how does the surplus spillover work ?

[gc_tx_2003]

how does the surplus spillover work ?

Gentlemen/Ladies,

From the posts that I have been reading -- it sounds like the 2800 number / year for EB2 and EB3 is paltry compared to the demand.

If anything were to happen for the indian nationals, it has to come from the surplus spilling over from the categories above, and the REST of the world.

With regards to that, I had a few questions -- and your insights would be appreicated.

1. How exactly does the spill over work ? In one of the threads I read something like every quarter.

Does it mean the 3rd ( last month of every quarter ) -- what that would mean in that -- there would be significant forward movement -- in the bulletins of Nov -- for Dec ( third month for the quarter - Dec bulletin ) , and similarly in the months of Feb ( March bulletin ) -- May ( for June bulletin ), and Aug ( For Sep bulletin ).

Because -- the September bulletin is the last chance to use the surplus spillover if any from the categories above and the rest of the world ( if infact they are current ).

Have we seen this trend in the past months ?

2. If the every quarter division -- has not been held true -- then should we expect a large movement in the Sep bulletin ( as that is the last chance for the spillover visas ),atleast in the categories where the ROW is current ?. otherwise, the numbers go waste -- for the year, would it NOT ?.

3. The reason I raise this is because -- the 2800 number -- i think is just paltry with respect to the demand. Is there anyway of knowing how many EB visas have been issued for this year so far ?

4. I know this is a stupid question -- but anyway I am going to ask -- when possibly can I expect EB2 July 2003 to get a chance to file for EAD ?
My hope was there might be a chance Sep bulletin -- and then it retrogressing back towards the end of the year. We know Aug is not going to move.

EB2 / RIR
PD: July 2, 2003
LC App : Sep 26, 2005
I-140 App : Apr 2006

 

[techy2468]

I think they apply the spillover number to retrogressed countries categories based on some predictive analysis (they try to predict the demand in other categories...and if they feel the demand is not much they use the number for retrogressed categories/countries).

they do not want other categories and countries to go without visa in case they used those numbers for retrogressed categories/countries.

thats why they may be able to do the spillover calc every quarter.....otherwise....they would have to wait till last one month or two month to apply the spillover....

all this is just my assumption...on how it should be done....i am not sure what method uscis uses.

but i am expecting things to move a bit in sept bulletin.


i need to confirm one more thing...

lets say they get spillover from higher category...EB1....this will be applied to EB2(irrespective of country limit).....to make sure every country in EB1 and EB2 get the visas.....then if there is surplus it will go to EB3...

but when a spillover is applied....non retrogressed countries must be given preference....that means ROW EB3 will move very fast since they will get preference

is above assumption right?

 

[Yooklid]

I think the big question is:

"Is the spillover 'Horizontal' or 'vertcial'?"

ie will EB1 WW spill over into other non current EB1 categories regardless of the cap on country of origin (Horizontal), or will it pass over these countries that have hit their cap and go straight to EB2(Vertical)?

 

[techy2468]

I think it must be going EB1 to EB1, due to which we can notice that EB1 tends to move faster for all countries....and it stays current for most.

in other words if EB1 of one country uses up all the quota of a country.....then EB2 will have to wait for spillover....from EB2-row, and same rule for EB3.

but since uscis does not have all the information on their finger tips(and since they dont care that lives of humans are in their hand....for them its just a f***ng, boring job...)...they seldom follow this logic strictly.....most of the time they apply things randomly and then correct it later...

 

[Yooklid]

I think it must be going EB1 to EB1, due to which we can notice that EB1 tends to move faster for all countries....and it stays current for most.

Perhaps, but also due to the fact that by their nature the spread of candidates from EB1 down to EB3 with look like a pyramid. There will be a lot more EB3s than there ever will be EB1s. Unless of course, every single Ph D on the planet applies.

in other words if EB1 of one country uses up all the quota of a country.....then EB2 will have to wait for spillover....from EB2-row, and same rule for EB3.

That's my understaning also, the spill over is horizontal in nature. ie All EB1 and EB2 will have to become current before there is any spill over into EB3.

but since uscis does not have all the information on their finger tips(and since they dont care that lives of humans are in their hand....for them its just a f***ng, boring job...)...they seldom follow this logic strictly.....most of the time they apply things randomly and then correct it later...

Such are government operations the world over....

 

[techy2468]

i totally agree with you yooklid..........but expectation from a gov of number one country was slightly high....and hence the disappointment at their apathy...