July visa bulletin thoughts

My analysis of India EB3

Guys and Gals,

It is truly puzzling that India EB3 is behind every other country now. I am not sure what the rationale is behind that. I understand that there are 245i cases pending but the majority of them are not from India. If 245is are truly flooding the system then World Wide EB3 should not have seen the movement to Oct 01. India EB3 has been retrogressed since OCT 05 and the only explaination is that most of the 7,000 visas alloted to India during the fiscal year have been used up or the DOS and USCIS expects them to be used up when the dates of India move thru April. They did the same for World Wide and China when they were in April but when they saw no flood of cases with April 2001 PDs, they started moving the dates for these countries. For India they are either being very cautious thru April or the most of the 7000 visas have been used up and they know that the remaining will get used up when India EB3 dates move thru April 01.

I think India EB3 will be moved to April 30th in the next bulletin (if there is no flood) and then if in August there is no flood India EB3 will be moved past April 01 and the move at that point maybe into June or July 01. On the flip side if a lot of India EB3 cases before April 15th 01 start coming thru then the dates will not move beyond April thru the rest of the fiscal year. If the dates move to the end of April 01 in the August bulletin then it will be slightly better news, if not then we are in for a long long wait.

As for Oct 06. There is growing concern that most of the pending labor cases in the BECs will flood the system later this year. That may eat up the numbers for fiscal year 07. Again this is speculation.

I know all this sounds really depressing but this is the most realistic analysis that I could come up with.

regards,

saras
 
Saras76, the bad news for us is that there are OVER 200K backlogged cases at the DOL. I think that is reliable news. It is a sure thing, not a speculation, that Mr. Carlson, "The Speed Bullet Man", IS ALREADY WORKING to eliminate the backlog and get the LC's in the next few months ready to USCIS I-140+I-485 processing. I don't know what to tell you.

"
06/11/2006: Welcome Address to Dr. William Carlson, Returning Chief of Office of Foreign Labor Certification

Tomorrow, Monday, June 12, 2006, Dr. William Carlson who was the former Chief of Division of Foreign Labor Certification will return to the post and the current Interim Chief will be reassigned to another position. Dr. Carlson took over the Chief of DFLC during the time when DOL had a difficult mission and task of sipping through over one thousand comments to the proposed PERM regulation and finalization of the current PERM and BEC regulations. Additionally, he was instrumental in organizing the teams of PERM and BEC national centers and implementing the most challenging task of launching online filing system of PERM and transforming the old labor certfication into a national processing system in the name of BEC, all on March 28, 2005. Launching a reengineering system always involves some trials and errors, and the labor certification reengineering was no exception. Some faults in the initial computer decision matrix system produced massive denials of the initial applications. On the backlog reduction side, transformation of the traditional two-tier (State-Federal) labor certification into the national processing system experienced some pains and aches, causing delays in laying down the ground work for adjudication of the backlog labor certification cases. Immediately prior to his departure from the post in August 2005, he was successful in fixing the decision matrix problem and initiating the process of the final determination by the officials and not letting the machines alone to decide the applications. This was a tremendous achievement in bringing the PERM labor certification into a workable process and leading to the current successful management and operation of the PERM program with no serious faults. For the BECs, the pains have continued, but there is a sign that the BEC system is shaping up and moving into the proper operational mode. The sign is detected from the pace of recent processing of 45-day letters and adjudication of backlog cases. The consumers now see increased number of large white envelopes in their mail boxes. The process is expected to improve substantially when the BECs complete data entries at the end of June 2006. The consumers may experience a new chapter of backlog processing before the end of the year.
Dr. Carlson is returning to the post to finish up the program which he initiated at a difficult time. We are confident that he will carry on the task successfully in the next 16 months, removing all the backlog cases of over 200,000. As the ground work will be completed in the PERM system and BEC system in the next couple of months, we wish to urge Dr. Carlson to initiate and improve the"
saras76 said:
Guys and Gals,

It is truly puzzling that India EB3 is behind every other country now. I am not sure what the rationale is behind that. I understand that there are 245i cases pending but the majority of them are not from India. If 245is are truly flooding the system then World Wide EB3 should not have seen the movement to Oct 01. India EB3 has been retrogressed since OCT 05 and the only explaination is that most of the 7,000 visas alloted to India during the fiscal year have been used up or the DOS and USCIS expects them to be used up when the dates of India move thru April. They did the same for World Wide and China when they were in April but when they saw no flood of cases with April 2001 PDs, they started moving the dates for these countries. For India they are either being very cautious thru April or the most of the 7000 visas have been used up and they know that the remaining will get used up when India EB3 dates move thru April 01.

I think India EB3 will be moved to April 30th in the next bulletin (if there is no flood) and then if in August there is no flood India EB3 will be moved past April 01 and the move at that point maybe into June or July 01. On the flip side if a lot of India EB3 cases before April 15th 01 start coming thru then the dates will not move beyond April thru the rest of the fiscal year. If the dates move to the end of April 01 in the August bulletin then it will be slightly better news, if not then we are in for a long long wait.

