Dec Bulletin: Projected Interview Dates for each Region

[slackerdemigod]

Here are the projected interview dates based on the December bulletin just released. (Attached PDF file)

RED - Actual cut-offs from the DOS
ORANGE - Linear projection of interview dates (Estimated only. The actual cut-offs can and probably will be different.)

• Africa, Asia and Europe are processing at significantly faster rates than previous years
• Oceania and South America are processing significantly slower than in DV2008 and slightly slower than the average over the past 5 years.

 

[xPektator]

Here are the projected interview dates based on the December bulletin just released. (Attached PDF file)

RED - Actual cut-offs from the DOS
ORANGE - Linear projection of interview dates (Estimated only. The actual cut-offs can and probably will be different.)


What is the file all about? Its all your assumptions or you get the datas from some authentic division? Does ur file means that CN 24xxx of asia is not getting a chance for interview or something like that? This data is totally true or is just an probability?

 

[slackerdemigod]

The data is from the DOS bulletins, publically available here: http://travel.state.gov/visa/frvi/bulletin/bulletin_1770.html
The projections are linear projections from 4 months of available DV2009 bulletin data using the Excel "TREND" function.
Actual cut-offs might and probably will vary from the projections provided in the PDF. Errors towards the end of DV2009 (July, August September) are likely to be amplified.
The reality is no one knows what the cut-offs will be in the future. Perhaps even the DOS itself doesn't know at this moment.
You should not make any definite plans based on the likelyhood or unlikelyhood of being granted an interview or Diversity visa.

 

[slackerdemigod]

Does ur file means that CN 24xxx of asia is not getting a chance for interview or something like that?

On this issue. Asia usually goes current so I would think you have some chance of getting an interview. However it is impossible to know this early in the year.

My thinking on processing rate is like this for DV2009.

1. The US economy is in recession. The US currency has risen strongly against most other currencies with the exception of Japanese yen.
2. Therefore DV petitioners for DV2009 will have more difficulty getting enough US$ and satisfying interviewing officers they can get a job and support their family in a recession. Furthermore affidavits of support will be more difficult to get due to financial hardship by many americans.
3. Therefore more people are going to fail interviews in DV2009 compared to previous years.
4. Therefore more case numbers will get an interview in DV2009.

It's difficult for people in your situation - high case numbers. As you have no control over whether you get an interview my suggestions are:

• focus on the things you do have control over. Don't look at this forum every day. Check back once a month to save torturing yourself.
• In the meanwhile make sure you are 100% certain of passing the interview first attempt. If you get an interview it is likely to be in September. You might only get one chance. Remember that at least 1/2 the petitioners fail their interviews or otherwise do not meet the DV requirements. So don't let that happen to you. It looks very simple to meet the requirements for DV but actually it's not.

 

[wwwh355]

is it possible to plot the 2009 curve according to the average curve of the previous year? ( non linear prediction)

 

[slackerdemigod]

I will consider doing this for next month's release.

It will probably only help for Africa which looks very non-linear. For the other regions I doubt it would make much difference to the accuracy.
As you can see there are big variations in processing each year. There are limits to what can be predicted from publically available data.

 

[xPektator]

On this issue. Asia usually goes current so I would think you have some chance of getting an interview. However it is impossible to know this early in the year.

My thinking on processing rate is like this for DV2009.

1. The US economy is in recession. The US currency has risen strongly against most other currencies with the exception of Japanese yen.
2. Therefore DV petitioners for DV2009 will have more difficulty getting enough US$ and satisfying interviewing officers they can get a job and support their family in a recession. Furthermore affidavits of support will be more difficult to get due to financial hardship by many americans.
3. Therefore more people are going to fail interviews in DV2009 compared to previous years.
4. Therefore more case numbers will get an interview in DV2009.

