• Hello Members, This forums is for DV lottery visas only. For other immigration related questions, please go to our forums home page, find the related forum and post it there.

disappointed

SusieQQQ said:
What is missing from that link to put it in context though would be the number of winners drawn every year...
Click to expand...

Another very crucial piece of information is the regional quotas. I'm guessing there must have been some change in the regional quotas as well.
 
luck_boy said:
http://www.dv-info.site40.net/ I think this will show some clear picture SusieQQQ
Click to expand...

Thanks for the link.

Did a little Excel thingy and realized that the Dec-13 progression for Asia (150) was the smallest since DV-2006 (Feb-07 had no progression).

It was the fourth smallest progression since DV-2002. (it once retrogressed in Nov-05, 100 in Jan-06, and 0 in Feb-07)

At a loss of words.
 
britsimon said:
OK, a longer more detailed answer.

In several recent years, there were around 100 - 105,000 selectees each year and the number of drop outs would mean there were enough visas for all - so the assumption was that all people got an interview. People became used to seeing the numbers going current in the last month or two months of processing. Generally the region going current was accepted to mean that USCIS believed there were enough remaining visas and processing capacity to process all the remaining numbers, so no longer needed to impose a cutoff limit to control the order of processing. Post year numbers showed that the visas were not exhausted each year - they were slightly underfilling the target meaning some visas were being wasted.

However, this year is different. In our selectee letters we were told that 125,000 selectees had been notified and then in the September visa bulletin we learned that there were just over 140,000 selectees this year. The VB also stated that the larger number
selectees was to ensure that the visa quota would be filled this year. I guess there had been some criticism of the wasted visas. How do you ensure you will use them up ? You select MORE than you know you will need.

So - some selectees will be disappointed - that is certain - what we don't know is where the axe will fall (the global 50k limit) and how the region to region quotas will be spread out. When you have an underfilling situation, the regional quota is not what determines the spread of visas - it is based on "chance" within the selectees. So, when they were only selecting 105k they were not able to pick and choose the regional spread. Since unused visas from one region could be used by another region, chances are that we were not seeing the quotas implemented with their full effect. At 140K they will be able to determine the regional spread and the regional quota could mean that a region hits a limit and never goes current whilst another region continues to be expanded until it too is filled or the global limit is met. That is a possibility. I suspect that is what will happen for EU and OC this year. I think they will accelerate the processing in those regions relative to other regions so that regional quota are met in those regions. I don't know what that will mean in terms of numbers but I would not be surprised to see EU get around 20k visas this year...

It is all speculation at this point but I do believe this year will be different than previous years...
Click to expand...

There is a rule that stated the DOS cannot allocate more than 10% of max visa every month. Means, it will not allocate more than 5,000 visa each month for DV category. So, we can conclude that when the axe really fall (50k global quota), it will be either Aug and Sept 2014. I don't think regional quota will change much and we can roughly calculate the quota by looking at the number of selectees by region because the selection also based on regional quota. I believe the regional quota will only change when some region has interviewed all the regional selectees and still have excess in visa. But what will be interesting is the AP case since AP don't withhold the visa allocated. I also believe some AP cases wait until the last month for embassies to decide whether to issue the visa and this has shown in DV13 (on the last day of fiscal year 2013, 30 more times visa issued compare to any other days).

Anyway, this year will be a rough ride.
 
kayend said:
There is a rule that stated the DOS cannot allocate more than 10% of max visa every month. Means, it will not allocate more than 5,000 visa each month for DV category. So, we can conclude that when the axe really fall (50k global quota), it will be either Aug and Sept 2014. I don't think regional quota will change much and we can roughly calculate the quota by looking at the number of selectees by region because the selection also based on regional quota. I believe the regional quota will only change when some region has interviewed all the regional selectees and still have excess in visa. But what will be interesting is the AP case since AP don't withhold the visa allocated. I also believe some AP cases wait until the last month for embassies to decide whether to issue the visa and this has shown in DV13 (on the last day of fiscal year 2013, 30 more times visa issued compare to any other days).

Anyway, this year will be a rough ride.
Click to expand...

Interesting points.

That 10% rule has always troubled me. The first three months of VBs are made "blind" they have no idea how many are actually successful - and therefore probably under budget to make sure they don't break the rule. Later on, they have to play catchup - and wjile doing so must come close to the 10% rule, otherwise they cannot fill the quotas in time. Just makes me wonder what "flexibility" there is around the 10% rule.

I agree that the selection is based on the regional quota BUT the drop out/reject/AP/pass rates are different by region. So - don't you think it is possible that the original selection might not be an accurate assessment of what the final quota will be?

I agree that we are in for a rough ride.
 
britsimon said:
Interesting points.

That 10% rule has always troubled me. The first three months of VBs are made "blind" they have no idea how many are actually successful - and therefore probably under budget to make sure they don't break the rule. Later on, they have to play catchup - and wjile doing so must come close to the 10% rule, otherwise they cannot fill the quotas in time. Just makes me wonder what "flexibility" there is around the 10% rule.

I agree that the selection is based on the regional quota BUT the drop out/reject/AP/pass rates are different by region. So - don't you think it is possible that the original selection might not be an accurate assessment of what the final quota will be?

I agree that we are in for a rough ride.
Click to expand...

Yes, I think it will be adjustment along the way in term of regional quota.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top