As for Oct 06. There is growing concern that most of the pending labor cases in the BECs will flood the system later this year. That may eat up the numbers for fiscal year 07. Again this is speculation.

I know all this sounds really depressing but this is the most realistic analysis that I could come up with.

regards,

saras
Click to expand...
 
India
July
eb1 01jan06
eb2 01jan03
eb3 15apr01

June
eb1 01jan06
eb2 01jan03
eb3 08apr01

May
eb1 01jul05
eb2 01jan03
eb3 01mar01

Apr
eb1 01jan05
eb2 01jul02
eb3 01feb01

========================================
i was really hoping that eb2 india wud move by 6 months or atleast
not be stagnant at the same date for 3 months. doesnt look like our
hopes account for much. anyways i think eb2 india might be stuck where
it is right now right till the beginning of the next fiscal year (october).
i was wondering what everybody thought of reclaiming unused numbers
coz my interpretation is that maybe there will be no unused numbers
from the other categories.

eb1 india is stuck too. so any unused numbers in that category will
not trickle to the next category during the last quarter of the year.
(july-september)

eb2 india might not get a whole lot of unused numbers either, since
china eb2 is not yet current. when they become current maybe not many
numbers will be left and looks like per country limit has already kicked in
for india in all categories.

eb3 india the movement is so slow that it hardly accounts for anything.
i wonder how many people became current in july from this category. all
i can say is hang in there.

again i think unless laws change or miraculously all other categories
become current there maybe be little hope for forward movement. i sure do wish that they dont go backward.

as for my plan i will probably pop up again around second friday of next
month and hope for a miracle. good luck to those who became current. and
best wishes and peace to the rest.
 
200K pending labors

marlon2006 said:
Saras76, the bad news for us is that there are OVER 200K backlogged cases at the DOL. I think that is reliable news. It is a sure thing, not a speculation, that Mr. Carlson, "The Speed Bullet Man", IS ALREADY WORKING to eliminate the backlog and get the LC's in the next few months ready to USCIS I-140+I-485 processing. I don't know what to tell you.

"
06/11/2006: Welcome Address to Dr. William Carlson, Returning Chief of Office of Foreign Labor Certification

Tomorrow, Monday, June 12, 2006, Dr. William Carlson who was the former Chief of Division of Foreign Labor Certification will return to the post and the current Interim Chief will be reassigned to another position. Dr. Carlson took over the Chief of DFLC during the time when DOL had a difficult mission and task of sipping through over one thousand comments to the proposed PERM regulation and finalization of the current PERM and BEC regulations. Additionally, he was instrumental in organizing the teams of PERM and BEC national centers and implementing the most challenging task of launching online filing system of PERM and transforming the old labor certfication into a national processing system in the name of BEC, all on March 28, 2005. Launching a reengineering system always involves some trials and errors, and the labor certification reengineering was no exception. Some faults in the initial computer decision matrix system produced massive denials of the initial applications. On the backlog reduction side, transformation of the traditional two-tier (State-Federal) labor certification into the national processing system experienced some pains and aches, causing delays in laying down the ground work for adjudication of the backlog labor certification cases. Immediately prior to his departure from the post in August 2005, he was successful in fixing the decision matrix problem and initiating the process of the final determination by the officials and not letting the machines alone to decide the applications. This was a tremendous achievement in bringing the PERM labor certification into a workable process and leading to the current successful management and operation of the PERM program with no serious faults. For the BECs, the pains have continued, but there is a sign that the BEC system is shaping up and moving into the proper operational mode. The sign is detected from the pace of recent processing of 45-day letters and adjudication of backlog cases. The consumers now see increased number of large white envelopes in their mail boxes. The process is expected to improve substantially when the BECs complete data entries at the end of June 2006. The consumers may experience a new chapter of backlog processing before the end of the year.
Dr. Carlson is returning to the post to finish up the program which he initiated at a difficult time. We are confident that he will carry on the task successfully in the next 16 months, removing all the backlog cases of over 200,000. As the ground work will be completed in the PERM system and BEC system in the next couple of months, we wish to urge Dr. Carlson to initiate and improve the"
Click to expand...

marlon,

I agree that there are 200K labor cases pending in the BECs but a majority of them are from 2002 onwards so they really should not play into the 2001 numbers. However, the DOS and USCIS are only concerned about the 200K pending cases and historical data is telling them that about 50% of these are probably from India. This fear will doom India thru 2001.

regards,

saras
 
Do we know if majority of these are EB3 or Eb2??



saras76 said:
marlon,

I agree that there are 200K labor cases pending in the BECs but a majority of them are from 2002 onwards so they really should not play into the 2001 numbers. However, the DOS and USCIS are only concerned about the 200K pending cases and historical data is telling them that about 50% of these are probably from India. This fear will doom India thru 2001.

regards,

saras
Click to expand...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top