Labor Cert Backlog Update

[mdh3000]

Anyone see these numbers?

Oh Law Firm

Dallas (152,000+) Phily (169,000+)
Pending 33% 36%
Certified 33% 33%
Closed 21% 20%
Withdrawn 11% 08%
Denied 01% 02%

Completed 67%
Pending 33%

Here are some conclusions I think you can draw from these stats:

1. It looks like all the backlogged LCs should be cleared on time (Fall '07).

2. So far, only 1/3 of the LCs are being approved. A few are denied, but most are closed or withdrawn.

Anyone care to guess the impact this will have on visa dates?

NN

 

[Jackolantern]

What is the difference between "denied" and "closed"?

 

[mdh3000]

What is the difference between "denied" and "closed"?

My guess is that denied is just that, denied based on the content of the application.

Closed may refer to the lack of a reply to the 45-day letter.

Withdrawn is something initiated by the applicant.

NN

 

[saras76]

Uncertainty ..

Anyone see these numbers?

Oh Law Firm



Here are some conclusions I think you can draw from these stats:

1. It looks like all the backlogged LCs should be cleared on time (Fall '07).

2. So far, only 1/3 of the LCs are being approved. A few are denied, but most are closed or withdrawn.

Anyone care to guess the impact this will have on visa dates?

NN

mdh300,

These numbers are encouraging. If most of the applications are rejected or closed then fewer will make it to the 140 and 485 stage and fewer visas will be required. It will still take time but its better than 70% of them making it to the 485 stage. The other point is that there is no telling how many of the above are EB2 and EB3. Most of the pressure is on EB3 and this may reduce further once you take away the EB2's from the above approved labor pool. Add to that the number of people who have given up on their old labors and filed PERM and applied for 140 and few more will go away.

The problem will be labor substitution but the fewer the number of approved EB3 labors, the better for us.

Still, even a few thousand approved labors puts a huge strain on the visa numbers because very few visas are available for India EB3 and EB2. What we can hope for is that EB3 World becomes current sometime this year or early next year and then the extra visas start flowing into other EB3 categories.

At this point, its still a guessing game.

regards,

saras

 

[sfmars]

Anyone see these numbers?

Oh Law Firm



Here are some conclusions I think you can draw from these stats:

1. It looks like all the backlogged LCs should be cleared on time (Fall '07).

2. So far, only 1/3 of the LCs are being approved. A few are denied, but most are closed or withdrawn.

Anyone care to guess the impact this will have on visa dates?

NN

So 33% is pending cases, I am sure most of them are old traditional with PD 2001 or 2002. I think 95% of them will be certified, because BEC already has sent all 45 day letters and closed all cases who did not responded yet, the same with withdrawn cases.

Before BECs came up, DOL certified 60% and denied 40%.
I think that BEC's statistic will be the same or similar. It will be huge impact if LC substitution is not cancelled this year. Most of BEC's current pending cases are not for real people, they are for substitutions and filed from consulting companies some time around 2002.

 

[saras76]

Labor sub ..

So 33% is pending cases, I am sure most of them are old traditional with PD 2001 or 2002. I think 95% of them will be certified, because BEC already has sent all 45 day letters and closed all cases who did not responded yet, the same with withdrawn cases.

Before BECs came up, DOL certified 60% and denied 40%.
I think that BEC's statistic will be the same or similar. It will be huge impact if LC substitution is not cancelled this year. Most of BEC's current pending cases are not for real people, they are for substitutions and filed from consulting companies some time around 2002.

Lets hope that labor sub is banned before all these labors pour into the market.

 

[HOPE_GC_SOON]

Lab. Substitution should be banned

I agree with Saras..

With this huge no. of approvals coming out, there would be a big time Grey Market opertions going on for Approved labs... Already, I have seen my prev. employer dealing with it.

We should stop this trading at any cost.. otherwise, it would be worst nightmare than Retrogression..

Thanks,

Lets hope that labor sub is banned before all these labors pour into the market.

 

[greatgc]

I agree

The following is true.
Only if labor substituion is banned then employees won't have to worry joining other employer as for ex-employers the old ALC will do no good.

This idiotic rule of substitution needs to eliminated ASAP.




**********

I agree with Saras..

With this huge no. of approvals coming out, there would be a big time Grey Market opertions going on for Approved labs... Already, I have seen my prev. employer dealing with it.

We should stop this trading at any cost.. otherwise, it would be worst nightmare than Retrogression..

Thanks,