Lets predict coming retrogression

What would be EB3 PD cutoff in October Visa bulletin

  • sometime 2006

    Votes: 1 2.6%

  • Mid 2005

    Votes: 4 10.3%

  • Mid 2004

    Votes: 8 20.5%

  • Mid 2003

    Votes: 17 43.6%

  • mid 2002

    Votes: 7 17.9%

  • Mid 2001

    Votes: 2 5.1%
  • Total voters
    39
  • Poll closed .
D

dollar500

Registered Users (C)
I am reviving this thread after new updates from USCIS/

Hi All,
As you all know that this current priority date situation (current for all categories) is temporary.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_3258.html

The visa bulettin mentions:

"However, all readers should be alert to the possibility that not all Employment preferences will remain Current for the remainder of the fiscal year. Should the rate of demand for numbers be very heavy in the coming months, it could become necessary to retrogress some cut-off dates for September, most likely for China-mainland born and India, but also possibly for Mexico and Philippines. Severe cut-off date retrogressions are likely to occur early in FY-2008. "

I think the FY 2008 means October 2008.

My prediction is (for India)
August 2007: All categories current
September 2007: EB2 June 2006, EB3 Jan 2006
October 2007: EB2 June 2005, EB3 Sep 2004.

Lets see how good is your prediction :)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Prediction for India
August 2007: Unavailable
September 2007: Unavailable
October 2007: EB2 2004 Q2, EB3 2003 Q2
 
I doubt

Justdoit:

I doubt that they'll make EB2/EB3 unavailable in Aug 2007. They'll give enough chance for everybody to file their 485s before they start retrogression again.
 
I am assuming they made the dates current to make sure the left over quota for current fiscal year is utilized. With dates current, they will receive hundreds of thousands of applications for 485 which will be probably 8-10 times more than the available quota. Hence, I think date will will become unavailable next month (or maybe Sep 07) until Oct 07 when the quota for next fiscal year is released.
 
you are right justdoit. The left over quota is nearly 40,000 according to official report 2007 (page 33)
http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/CISOMB_Annual Report_2007.pdf

If there are 10,000 Indian applicants (my calculated guess) each year...they;ll file nearly 40,000 EB2 (4 years retrogression) and 60,000 EB3 applications. (six years retrogression)...making a total of 100,000 applications.

if we delete 40,000 then there would be a forward movement of 2 years in each category...

EB2 would be Jan 2005
EB3 would be May2003

I change my prediction :)

By the way the cutoff date is defined by gc approvals and not by the cases filed. So it will still be fine in August 2007. We'll see.
 
Yes we will see a huge upsurge in I-485 filing in July but that not the only factor. Much depends on how many visa numbers are utilized (I-485 approvals) in June and early July. This will provide as a precursor to August PD movement.
 
I am seeing reports of 485 being approved in a couple months of filing lately. So, the INS is working fast in using up numbers.
Also, remember every country is limited to 7% of the quota. So, of the 40K remaining for this fiscal year, who knows how much is used for India and what's remaining. Even if we assume proportionate number of visa numbers are remaining for India - that means only 2800 (7% of 40K) visa numbers are available for India this fiscal year.
On an average 1 person takes up 2.5 visa numbers. So, only about 1120 (2800/2.5) Indian families can get 485 approved this fiscal year.
 
I dont think numerical limit counts for the unused. Regardless, you are right India will probably get only a small chunk of that number. (40,000)
 
FYI - Special Alert posted on immigration-law.com

06/27/2007: SPECIAL ALERT: I-485 Cap for FY 2007 Can Be Exhausted Before End of July? Then What Will Happen?

* According to the AILA, approximately 40,000 visas remain in all employment-based categories, other than EW, for FY2007, according to its sources, and that the USCIS has far more than 40,000 adjustment applications in the backlog queue that are ready for approval, not to mention the additional numbers which will be consumed in concular immigrant visa processing. It is thus possible that the cap may reach within a short period in July, even though no one can predict it until after July 2, 2007. The USCIS at this time does not have any policy announced with reference to July 2007 I-485 filings which are filed after certain date in July when the total number is exhausted. However, considering the fact that the USCIS currently rejects the "Other Worker" category I-485 applications even though June 2007 Visa Bulletin show current for certain applicants because the "other worker" category quota was exhausted on June 5, 2007. This raises a serious concern because as we reported earlier today, the USCIS appears to be picking up the speed of processing of backlog I-485 applications in anticipation of flood of July 485 applications. The USCIS hands may be tied, should the EB visa numbers for FY 2007 is exhausted before the end of July.
* The situation is particularly critical because of the USCIS decision not to accept the I-485 filings without the medical report. AILA demanded leniency but the USCIS reportely refused to accept such demand. Since medical report is "initial evidence" to I-485 filing, under the recent rule change, any I-485 filing with the medical report can be rejected or denied. Reports indicate that there are a huge backlog in scheduling medical examination in most of the areas in the country.
 
