Eb2 Outlook -2004 to Current??

[aditya_1981k]

Guys I know its a tough one to guess but

any idea what could be
Most Optimistic Outlook for Eb2
Most pestimestic Outlook for Eb2
Median Outlook for Eb2?
thanks

 

[saras76]

What I think ..

aditya_1981k,

I am not EB2 but from all I have read EB2 for India and China will probably move much more slowly through 2003 and beyond. From 2003 and beyond most people started opting for EB2 instead of EB3 and the same problems that are plaguing EB3s right now may plague EB2 in the future. This is based purely on what I have read in some forum discussions and some immigration websites. I am not entirely sure if this will happen.

regards,

saras76

 

[posmd]

I doubt this

I think the date movements will definitely slow down, it follows to reason that there are more petitions pending closer to a current priority date.
The truth is that priority date was not even a consideration for many years after AC21 was signed into law. So much so that even some lawyers "forgot" about this issue and gave BS advise telling people things like EB2 vs EB3 does nto matter, and advising in other ways that did not take into account that PDs were an issue that can come about in the future.
Hence, I think that the crowd of EB2 petitions is perhaps 2005 and beyond but not before that. Hence I predict reasonable movement until the date reaches middle to end of 2003 then starting late 2003 and early 2004 it might go to month for month movement, so might take 1 yr to get to mid 2004. Of course if some legislation passed to solve all this, then that could change everything.

 

[can_card]

In my view and analysis, there is no demand in EB2 as everyone is talking. DOS is arbitarly moving the dates. They told EB2-world wide also retrogress in future. But it did not happened. Instead, they moved the china by one year. Last month they moved just six months only. For, India, they are moving by 6 months. There is no calculation in DOS, just they are playing safe, to reach 40,000 in Sep 2006.


The movement won't slow down, unless they change the procedure in visa allocation. DOS count numbers (visa allocation)only when USCIS approve 485. Therefore, if any one files 485 after april 2006 (even if they have PD 1999) DOS cannot approve their 485 before sep 2006, and thereby DOS cannot determine the demand. They have to approve the 485s pending for long time rather than new 485s filed after april 2006, even it carries vely old PD. They have to do this to issue all 40,000 EB2 visas before sep 2006.

 

[asiandude]

EB2 was current until 1st oct 2005. Hence only those people who received thair labor approval (through PERM or non PERM) after 1st Oct 2005 will be waiting to apply for I485.

Accoring to www.immigration-law.com

04/06/2006: DOL Report of Status of PERM and Backlog Applications Processing as of 03/17/2006

DOL has reported the following statistics to the AILA:

PERM:
Certified: 36,587

Backlog Cases:
Total Certified: 50,000

So based on these statistics from 86587 labor approved a lot of them must have applied for I 485 before 1st Oct 2005. So any guesses on how many of these 86587 are EB2 cases still waiting to apply for I 485 under EB2 category for India.

 

[stucklabor]

Can_card,

Why can't USCIS approve someone's April 2006 I485 before Sep 2006?

BTW, I agree with you that movement is likely to be rapid in EB2 for India and China. Last year even with AC21 recaptures, only 43K EB2s were handed out, as opposed to 65K EB1s and 100K EB3s. So the demand for EB3 is about on pace with the quota.

Asiandude,

PERM was only in operation for a couple months before USCIS announced retrogression. So only a proportion of those PERM approvals are actually fighting for those EB2 numbers.

 

[can_card]

Can_card,

Why can't USCIS approve someone's April 2006 I485 before Sep 2006?

BTW, I agree with you that movement is likely to be rapid in EB2 for India and China. Last year even with AC21 recaptures, only 43K EB2s were handed out, as opposed to 65K EB1s and 100K EB3s. So the demand for EB3 is about on pace with the quota.

Asiandude,

PERM was only in operation for a couple months before USCIS announced retrogression. So only a proportion of those PERM approvals are actually fighting for those EB2 numbers.

UCSIS needs atleast 6 months (from filing date) to process 485 and request visa number from DOS at the time of approval. Therefore, if any one files new 485 with uscis (even with very old PD) after April 2006, USCIS may not approve it before the end of fiscal year 2006 (Sep 2006).