DV 2014 Europe - case number
- Thread starter alien1974
- Start date
Thank you britsimon! Hope is everything.
Could you please give some links where I can find information about the last numbers called to interview in the previous years? I found some official statistics, but only refers to the total number of visas issued by countries and regions 2003-2012, nothing specific on the case numbers called to interview.
Is there any change in the case numbers allocation procedure for Europe this year?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
The visa bulletin archive shows the VB since 2002. If you check the September bulletin for each year you will see the highest number called per region, with some country cutoffs.
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html
Regarding the number allocation procedure, none of us can be sure. We do know that there are an additional 20% selectees (125k vs 105k) this year. We are also seeing higher CNs this year (which makes sense with the additional 20%). There are some that believe there may be more gaps in the numbers this year. I don't think so because the difference in number fits the additional 20% (Europe would normally have a high number around 45k, this year it is 55k - almost exactly right for the 105k to 125k).
Your number is about 65% of the EU numbers - so if you applied that to the whole 125k, you would be in the first 81k. Considering the 105k normally isn't quite enough, I think your number is pretty safe - but that is just my logic, my guesswork. There was a guy on here (Raevsky) who rubbed people up the wrong way, but he seemed to know a lot about the process. He stated the cutoff this year would be between 30 and 37 for Europe. I think those numbers are on the low side - hence my guess that numbers in the early 40's will be happy. There are also some who think everyone will get an interview, but there seems to be no logic backing up those assertions, just emotion and hope.
Fingers crossed for you. I believe you will get an interview date. It might be late (Aug/September 2014) but I think you'll be ok. Good luck.
http://www.travel.state.gov/visa/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html
Regarding the number allocation procedure, none of us can be sure. We do know that there are an additional 20% selectees (125k vs 105k) this year. We are also seeing higher CNs this year (which makes sense with the additional 20%). There are some that believe there may be more gaps in the numbers this year. I don't think so because the difference in number fits the additional 20% (Europe would normally have a high number around 45k, this year it is 55k - almost exactly right for the 105k to 125k).
Your number is about 65% of the EU numbers - so if you applied that to the whole 125k, you would be in the first 81k. Considering the 105k normally isn't quite enough, I think your number is pretty safe - but that is just my logic, my guesswork. There was a guy on here (Raevsky) who rubbed people up the wrong way, but he seemed to know a lot about the process. He stated the cutoff this year would be between 30 and 37 for Europe. I think those numbers are on the low side - hence my guess that numbers in the early 40's will be happy. There are also some who think everyone will get an interview, but there seems to be no logic backing up those assertions, just emotion and hope.
Fingers crossed for you. I believe you will get an interview date. It might be late (Aug/September 2014) but I think you'll be ok. Good luck.
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
"highest EU numbers around 55k" ?
Hi Britsimon, may I ask where exactly you found the info on highest EU rank numbers for DV2014 being around 55k? In terms of the Visa bulletin infos, I think the highest cut offs I've noticed for EU was around 40k ever...
Hi Britsimon, may I ask where exactly you found the info on highest EU rank numbers for DV2014 being around 55k? In terms of the Visa bulletin infos, I think the highest cut offs I've noticed for EU was around 40k ever...
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
DV2014EU35xxx
My wife and I actually delayed checking our results until a week ago!...for fear of being instantly confronted with life decisions that would follow in case of a "Not selected this time" message!
But ... one of us DID get selected for further processing!! Wow...Oh, ... the joy!
Already visualizing our life in the US! It would come at a perfect time...
We then put all our energy and focus into preparing the paperwork for the following 3 days non-stop ... and submitted it to KCC on 5/23/2013, thinking it would help to be as early as possible (as they all say).
However, once the pressure has eased, I spent more time on figuring out what would follow next and when...etc.
Our 'rank number' is 2014EU00035xxx ... and while it's great to "be in" (the pool of selectees), it kind of sucks that it will probably take ages to get to interview stage ...
My wife and I actually delayed checking our results until a week ago!...for fear of being instantly confronted with life decisions that would follow in case of a "Not selected this time" message!
But ... one of us DID get selected for further processing!! Wow...Oh, ... the joy!
Already visualizing our life in the US! It would come at a perfect time...
We then put all our energy and focus into preparing the paperwork for the following 3 days non-stop ... and submitted it to KCC on 5/23/2013, thinking it would help to be as early as possible (as they all say).
However, once the pressure has eased, I spent more time on figuring out what would follow next and when...etc.
Our 'rank number' is 2014EU00035xxx ... and while it's great to "be in" (the pool of selectees), it kind of sucks that it will probably take ages to get to interview stage ...
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
People have reported those numbers in this forum and others. In previous years EU has seen numbers around 45k and there is a 20% increase in the selectee pool this year - so the 55k number makes sense too.
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
Cheers, Simon. That someone reported their case number being in the 55k region for EU, it makes sense then... btw, I like your little 'formula' ... in my case then:
35000/55000=64%
64% of 125,000= 80,000
So according to your play with numbers in the other post, we are in the 'top 80k' out of 125,000 ... hooray!
But what seems pretty certain now at least is, that with a number for EU in the low to high 30k range, it will take at least until April if not May of next year for an interview to happen, i.e. ONE YEAR from now. That is a long wait.
35000/55000=64%
64% of 125,000= 80,000
So according to your play with numbers in the other post, we are in the 'top 80k' out of 125,000 ... hooray!
But what seems pretty certain now at least is, that with a number for EU in the low to high 30k range, it will take at least until April if not May of next year for an interview to happen, i.e. ONE YEAR from now. That is a long wait.
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
I'm in love with your optimism but I agree, we will both come through fine eventually
...
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I can't tell you that is safe, no (actually nobody knows - these are all guesses). Based on my VERY simplistic math calculation you are probably in the "top" 91000. Based on previous years where 105k winners didn't produce enough a big enough pool (a second batch of winners were notified), my gut feeling is that an EU40XXX number should be good enough to get an interview. As I have said before, Raevsky thought the cutoff (for EU) would be between 31 and 37. Love him or hate him, he knew his stuff so I am probably being wreckless in extending his range, but I personally think he was being too pessimistic.
Fingers crossed for you.
Hi there - Raevsky's theory was that in the past years not all 100k selectees were notified, and KCC was keeping high CN numbers hidden, just in case they need them for a second 'draw'. That would mean the cutoff is usually much lower than the 100k. Does anyone knows where he could get that information from? Are there any data that could support this theory?
Thanks. Your theory make me feel better. That kind of makes sense to us.
Hello, every body! My case number is EU 00047XXX. what do you think about?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Hello, every body! My case number is EU 00047XXX. what do you think about?
That is a high number Kate. IN my honest opinion, I think it is too high, but I would suggest watching the visa bulletins carefully and I hope you get a chance.
OnTheGo
Registered Users (C)
My best guess would be April (March at the earliest, of) 2014, as I don't expect that we will get to interview stage before Jun 2014 ourselves with a CN of 35XXX. 50-55k for EU compared to 40-45k in earlier years just means they have a much higher likelihood of exhausting the pool of visas available, but it is no indicator for the speed at which they work the cases! In fact, I guess chances for those on higher CN's is even lower than before as while selectee numbers have increased, it is still the same pool of visas they issue globally!
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Just o short note to thank you again Britsimon
I got my visa in July 15. Even if I did not write here, I confess I'vv read your posts. Thats helped alot. You man do a great job helping others with infos or just encouragement.
Take care and good luck!
God bless you.