• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

Family members part of 50,000 issued DVs?

D

Dracenstein

Registered Users (C)
I read on another thread that a DV selectee's family (spouse/children) that he/she has entered when initially applying make up part of the 50,000 available DVs. Is this correct?

In which case when the stats reveal that there were 5 million - 10 million entrants in one particular year are these figures taking into account DV entrants and their family members as individual entrants? If so than the odds of being one of the 100,000 or more selectees suddenly impoves by at last 200%. Assuming there were 5 million entrants this year (taking into account family members as individual entrants), than you are now playing with odds of 100,000 out of 2.5 million (4% chance of being selected).
 
Also, does the winning number of country included all family members? For example, one of the 3 members family win the DV and the country winning number is 100. Does the winning number included the whole family member or just one?
 
To know the exact odds, here how you should look at the infos:

direct entrants are applicants, family members are counted as derivatives so you should look at only the entry without the derivatives. For Angola for instance. last edition (2013) there were 1,543 direct entries and 2,035 derivatives for a total of 3,578 entries... But the derivatives are not counted among the 100 000 selectees so at the end the important number is 1,543.

The chances of winning according to Wikipedia :
Africa : 1.69%
Europe : 1.63%
Asia: 0.84%
south America: 1.08%
Oceania: 5.28%

now the chances of getting a visa after being selected (This will be a great relief from high CN number holder)
Africa : 46.12%
Europe : 50.83%
Asia: 55.37%
south America: 41.14%
Oceania: 35.59%

As you can see, if we compile those stats, not all of the 50 000 visas are issued per year.
but actually, chances do varies from countries to countries even within the same region... the best example was Bangladesh... They use to have approx 50% of all the entries (about 7 millions the last time) for only 3 to 6000 selectees... This can be explained in many ways...

-maybe they are limiting the number of winner in some countries (Because if all the countries within a region had equal chance, then Bangladesh should have almost 20 000 winners... (This is what i do believe)

-Maybe too many duplicate entries... (But the cheaters in that cases are too many so i doubt it).
 
Dracenstein said:
I read on another thread that a DV selectee's family (spouse/children) that he/she has entered when initially applying make up part of the 50,000 available DVs. Is this correct?

In which case when the stats reveal that there were 5 million - 10 million entrants in one particular year are these figures taking into account DV entrants and their family members as individual entrants? If so than the odds of being one of the 100,000 or more selectees suddenly impoves by at last 200%. Assuming there were 5 million entrants this year (taking into account family members as individual entrants), than you are now playing with odds of 100,000 out of 2.5 million (4% chance of being selected).
Click to expand...

I found this summary of DV2013, it explains how many principal applicants and derivatives applied. I suppose we wont know the full statistics of exactly how many visa were actually given out until after 30th Sept 2013.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5715.html
 
DVDreams said:
I found this summary of DV2013, it explains how many principal applicants and derivatives applied. I suppose we wont know the full statistics of exactly how many visa were actually given out until after 30th Sept 2013.
http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/types/types_5715.html
Click to expand...

the visa issuance are very small... for Angola for instance, it averages about 40 to 50 winner per years (3% chance of being selected...) But the visa issuance are around 5-7... once it reached 14 but was the only time it topped 10
 
Every year this Q comes up and ppl get confused, some asserting that ~105k WINNERS do not include family (derivatives) which is WRONG! 'cos official stats (see later) suggest otherwise.

Initial ~105k 'winners' basically come from 4 types of principal winners; (1)Single (2)Single w/kids (3)Married couples no kids (4) Married couples w/kids. Any given year the principal winners in the ~105k TOTAL crowd CAN NOT be anything more than 40-45k, and of them only about 20-25k are successful in taking a shot at fulfilling the max 55k TOTAL DVs together with their derivatives.

This 40-45k number is 'assumed' and I am yet to find a place where that number is given conclusively, pl correct me if I am wrong.

What helps in making the said assumption though are the DETAILED stats published yearly of the immigrants that 'came' to US.
Now, in these stats there are 2 categories; AoS and 'New Arrivals', and as far as DVs are concerned my assumption is that new arrivals means only those CPs who came and activated DVs. I think there is a category missing here of those who are issued DVs but who wasted it by not activating within the max 6 mos period allowed. I have not found anywhere a conclusive number where the TOTAL ISSUED DVs are discussed to see whether there is a difference.(correct me if I m wrong, see below PS too)

The 2012 Stats are here http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics-2012-legal-permanent-residents (Chk Table 7, lines 200-206)
You will find in there that the TOTAL successful DVs of 40.3k belongs to only about 21.3k PRINCIPALS! (and only 9.1k of them belongs to 'married with accompanying spouse' category), i.e majority of winners seems single!

For prior Yrs stats chk http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics

Hope this helps.

Best!

PS: The difference between TOTAL # of DVs ISSUED and # ACTIVATED (as in above handbooks' Table 7s) can be (I think) reconciled using the data here for past yrs. http://www.travel.state.gov/pdf/FY12AnnualReport-TableVII.pdf (note that there they say FY 2012 data are preliminary)
Seems a sizable number has not come to US in time to activate each yr! (AoS are activated by default as and when issued unlike CPs)
 
Last edited by a moderator:
NuvF said:
Every year this Q comes up and ppl get confused, some asserting that ~105k WINNERS do not include family (derivatives) which is WRONG! 'cos official stats (see later) suggest otherwise.

Initial 105k 'winners' basically come from 4 types of principal winners; (1)Single (2)Single w/kids (3)Married couples no kids (4) Married couples w/kids. Any year the principal winners in the ~105k TOTAL crowd CAN NOT be any more that 40-45k, and of them only about 20-25k are successful in taking a shot at fulfilling the max 55k TOTAL DVs together with their derivatives.

This 40-45k number is 'assumed' and I am yet to find a place where that number is given conclusively, pl correct me if I am wrong.

What helps in making the said assumption though are the DETAILED stats published yearly of the immigrants that 'came' to US.
Now, in these stats there are 2 categories; AoS and 'New Arrivals', and as far as DVs are concerned my assumption is that new arrivals means only those CPs who came and activated DVs. I think there is a category missing here of those who are issued DVs but who wasted it by not activating withing the max 6 mos period allowed. I have not found anywhere a conclusive number where the TOTAL ISSUED DVs are discussed to see whether there is a difference.(correct me if I m wrong)

The 2012 Stats are here http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics-2012-legal-permanent-residents (Chk Table 7, lines 200-206)
You will find there that the TOTAL successful DVs of 40.3k belongs to only about 21.3k PRINCIPALS! (and only 9.1k of them belongs to married with spouses accompanying category), i.e majority of winners seems single!

For prior Yrs stats chk http://www.dhs.gov/yearbook-immigration-statistics

Hope this helps.

Best!
Click to expand...

Where in your link does it say anything about 100k selectees in the DV?
 
jayo2k said:
Where in your link does it say anything about 100k selectees in the DV?
Click to expand...

It does not nor I claimed it does!

The ~105k # is from the 'official version' that ~2x more WINNERS (than # available) are selected for any given DV yr. (forecasting a max 50% 'success' rate)
40-45k number is a LOGICAL ASSUMPTION 'derived' from the final official stats released.

Got it?

Best!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top