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Here’s why Asians with high Case Numbers should not give up hope – just yet. PLEASE R

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darkhorse

New Member
I know it can be very depressing when your luck has chosen you amongst hundreds of thousands of lottery entrants but you still might not get a chance to interview because of your high case number. It’s going to be one long and hard year, waiting and hoping that your number will be called for an interview – and to add to that agony – you have to put your life on hold.

I am also in such a situation, I just finished high school – graduated with very good marks and scored highly on the TOEFL, SAT and the SAT II – and I am in the process of applying to colleges in the United States. And I will probably get into a good liberal arts college with a good financial aid package (that really is the least of my worries right now – I am confident that I will get in) but all of that might be of no use.

Why? Because I won the DV Lottery (in fact I came to know of it when I was giving my final exams) but I have a high case number ~ 28100 (2009AS280XX). Now I am really hoping that I can get an interview slot and get the visa because if I do not – I will not get a student visa because I have shown immigrant intent.

But all hope is not lost yet – Here’s why.
 
First there are some things that we need to understand.

1. “Current” means that everyone from the region which is current who have not yet got a chance to interview will get a chance. KCC is no fool – they will not make a region current unless they are sure that there are enough visa numbers left for everyone remaining, otherwise they will give a cutoff number.
2. A single country can not get more than 7% of the total available visas – that is 3500.
3. The number of winners from Asia – 14002 does include dependents as well – that is why the folks are KCC are so strict about us including our family members when we make the initial lottery entry – they want to be certain about the number of people who do end up getting the visa. Remember that there are only 50,000 Diversity Visas available (this is due to the NACARA program) and the dependents count towards this number.

And the case numbers for Asia in DV-09 have definitely shifted upwards – I called KCC and I casually asked the lady whether she had noticed the trend too and she said that even she had noticed that indeed the case numbers for Asia were a little different(trended upwards) this time as compared to DV-08. Now the important thing that we have to remember here is that the number of winners has not gone up, in fact it is slightly less than DV-08 which was 14142.

According to what I know so far, the highest case numbers for Asia in DV-08 was somewhere in the region of ~ 18,000. And for 2009, the highest Case Number that I have seen with my very own eyes is ~ 39,000. (I am from Nepal)
 
And in 2008, everyone got a chance to interview – at least in Nepal – this because Asia was current. And I’m sure that this was the case in every other country except Bangladesh which ran up against the 7% limit. (There were about 6,000 winners from Bangladesh)

Now you might be tempted to think that they have mixed the numbers for different regions – but that is not the case.

And you might think that they have somehow changed the numbering system that they had in the previous years, but that is also not the case.

One thing to notice is that there is definitely a spread in the numbers – even in 2008, the 14,000 odd numbers were spread at around 18,000 slots. And this year – the 14,000 odd winners from Asia that we have are spread at about 40,000 slots.

Now, you might be wondering why the Visa Bulletins are not moving rapidly for Asia.
But here is the crucial point – the spread appears to be greater towards the back. I am just suspecting this – but analyzing this mathematically, it indeed appears to be so. (Just look at Africa for example – they moved about 8,000 slots in Aug. 08 and about 15,000 slots in September 08 – proving that the spread is greater towards the back – and also that freezing up of 7% countries frees up numbers for others)

And is this theory is indeed right – the numbers will move faster later during the year.
 
Now there will be many people here – negative and nasty people like Tazmania and Raevsky who will tell you otherwise and tell you that this is not all true – but what do they care about you and me – they already have their visas. Don’t listen to them. I honestly have put a lot of thought into what I am saying and believe that it is true.

Now of course, I might be wrong – I am not KCC and I am just 19 – but the overwhelming weight of the evidence does point towards what I say.

But anyways, Asia has been Current in the last months two since DV- 06. (Only in Sept. in 06 though). I am not exactly sure about these – going check those for yourselves but most importantly Asia went “Current” in August and they in DV-08 had about 100 more winners than us. And this year, though sadly for our friends from Bangladesh who have 6,023 winners (only 3,500 of them will end up getting a visa), the region will go hopefully go current in August with the exception of them.

This is actually a big factor in Asia – because out of 14,000 winners, 6,000 are from BG.

And there are many other factors too – people in front you getting disqualified (For god knows how many reasons including wrong photos, biographical errors, typos, education, public charge, false documents and so on). And then there are some people who do not pursue a visa. To add to that, though unfortunately, our friends from countries like Iran with higher CN’s end up in long security clearance procedures and do not end up getting a visa approved before September 30, 2009.

Actually Asia only gets about 7,000 visas annually – and the only way it can go “Current” with 14,000 winners is because of the Bangladesh factor – and people in the front getting disqualified.

So cheer up, and don’t lose hope even if you have a high case number (Not if you are from BG or state sponsors of terror though; sadly) – actually it won’t matter what case number you have – just look at the 2008 stats.

And in fact, never have all the 50,000 visas have been used up completely – AND THOSE FOLKS HAVE AN OBLIGATION TO GIVE OUT ALL OF THOSE 50,000 VISAS.

And as for me – I am also applying to universities in Germany – just in case. I mean of course the US would have been a great place to study – but how I do in life depends completely on me, whether I am in Europe or America.

And actually in life it really does not matter where you end up as long as you believe in yourself and have that talent – you’ll do well anywhere.

Stop worrying – even if you don’t end up getting a DV – life has a lot to offer. Let’s not get into the philosophical argument here though.

Hope that helps.
 
And people don't listen to alemitmee, that guy is going to give you an optimistic answer in any darn situation -- i'm sure he means no harm -- but he's too optimistic.
 
Darkhorse,

You will have your Green Card dont worry...
KCC has never given 50,000 Green Card. You'll be in.
Stop stressing out.
And why do you have to open 2 different threads for the same topic?
 
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