Guess when does 485/0202 start

Feb will start by 15th Aug.

As per rupnet about 25% of Jan 02 cases has been touched. When this nears to 40% we can see Feb Approvals.

My Predictions:

Feb 02 Cases - Starts around Aug 15th 2003
Mar 02 Cases - Starts around Oct 1st 2003
Apr 02 Cases - Starts around Nov 15th 2003
May 02 Cases - Starts around Jan 1st 2004
 
According to sbctsublc's

January Stats on July 11 which is far more accurate than rupnet because of a full sample size, the January touched rate is 15% (app.) + 19% (transferred) + 10 % (RFE). That mounts to 44%.

Feb. actually has a touch rate of 19%. (6% app + 11% tr + 2% RFE).
 
Forget about 19%, I don't think even 9% of February cases are touched. There might be some mistake in the program. Based on
a EAC number (or onine message) you can not tell the Receipt date of an application.

BCIS is too unpredictable to make any predictions on feb'02 cases. But my gut feeling is Feb'02 approvals will start coming (in this forum) from August second week. It's a optimistic view.
 
if we go acc to sen_gc estimation and which seems more reasonable
As he is taking 1 1/2 months time to approve each month 485 RDs.
But if they start processing Mar 02 in 01 Oct 2003 and Apr 02 in Nov 15th 2003. Most of the March and April filers would have passed 15 months on FP. And if BCIS sticks to there rule of 2nd FP after 15 months, whole bunch of people will get 2nd FP call which implies henceforth everyone will get 2nd FP notice.
If they are going to take so long either they should not send 2nd FP calls or approve the cases of FEB/MAR/APR/MAY at earliest.


I would love( well not in our hand - As they say WISHES WERE HORSES THEY WOULD RIDE) to see speedy approval
and hope they knock down i.e. Approve everyone

Jan RD - Aug 07th
Feb RD - Sep 15th
Mar RD - Oct 15th
Apr RD - Nov 15th

I really hope some Miracle
 
Approvals will pickup after may

I think approvals will pickup after MAY 2002 has been processed. The reason for this is less number of 485 filings from may till now. This is due to the fact that people in New jersey, NY, MD, VA got stuck up in their labour process for last two years. Some of these states are still processing April 2001.

I hope my calculations are right and we get approved fast

Msomani
 
it doesn't matter when it starts

INS left a bunch of case untouched even though it looks like the processing is move ahead. look at the people with Oct. Nov. Dec. RD
if you are not lucky enough, you may end up in the other waiting line, unless INS doing predictable work, it doesn't matter when a particular month starts.

if you are lucky enough, then you should buy lottery to win big money and forget about the stupid GC stuff:D
 
Re: According to sbctsublc's

Originally posted by robertx71
January Stats on July 11 which is far more accurate than rupnet because of a full sample size, the January touched rate is 15% (app.) + 19% (transferred) + 10 % (RFE). That mounts to 44%.

Feb. actually has a touch rate of 19%. (6% app + 11% tr + 2% RFE).
Click to expand...

just curious, can you tell me where and how did you get these break down numbers ? (15* + 19% + 10%)
 
Dsatish,
Can you elaborate why you think the program of stcsblc is wrong. It kind of fits with the data being presented on this forum.
 
Rfellow

Data on Rupnet is based on ND/EAC # and not on RD.

Therefore, Feb cases shown in Rupnet as approved could be Jan RD.

Lets hope we all get approved soon. Good Luck to all of us.
:)
 
My guess is that processing will slow down again after July 2002 cases because that's when concurrent processing was started . Anyway , I hope that fact that the Labour processing was almost standstill at that point works to our advantage.
 
To Rfellow :
My point is "How can you know the Receipt date of a application based on a EAC number ? " Since the program that creates this spreadsheet data, runs on BCIS online status page, you really can not determine a person's Receipt date because it is not available on website. The program can only find the EAC number and it's current status. Rest is all assumption. We all know very well that same EAC number can have people with different Receipt dates and different Notice dates.
 
Dsatish,

Please, try to run the i485 scan yourself. You will see it is accurate. Based on THOSE scans sbctsublc is compiling the info. The only inaccuracy would be that BCIS is not updating the website database regularly, which results in even greater number of approvals and transfers.
 
Sorry, missed your previous post :) :)

Also, please visit BCIS website. You will see EAC "IS BASED" on Notice Date.
 
hi Rick,
But we are not talking about Notice dates here. When we say 10 Feb'02 cases are approved, we are talking about people with Receipt Date of Feb'02. There is nothing wrong with the scan program. It only gives the status by EAC numbers. The problem lies in people interpreting the results.
 
dsatish,
EAC numbers are based on ND. In contrast to your other post, all NDs will have same sequence but for the last 5 digits. Scan stats, from online, are based on ND and they are accurate by ND. Nevertheless, people from different RD could get same ND - depending on when the data entry is taken place.

Anyway, I have seen a posting on approval of Feb 6th RD.


Originally posted by dsatish
hi Rick,
But we are not talking about Notice dates here. When we say 10 Feb'02 cases are approved, we are talking about people with Receipt Date of Feb'02. There is nothing wrong with the scan program. It only gives the status by EAC numbers. The problem lies in people interpreting the results.
Click to expand...
 
Hi Sanga,
I know that EAC numbers depend on ND but here the argument is about RD, not ND. Secondly it is not correct that people with same ND will have same 3 digit number in their EAC. This is only true for majority of cases, not all the cases. I have seen several cases where people with same ND have different 3 digit parts in ther EAC number.
 
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