Forward movement

[saras76]

Here is an update from the immigration-law.com. It pretty much highlights the information that has been shared in the March bulletin. There is no doubting this information because it is in writing and is coming straight from the offical source.

This should dispel any doubts that the situation will get WORSE before it gets any better. In the absence of any immigration reform, FY'07 should written of. FY '08 may bring some relief to 2001 EB3s from India (BIG IF). Fiscal year '09 will most likely be the start of the recovery from retrogression (albeit very slowly).

--- Visa numbers for March 2007 are disastrous.

--- EB cases: For all categories and all countries, not a single day has changed from February bulltin. It predicts that little, if any, forward movement in the

--- EB-3 is expected in the near future. It also predicts that according to their recent discussions with both USCIS and DOL, the demand for numbers with pre-August 2002 priority dates is likely to be extremely high in the coming months as both agencies continue to work on their backlogs. This could easily cause a retrogression of the current EB-3 cut-off dates, should that demand begin to materialize at USCIS duringthe spring and summer months. Alas!

--- For family cases, Mexico FB-3 retrogressed from 01/01/95 to 08/01/1994, and Philippines FB-3 retrogressed from 02/08/1991 to 09/01/1990. It predicts that further retrogression or unavailability in future months cannot be ruled out.

 

[JMJ]

However the bulletin did not say anything about EB2 categories at all(especially India / China)!!

 

[puerthoughts]

I think there are two ways we can take this bulletin.

1. The 8 May 01 date is sticking to its gun. This may say that all the visa numbers that were allocated to the first half of the fiscal year are still being used mostly by the cases before APR 30, 2001. That means there are many cases with the 245(i) still in the system.

2. Since the 8 May 01 is not moving backwards, it may suggest that there are enough numbers out there to cover the 245(i) cases. This means that it is improving chances to slow the effects of the retrogression, albeit very very slowly.

Are there any other ways we can take this bulletin ?

 

[saras76]

No matter how we look at it ..

I think there are two ways we can take this bulletin.

1. The 8 May 01 date is sticking to its gun. This may say that all the visa numbers that were allocated to the first half of the fiscal year are still being used mostly by the cases before APR 30, 2001. That means there are many cases with the 245(i) still in the system.

2. Since the 8 May 01 is not moving backwards, it may suggest that there are enough numbers out there to cover the 245(i) cases. This means that it is improving chances to slow the effects of the retrogression, albeit very very slowly.

Are there any other ways we can take this bulletin ?

puerthoughts,

Your reasoning has merit but the bulletin clearly states that they forsee a huge demand for EB3s in the coming months. They also state that most of the demand is prior to August 2002. This indicates that they are not talking about 245i's but are seeing and also anticipating thousands of cases from the BECs. Exactly how this will all play out is anyones guess. If you are India EB3 then there are the three situations/scenarios

India EB3s with PDs in 2001 - This group may see some relief in about 2 years (end of FY'08 and beginning of FY'09)

India EB3 prior to Aug 2002 - This group can only realisitcally hope for an approval once the first group of 2001 filers start becoming current. We are probably looking at about three years from now.

India EB3 2003 and beyond - There is a minimum wait of atleast 4 years for '03. The people beyond '03 should hope for immigration reform otherwise we are looking at unthinkable delays.

All of the above is based on the assumption that the visa bulletins will progress the way that they have over the past year. The backlog completin by the BECs will make things clearer for USCIS and DHS to set dates.

Finally, immigration reform can intervene and save us but its not an important issue in todays political arena.

cheers,

saras

 

[sfmars]

They do not expect huge demand of EB visas, they simply do not understand and do not know anything.

All the time they have excuses of expecting for something. I think when BECs clear all cases they will have excuse that they are expecting huge volume of LC substituted cases with PD < 2001. When substitution is cancelled they can say that they are expecting huge volume of Schedule A cases (because of possible relief for them) and etc...

It is very easy to keep unused visas and even not show the statistic.

In the middle of August 2007 they release September 2007 bullitin and move EB3 ROW/China/Plippines 5-6 months forward with warning to expect further backward movement for them.

I bet they have huge number of unused EB visas from FY 2006.

 

[CoolTiger]

puerthoughts,

Your reasoning has merit but the bulletin clearly states that they forsee a huge demand for EB3s in the coming months. They also state that most of the demand is prior to August 2002. This indicates that they are not talking about 245i's but are seeing and also anticipating thousands of cases from the BECs. Exactly how this will all play out is anyones guess. If you are India EB3 then there are the three situations/scenarios

India EB3s with PDs in 2001 - This group may see some relief in about 2 years (end of FY'08 and beginning of FY'09)

India EB3 prior to Aug 2002 - This group can only realisitcally hope for an approval once the first group of 2001 filers start becoming current. We are probably looking at about three years from now.

India EB3 2003 and beyond - There is a minimum wait of atleast 4 years for '03. The people beyond '03 should hope for immigration reform otherwise we are looking at unthinkable delays.

