was approved from the recaptured numbers which is 81,000.

If you see, from FY 2001 to FY 2005 only 40,000 or less EB2 visas were approved per year. There is no account for EB2 share in recaptured numbers. This is big violation of law.

 

[akela]

Can Card please read my post above yours, what do you think, does it sound logical or am I missing something

 

[fimbria]

so do you guys mean lots of indians who applied in eb-2 who very lucky and had labour approved are already given g.c.this retro of dates is due to labours of people stuck in backlog?if so then the movement in this category should be fast.
do you expect if it moves atleast 6 months each bulliten by sept or so will the dates be current?last bulliten chine eb-2 progressed by 1 yr.
by the way my p.d is jan 2006,long way to go concerned a bit coz my spouse is on h-4 about to join residency ,but by the time she completes she will have used up all 6 yrs unless i can apply for 1-485 and include her name so she can get 7th yr ext.she is elligible till 2011.
so how many yrs i may have to wait for my ead atleast?my pd is 2006 jan.

 

[akela]

That's the point I am trying to make, most of retro in EB-2 are ppl in BEC. Moreover, ppl from states that did not go into BEC for the dates of 2002 or 2003, I guess they have been granted GC. I remember, in VA, people who had applied LC, 2-3 months before me got their GC a year ago!!

So if that is true, the movement should be faster. Now it is more important to model how many ppl are there in BEC, what is EB2 and EB3 distribution, per month distribution, per country distribution and lastly for any given month how many have already got their GC.

If you solve the above equation, we can also predict monthly movement (you can always guess a number of current ROW approval any given month from historical data). So guys challenge me on my numbers

Total number in BEC = 300,000 to 370,000 (anyone has a real figure)
Total 245i numbers = 150 k to 225 k (real number)
EB2:EB3 ratio = 29:71 (any reason to doubt that the historical averages do not apply)
Per month EB-2 visa available = 3300
Per month Visa alloted to ROW = 1300 (they used 15,000 total last year, I am assuming similar usage this year - A big assumption but for the time being lets go with it)
Per month Visa available for India and China in EB2 = 2000 (here we are of course assuming that ROW never retrogress, they have no reason to, and extra visa, as per law goes to over subscribed countries)
What is the distribution between India and China, is their any law, or is it FIFO irrespective of country. Last year it was 60:40) so lets say per month this ration holds true, 1200 EB2- Visa for Indians and 800 for Chinese.

Now the devil is, what is the monthly EB-2 distribution of visa in Backlog, and what is the country specific distribution. I have made guesses, but if anyone has better numbers, please let us know, we can go ahead and see if we can predict the dates. (The fact that PBEC and DBEC are proscessing different dates, makes calculation hard, but I guess, the law is that the earliest date that they find, they have to set date there, I wont be suprised, if the dates do move back in the future, though it would be temporary then. The PBEC then clearing labor of a more recent date does not effect our calculation.)
I have a distribution of one center in the second post of my Doing the math -2 thread. I do not know the source and hence do not know how accurate they are. But if one DOL had monthly distribution of application, maybe other DOL also had. If any1 have that info, then predicting things would be much more easy. It will take out lots of guess work.