If S2611 fails !!

[Sumanitha]

I was just wondering what will happen if this current immigration bill (S2611) introduced by Senator Spector fails to pass the House...

My prediction is end of October 2006, may be the PD will go to May 2001.
2006 July VB - April 15, 2001
2006 Aug VB - April 22, 2001
2006 Sep VB - April 29, 2001
2006 Oct VB - May 1, 2001

(Until and otherwise it doesnt happen like last year going to Unavailable status.)

After 2006 October, what I feel is it may make a 3 month movement mostly every month from October to Mar of each year and then one month from April to Sept of each year.

This is my wild calculation without considering any visa number allocations or doing any mathematical calculations.

Please post your thoughts...

 

[saras76]

Do not stress out so much ...

I was just wondering what will happen if this current immigration bill (S2611) introduced by Senator Spector fails to pass the House...

My prediction is end of October 2006, may be the PD will go to May 2001.
2006 July VB - April 15, 2001
2006 Aug VB - April 22, 2001
2006 Sep VB - April 29, 2001
2006 Oct VB - May 1, 2001

(Until and otherwise it doesnt happen like last year going to Unavailable status.)

After 2006 October, what I feel is it may make a 3 month movement mostly every month from October to Mar of each year and then one month from April to Sept of each year.

This is my wild calculation without considering any visa number allocations or doing any mathematical calculations.

Please post your thoughts...

Sumanitha,

If this bill fails then the future does look bleak but there is no point in worrying about something that may or may not happen in the future. The important thing is to "NOT" make any decisions based on the GC approval. We need to carry on with our lives without depending on the GC or hoping on getting it anytime soon. Thats how I am going about things. If it will take 5 years then it will take five years, what can you or I do about it. We can make our current lives miserable by thinking of all these gloom and doom scenarios. I try not to do that ..

regards,

saras

 

[marlon2006]

Sumanitha, my approach is this:

- I am selectively looking for opportunities now and gathering more info on how to trigger AC21.

- If in September things don't improve and visa bulletin doesn't advance to 2002, I would actively look for other opportunities.

If you come accross opportunities to take a masters degree, buy a house, etc. I would do it. I know you may not have EAD yet, so you may not be able to change jobs.

Visa bulletins are unpredictable. The bill S.2611 outcome is even more unpredictable. When one switches to EB2 and thinks that would move forward, then it may get stuck as well. Moreover, if it is true that visa availability is not the direct issue related to the cut-off dates, but rather the manipulation of dates are a result of lack of USCIS manpower to finish the workload, then not even increase in visa numbers would necessarily resolve the issue in the short-term. I have no idea. No one knows.

I was just wondering what will happen if this current immigration bill (S2611) introduced by Senator Spector fails to pass the House...

My prediction is end of October 2006, may be the PD will go to May 2001.
2006 July VB - April 15, 2001
2006 Aug VB - April 22, 2001
2006 Sep VB - April 29, 2001
2006 Oct VB - May 1, 2001

(Until and otherwise it doesnt happen like last year going to Unavailable status.)

After 2006 October, what I feel is it may make a 3 month movement mostly every month from October to Mar of each year and then one month from April to Sept of each year.

This is my wild calculation without considering any visa number allocations or doing any mathematical calculations.

Please post your thoughts...

 

[gcstrat]

It is not the end of world

Sumanitha

It would be a set-back but it is NOT the end of world.

Regards
GCStrat

 

[gravitation]

If CIR does fail...

The reason EB3 dates have been moving forward recently is that i245's haven't started filing their I-485's yet. BEC's have started advertising for i245 applications. They should start generating significant number of i245 approvals in a quarter. They'll then file for I-140's and get approvals in 8-9 months. I-140 approvals are taken into account for deciding the PD movement. So in a year from now, or sometime before that, i245's will file for I-485 en masse and the second wave of retrogression will hit and pin the EB3 PD's to May 1st 2001.

Before all that happens, however, PD will keep inching forward every month. Some people with PD's falling in 3rd or even fourth quater of 2001 may have a shot at filing I-485. They'll not get GC's soon but will be eligible for AC21.

Once i245 start emerging from the other end of I-140 pipeline, EB3 PD for all nations will remained pinned between Apr 15-May 1st. It'll not be a long winter; It'll be an ice age. It could be 5-10 years before any significant movement. CIR -surely a long shot- is the only hope.

Please feel free to criticize the reasoning above. I'll be happy if I'm wrong.

 

[madgu-gc2005]

Sumanitha,

If this bill fails then the future does look bleak but there is no point in worrying about something that may or may not happen in the future. The important thing is to "NOT" make any decisions based on the GC approval. We need to carry on with our lives without depending on the GC or hoping on getting it anytime soon. Thats how I am going about things. If it will take 5 years then it will take five years, what can you or I do about it. We can make our current lives miserable by thinking of all these gloom and doom scenarios. I try not to do that ..

regards,

saras

Hi saras and others

Please see the link below
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5428461

Senate Takes Step Toward Immigration Vote

Is it the bill related to S2611. I am not aware of this.

 

[gcWudBeHere]

Buying a house may not be a good idea - at least now

Sumanitha, my approach is this:

- If in September things don't improve and visa bulletin doesn't advance to 2002, I would actively look for other opportunities.

I like Marlon's idea of taking advantage of the educational opportunities here in US while waiting for GC. Business schools in US are rated among the top schools in the world. No doubt, one would have a wonderful life after obtaining a MBA from a top school. On the contrary, think of the competition one would face to get admitted to one of the IIM's in India. Crazzyyy cowww!!

I dont think the same is true about MS degree. It may add an item to one's already long list-of-items of educational degrees, but may not serve the purpose of long term value addition in life.

On the other hand, investing in US in the form of homes, stocks, and/or expensive vehicles may not be wisest thing to do at this time. US deficit has increased exponentially. The geopolitical scenario changed against US in the last few years. War with Iraq, proposed war with Iran, twin deficits with China, Japan, wide acceptance of EURO etc all support the speculation of dollar devaluation. One dollar ($1) today may only value few cents in the future. At that point, banks may start raising interest rates, demand more monthly payments, and in the worst cases confiscate the fixed assets/property (like homes, autos, etc).

The danger is imminent. It is not an "if", but when - its only matter of time. So watch out friends. Make an informed decision. Become vigilant.

All our eyes seem to be wide shut!!