All of the above is based on the assumption that the visa bulletins will progress the way that they have over the past year. The backlog completin by the BECs will make things clearer for USCIS and DHS to set dates.

Finally, immigration reform can intervene and save us but its not an important issue in todays political arena.

cheers,

saras

Saras my friend
I don't agree with you that India EB3 will see any relief in the absence of law changes! It has been proven beyond doubt that there are plenty of 245i India filers in the system. Here is a very conservative analysis I did a few months back-

DOL Backlog - 362,000
Conservative Estimate for getting past the 140 - 160,000
India share(based on 40% H1 consumption) - 64,000
EB3 share (conservative) - 40,000
Pre Apr,01(245i and regular) conervative share - 14,000

With EB3 ROW retrogessed and India EB3 stuck at 2800(1400 primary), it will take atleast 14000/1400 = 10 years for Apr,01 hurdle to clear even by very conservative estimates.

And I wouldn't count on a spillover from EB3ROW bcoz that can only happen when EB3ROW is current! And already the new PERM approvals are lining up in the queue to explode on the scene!

Onless something changes, if you are India EB3 with a PD after April,01 forget about your GC. The writings on the wall are more than clear! Unfortunately!

 

[cool_desi_gc]

Aug 02 for EB3

Folks,

What is the significance of Aug 02 for the cutoff for EB3 India.Why are they talking about this specific month.

My PD is Dec 2002 EB3 India

 

[dmbronner]

I Agree 100% with you, they always have an excuse.

Why a person who is in USA with Approved labor and I-140 approved cannot apply for GC? The quota system should apply only for the people OUTSIDE the country, but we are INSIDE the country and we fill the same space, use the same highways, buy the same houses like a citizen or Permanent Resident but due to these STUPID Laws we have to wait years!! WORSE, an EB3 ROW or India or wathever with Bachelor Degree shares the same category with a Carpenter or Cooker with 2 years of experience!!

I have sent e-mail to Senator Martinez and Rep. Ros-Lethinen (Florida) about a Reform, the Senate and the Representaives need to expand the EB visa numbers but separetely from the Illegal Amnesty (I don't think there will be any amnesty).

They do not expect huge demand of EB visas, they simply do not understand and do not know anything.

All the time they have excuses of expecting for something. I think when BECs clear all cases they will have excuse that they are expecting huge volume of LC substituted cases with PD < 2001. When substitution is cancelled they can say that they are expecting huge volume of Schedule A cases (because of possible relief for them) and etc...

It is very easy to keep unused visas and even not show the statistic.

In the middle of August 2007 they release September 2007 bullitin and move EB3 ROW/China/Plippines 5-6 months forward with warning to expect further backward movement for them.

I bet they have huge number of unused EB visas from FY 2006.

 

[desi3933]

They do not expect huge demand of EB visas, they simply do not understand and do not know anything.

All the time they have excuses of expecting for something. I think when BECs clear all cases they will have excuse that they are expecting huge volume of LC substituted cases with PD < 2001. When substitution is cancelled they can say that they are expecting huge volume of Schedule A cases (because of possible relief for them) and etc...

It is very easy to keep unused visas and even not show the statistic.

In the middle of August 2007 they release September 2007 bullitin and move EB3 ROW/China/Plippines 5-6 months forward with warning to expect further backward movement for them.

August 2007!!!
When are you filing for I-485 based on "your understanding"? As you think that PD need not be current to file I-485.

I bet they have huge number of unused EB visas from FY 2006.

 

[saras76]

Okay ..

Saras my friend
I don't agree with you that India EB3 will see any relief in the absence of law changes! It has been proven beyond doubt that there are plenty of 245i India filers in the system. Here is a very conservative analysis I did a few months back-

DOL Backlog - 362,000
Conservative Estimate for getting past the 140 - 160,000
India share(based on 40% H1 consumption) - 64,000
EB3 share (conservative) - 40,000
Pre Apr,01(245i and regular) conervative share - 14,000

With EB3 ROW retrogessed and India EB3 stuck at 2800(1400 primary), it will take atleast 14000/1400 = 10 years for Apr,01 hurdle to clear even by very conservative estimates.

And I wouldn't count on a spillover from EB3ROW bcoz that can only happen when EB3ROW is current! And already the new PERM approvals are lining up in the queue to explode on the scene!

Onless something changes, if you are India EB3 with a PD after April,01 forget about your GC. The writings on the wall are more than clear! Unfortunately!

CoolTiger,

Yes, your analysis paints the absolute worst case scenario and it is possible. At this point if it pleases people to be foolishly optimistic so be it. If it pleases people to be utterly pessimistic then so be it. Most of our fates are already sealed, whats the point of debating and analyzing. It really changes nothing

Somehow I don't buy that you are convinced that none of us will get our GCs. You would not waste your time on this forum and would pursue something else. My point is that as bad as things are, we are always looking for some rays of hope. Unexpected things (good and bad) can always happen.

regards,

saras