There are 3 issues to determine visa availability for next 4 months. It is very difficult for DOS to meet those and move the dates accordingly at the same time to meet the rules and regulation.
1. Anticipated demand based on BPC efforts – It is/was conservative step taken by DOS in last 2 years. DOS made slow movement of cutoff dates in previous months, based on anticipation of massive clearance of old LC from BPC. Because of that, lot of visas numbers may be available, as, this FY 2007 does not see much movement in cutoff dates compare to last year. That’s why they moved the EB3-Row by one year to consume as much as possible.
2. Actual Demand: Now only 4 months left. Even if a guy files a new 485 (due to recent approval of his very old LC by BPC) now his/her 485 may not get approved before the end of FY 2007. They need at least 4 to 6 months to process and approve newly filed 485s. Therefore they have to approve only the 485s that were filed already before retrogression kicked in, and pending due to retrogression. Therefore effect or demand of one year movement of EB3-ROW will reflect only in FY 2008. No one has any clue how the demand will be.
3. Minimizing wastage of visas: In order to maximize the usage of visas before Sep 2007 (unlike last year), they need to drastically move the cutoff dates. If they do so, there will be a tons of 485s will be filed and not able to adjudicated before the end of FY. Therefore only beneficial is who ever filed the 485 before retrogression kicked in. Next question is How far they move..?, it is a million dollar question. They may be taking a decision something similar to “filing 485 without PD or visa numbers” so that they can approve as much as possible to consume all the numbers before Sep 2007. If tons of 485s are eligible to be approved before Sep 2007, they may say “U” to all EB3 categories in Sep 2007 after issuing all visas without wastage.
Based on all this analysis on one can not come to any conclusion how far they move in June, July, Aug as DOS itself may not have any clue
.
1. Anticipated demand based on BPC efforts – It is/was conservative step taken by DOS in last 2 years. DOS made slow movement of cutoff dates in previous months, based on anticipation of massive clearance of old LC from BPC. Because of that, lot of visas numbers may be available, as, this FY 2007 does not see much movement in cutoff dates compare to last year. That’s why they moved the EB3-Row by one year to consume as much as possible.
2. Actual Demand: Now only 4 months left. Even if a guy files a new 485 (due to recent approval of his very old LC by BPC) now his/her 485 may not get approved before the end of FY 2007. They need at least 4 to 6 months to process and approve newly filed 485s. Therefore they have to approve only the 485s that were filed already before retrogression kicked in, and pending due to retrogression. Therefore effect or demand of one year movement of EB3-ROW will reflect only in FY 2008. No one has any clue how the demand will be.
3. Minimizing wastage of visas: In order to maximize the usage of visas before Sep 2007 (unlike last year), they need to drastically move the cutoff dates. If they do so, there will be a tons of 485s will be filed and not able to adjudicated before the end of FY. Therefore only beneficial is who ever filed the 485 before retrogression kicked in. Next question is How far they move..?, it is a million dollar question. They may be taking a decision something similar to “filing 485 without PD or visa numbers” so that they can approve as much as possible to consume all the numbers before Sep 2007. If tons of 485s are eligible to be approved before Sep 2007, they may say “U” to all EB3 categories in Sep 2007 after issuing all visas without wastage.
Based on all this analysis on one can not come to any conclusion how far they move in June, July, Aug as DOS itself may not have any clue
.