Demand for visas and cut of dates - how does this really work?

[GCInThisLife]

We know from the first paragraph in any bulletin that every month BCIS receivs demand in the form of chronological order of PDs in every category for each country and PD of the first applicant who doesn't make it in a category/country becomes cut-off date. So my question what is source of this list of chronological PDs?

I am wondering wether they do it based on I140 filings or I140 approvals or pending I485 (in queue for visa numbers) or labor approvals or all of these? To me I140 approvals (including concurrent filings) make more sense. But one's logic may not always reflect what is actually happening.

 

[blondhenge]

We know from the first paragraph in any bulletin that every month BCIS receivs demand in the form of chronological order of PDs in every category for each country and PD of the first applicant who doesn't make it in a category/country becomes cut-off date. So my question what is source of this list of chronological PDs?

I am wondering wether they do it based on I140 filings or I140 approvals or pending I485 (in queue for visa numbers) or labor approvals or all of these? To me I140 approvals (including concurrent filings) make more sense. But one's logic may not always reflect what is actually happening.

It's DOS that makes the determination, not USCIS.

DOS has a list of people who do consular processing (around 10% of all immigrant visa), and these are the dates they are referring to in the bulletin. To that, they add the anticipated demand from the USCIS using I140 volumes and pending LC's at the backlog center.

They mix it all together, and come up with the priority dates. Sounds simple in theory, but I believe there is a lot more to it than any of us on this board realize.

 

[Gc_puli]

As per my knowledge, DOS has no scientific tools to predict the demand for next month. Their current practice is that based on number of approval of 485s till first week of that month. When USCIS or Consulates approves 485/ they take numbers from DOS database. DOS count that number, then they determine the demand for next month and moves the date accordingly, and release visa bullition in second week.

 

[GCInThisLife]

I think pending labors may not have affect on the cut off dates. DOS only makes some predictions due to volume of cases in BEC, but can't be sure until cases get approved and also not all off them may make to I140 (employee might have changed company) and though very rare, not all 140 approvals make it to 485 stage.

Since the bulletin clearly mentions that DOS get chronalogical list and cut of date is PD of first application who doesn't make the cut, it definitely gets the 'prepared' list of actual cut of dates and not just a prediction based on previous months. However, there may be instances where few of those PDs that made the cut doesn't consume visa numbers bc's of denials etc.

Does DOS takes spouses, children while establishing dates? Also, since visa number is actually consumed only upon 485 approval, even if a specific PD makes the cut, it may take > 6 months for it consume the number.

Since it is quite difficult to take all the factors into consideratin DOS might be following some strategy of their own, looks like, it is indeed a little more complicated and uncertain than I initially anticipated.