Exercise in trying to derive the new cut off date

L

lee_haircut5

Registered Users (C)
All,
October 01 is approaching. Typically the USCIS will publish the new cut off date for asylee adjustment to fill the new 10,000 quota.

Using Excel primarily and by looking at the Statistic of Asylee from USCIS website, I spent a few minutes trying an exercise to figure the new cut off date. I will outline my approach below.

QUESTION:
What is the new cut off date (last one is Nov 16, 1999)?

APPROACH:
Find # of people who adjusted to LPR from Nov 16, 1999 onward. The best estimate (not proven but best assumption) is to find people who were granted asylum Nov 16, 1998 onward (b/c these are the people who qualify to adjust). Granted, there were people who did not adjust immediately, but this should even out b/c there may be people who qualified since the prior FY but only applied in this particular FY.

DATA SOURCE:
Asylum Statistic from USCIS website. (a little tricky since they publish based on FY, not actual Calendar Year).

TOOL:
MS Excel

ASSUMPTION:
USCIS granted asylum linearly throughout the year (if not then the mathematical approach used will be moot). For example, if USCIS approves 365 asylum in 1998, we assume that USCIS grants 1 asylum per day for the year 1998.

RESULT:
So, using Excel and the data source - I conclude that approximately 10,033 people were granted asylum between NOV 17, 1998 AND AUG 15, 1999.

So the assumption is that approximately 10,033 people adjusted to LPR between Nov 17, 1999 and Aug 15, 2000.

With this logic (and all the assumptions built in), the new cut off date should be around Aug 2000.

Thoughts? Please comment or shoot holes (i am sure there are plenty).

Thanks,
Lee_Haircut5
 
It appears that you did not include asylum grants made by the Executive Office for Immigration Review (the Immigration Courts and the Board of Immigration Appeals). The CIS and the EOIR publishes its own data.


lee_haircut5 said:
All,
October 01 is approaching. Typically the USCIS will publish the new cut off date for asylee adjustment to fill the new 10,000 quota.

Using Excel primarily and by looking at the Statistic of Asylee from USCIS website, I spent a few minutes trying an exercise to figure the new cut off date. I will outline my approach below.

QUESTION:
What is the new cut off date (last one is Nov 16, 1999)?

APPROACH:
Find # of people who adjusted to LPR from Nov 16, 1999 onward. The best estimate (not proven but best assumption) is to find people who were granted asylum Nov 16, 1998 onward (b/c these are the people who qualify to adjust). Granted, there were people who did not adjust immediately, but this should even out b/c there may be people who qualified since the prior FY but only applied in this particular FY.

DATA SOURCE:
Asylum Statistic from USCIS website. (a little tricky since they publish based on FY, not actual Calendar Year).

TOOL:
MS Excel

ASSUMPTION:
USCIS granted asylum linearly throughout the year (if not then the mathematical approach used will be moot). For example, if USCIS approves 365 asylum in 1998, we assume that USCIS grants 1 asylum per day for the year 1998.

RESULT:
So, using Excel and the data source - I conclude that approximately 10,033 people were granted asylum between NOV 17, 1998 AND AUG 15, 1999.

So the assumption is that approximately 10,033 people adjusted to LPR between Nov 17, 1999 and Aug 15, 2000.

With this logic (and all the assumptions built in), the new cut off date should be around Aug 2000.

Thoughts? Please comment or shoot holes (i am sure there are plenty).

Thanks,
Lee_Haircut5
Click to expand...
 
Since the mid-1990s, more than 20,000 persons were granted asylum each year. The high point was in 2001 when at least 28,000 people were approved.
 
Gilbert:

It is interesting you brought up that point. Are you saying that INS' statistical report is partial and deosn't account for the total number of asylees (granted asylum in US by immig officer, immig judge, etc) in a given period of time. Which agency would have a centeralized stat info if INS hasn't. :confused:
 
go2bk said:
Gilbert:

It is interesting you brought up that point. Are you saying that INS' statistical report is partial and deosn't account for the total number of asylees (granted asylum in US by immig officer, immig judge, etc) in a given period of time. Which agency would have a centeralized stat info if INS hasn't. :confused:
Click to expand...

Yes, it is correct that the INS/CIS and the EOIR each compiles its own data. The Government does not formally combine the data. A number of outside organizations do. They are the source for my information concerning more than 20000 grants per year. Think about it another way, only such a consistently high number would lead to the current huge adjustment backlog.
 
Gilbert,
So where can one find out such true combined statistics?
If one wants to derive how many people were granted asylum in FY 1998, 1999, or 2000 - where can one go? Is it on the Net?

Thanks!
Lee_haircut5
 
This from BCIS's website..which means the cutoff date will be may 12, 2000. IF the 25000 lawsuit is implemented. The cutoff date should be on or about July 2001.

Date Received (Mail Date) Timeframe to be Processed
Jan. 28, 1993-Nov. 16, 1999 Oct. 1, 2003-Sept. 30, 2004
Nov. 17, 1999-May 12, 2000 Oct. 1, 2004-Sept. 30, 2005
May 13, 2000-Nov. 6, 2000 Oct. 1, 2005-Sept. 30, 2006
Nov. 7, 2000-April 23, 2001 Oct. 1, 2006-Sept. 30, 2007
April 24, 2001-Aug. 31, 2001 Oct. 1, 2007-Sept. 30, 2008
Sep. 1, 2001-Jan. 17, 2002 Oct. 1, 2008-Sept. 30, 2009
Jan. 18, 2002-May 9, 2002 Oct. 1, 2009-Sept. 30, 2010
May 10, 2002-Aug. 19, 2002 Oct. 1, 2010-Sept. 30, 2011
Aug. 20, 2002-Dec. 12, 2002 Oct. 1, 2011-Sept. 30, 2012
Dec. 13, 2002-April 14, 2003 Oct. 1, 2012-Sept. 30, 2013
April 15, 2003-Aug. 4, 2003 Oct. 1, 2013-Sept. 30, 2014
Aug. 5, 2003-Dec. 8, 2003 Oct. 1, 2014-Sept. 30, 2015
 
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