My lawyer told me today that USCIS might release amendment to July VISA bulletin, which will retrogress the dates.

She also told this news is in air and there is no guaranteed to happen.
 
manwithnoname said:
Yes we will see a huge upsurge in I-485 filing in July but that not the only factor. Much depends on how many visa numbers are utilized (I-485 approvals) in June and early July. This will provide as a precursor to August PD movement.
Click to expand...

FW2007 ends on Sept 30, 2007. What the quote above means that some visa numbers can still be trashed, if USCIS can not adjudicate and approve all 485 applications that are current.

For example, my application reached June 27, 2007, and my PD is July 2001. They may provide Notice of Receipt, and maybe Notice for FP (if I am lucky) before Sept 30. But if they have many more applications to adjudicate that arrived before mine, they may not approve my case before Oct 2007. So my case, that should have technically taken up a visa number from FY 2007, will now end up chewing a spot on FW 2008.

This is bad, because it just means that the visa numbers will be wasted not because there are no applicants, but because USCIS does not have staff to review and approve eligible applicants.

Am I sounding too pessimistic?:(
 
I hope INS takes PD into consideration and not just the RD of the application.
Does anyone have more insight on how INS picks up applications for processing.
So, If on July 1, they receive applications with PD JAN 01, 2002 and JAN 01, 2007; does the 2002 application gets any precedence or both are treated as equal (providing dates are current at the time)?
 
justdoit said:
I hope INS takes PD into consideration and not just the RD of the application.
Does anyone have more insight on how INS picks up applications for processing.
So, If on July 1, they receive applications with PD JAN 01, 2002 and JAN 01, 2007; does the 2002 application gets any precedence or both are treated as equal (providing dates are current at the time)?
Click to expand...

USCIS' processing is done strictly by RD. Obviously PD has to be current for approval. That's one of the reasons, it's important to have the I-485's with USCIS as early as possible in July.
 
uscis has to send records to fbi for name check
that means 2001 and 2002 does not matter

apart from all other processing that USCIS does itself, only when fbi gives a green signal, the case can be approved
it is said that 20% of applications received by fbi are returned with +ve response in a month.

so its possible that guy with PD of 2007 will get GC before guy with PD of 2002

But this is good
Why?
USCIS removed retrogression in july because they have a quota for a year
they divide it in 4 quarters, last quarter for 2007 is july to sept

last year they had quota, but they did not have enough green signals from fbi
so even though they had greencards, they did not have enough apps approvable, and the quota was wasted! ( i think the number was 8000)

so this year, whoever lucky guys who are in 20% will get Greencard sooner
and they will EAT less quota for next year, starting from oct 2007

bottom line?

apply I485 as soon as possible
enjoy EAD for spouse, AC21 etc etc

and relax!
dont worry about who got first and who didnt

samay se pahele, aur taqdeer se jyada kisi ko kuchh nai milta
(you wont get it before your time comes, and more than your luck allows)
 
Ooz:

Yes USCIS got to complete the 40000 visa numbers by September. I sincerely wish your case be processed ad per PD. If you do not get the approval before October, your case will be queued, and probably a visa number will be used from year 2008 quota. In that case you wont be taking a visa number from year 2007.

JustDoIt:

Processing by PD makes sense but does the logic remains valid when all PDs are current? Applicants (from retrogressed countries) before June had a earlier PD followed by later PDs in June. Hopefully these cases will be processed even if they go by RD (my assumption) before the July applicants. In near future the PDs will retrogress (particularly from India) that will force the processing as per PD (and not RD).
 
by the way one more clue that next month they are going to make the dates unavailable:

They have suspended premium processing for I-140s for month of July. Please note this is only for July and not for August. This means USCIS doesn't really care if they do premium processing for the month of August.

Reciept date wont work if these are current only for a month.
 
perm_eb2_wanted:

How do you justify that?? Do you realize - from India, applicants didn't get a chance to file I-485 with PDs as early as 2002? Therefore, a bit of retrogression is necessary for FIFO processing. With so many waiting in queue (BEC LC cases, recent PERM cases etc.) to file I-485, I am sure the PD will retrogress the very next month.
 
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