It's difficult for people in your situation - high case numbers. As you have no control over whether you get an interview my suggestions are:

• focus on the things you do have control over. Don't look at this forum every day. Check back once a month to save torturing yourself.
• In the meanwhile make sure you are 100% certain of passing the interview first attempt. If you get an interview it is likely to be in September. You might only get one chance. Remember that at least 1/2 the petitioners fail their interviews or otherwise do not meet the DV requirements. So don't let that happen to you. It looks very simple to meet the requirements for DV but actually it's not.

Hi !!! Thanks for your kind suggestions. Sure that helps me a lot. But still have some confusions over what you said like the requirements I have to meet? What is so hard to be eligible? I should be greatful if you can just clear the things out so that i can prepare them when the right time come up!! I am all the way from Nepal. Do you have any idea about it?

 

[slackerdemigod]

Preparing for the interview

The consular staff will be assessing your ability to get a job and support yourself without access to public funds, and to contribute to US society. There are specific criteria on education, work experience, and funds to help them make this decision. If you fail to prove that you meet all these requirements at the time of the interview, and the consular staff have any reason to suspect you will struggle in the US, then they can and often do deny visas.

Many applications fail because of over-confidence or lack of preparation or documentation:

• visas have been denied because although the petitioner had proof of a university degree (diploma, transcript) they did not present evidence of high school education.
• visas are routinely denied because the petitioner does not have sufficient funds.
• visas are denied because English language skills are not enough
• going the work experience route is risky: the O*Net job definitions are very narrow, and it's difficult to prove you match the job role.

You need to prove through documentation that you exactly meet the requirements of the visa. So while it's nice to show a university degree, it is essential that you fully prove you have a 12-year high school education and equivalent of high school diploma.
You need to satisfy the interviewing officer that you can get a job in the most difficult work environment in the US in 30 years - by mid-2009 it is likely 1 out of 12 American workers will not have a job.

Things you can do to prepare for your interview:

• Correct any errors in your application with KCC as soon as possible. No surprises in the interview.
• Prove your high school education is the equivalent of 12-years at a US high school. For people in a developed country this is relatively easy. For other countries with a different educational system, consider getting your education record evaluated by a NACES member. (Costs around US$75.)
  Don't assume evidence of a university degree is enough. You must be able to prove you meet the high school requirement.
• Establish a good working history before the interview: get documentary proof of previous/current job roles. Try to get promoted and increase you salary before the interview. Get professional/industry certifications. Join professional/industry organizations. Get a good understanding of the job opportunities in the US - what roles are available/suitable - what makes you think you can get these jobs?
• Save money. Don't gamble on currency movements. If you are close to the minimum fund requirements, then convert to the US dollar as soon as possible. If the US dollar suddenly rises 2-3 months before your interview, then you might not have time to get more funds.
• Build up a financial history. A one time deposit of US$20,000 one month before the interview will raise questions where the money came from. On the otherhand a gradually increasing bank balance over 1 year along with tax returns and pay slips is good evidence that you can work and save money.
• Provide evidence you pay taxes.
• Prepare a budget for your first three months in the US - or for as long as it will take to get a job. i.e. Understand the living costs in the area you plan to move to. Get a realistic idea of how long it will take to get a job. Have a clear understanding how you will support yourself while looking for a job. You might not need to show evidence of this, but you need to demonstrate to the interviewing officer you have carefully researched and thought about this.
• If you have only basic knowledge of English, then take night-classes to improve.
• Keep up a close connection to friends and relatives in the US. You might need their help.

In the meanwhile get on with your life at home! Don’t stress out about it. If you don’t get an interview, or fail to get a visa, then you were meant to do something else bigger and better.

 

[darkhorse]

The PDF is not working, wonder why?

 

[darkhorse]

""Remember that at least 1/2 the petitioners fail their interviews or otherwise do not meet the DV requirements."" -- Slackerdemigod

Somehow, it seems plausible, so many people do mess up their application, but anyway, how do you get to that figure, 50%?