Deal on Immigration Bill seems likely

thera33

Registered Users (C)
There are rumblings in the media that a Immigration Bill will pass this year...Senators and House representatives are seeing eye to eye on key issues like allowing illegals to go home and return.....however there are some aspects to iron out in the family reunification section....The Senate is tipped to release their bill as early as this week, to be voted on the last week of May. While in the House it will be the last week of July.
 
There are rumblings in the media that a Immigration Bill will pass this year...Senators and House representatives are seeing eye to eye on key issues like allowing illegals to go home and return.....however there are some aspects to iron out in the family reunification section....The Senate is tipped to release their bill as early as this week, to be voted on the last week of May. While in the House it will be the last week of July.


There seems to be no deal likely until next presidential election 2008, which is 18 months away. I have been hearing about this CIR/Immigration relief bills since Oct 2005, but so far nothing has happened yet.....there is no progress whatsoever.
 
My prediction:

CIR/STRIVE will not pass this year. Lawmakers will never have common ground on amnesty issue. At the end, they will attach small piecemeal (similar like S 1932 of 2005) for legals with any appropriation bill.

Wait up to end of this year as pro-CIR lawmakers will not release hostages (legal provision) until CIR fails.
 
My prediction:

CIR/STRIVE will not pass this year. Lawmakers will never have common ground on amnesty issue. At the end, they will attach small piecemeal (similar like S 1932 of 2005) for legals with any appropriation bill.

Wait up to end of this year as pro-CIR lawmakers will not release hostages (legal provision) until CIR fails.


I dont think End-of-the-year has a chance... All showdown Will and Must Happen Before August 15th 2007. Kinda our Independence Day :)
Houze and Senate goes into Recess after that... This will be the last topic they will handle...

After they come back, no-one will care to see the immigration until the next president come on board

My beleif, is We have a very fair chance to see some movement in the immigration this year... Main reason being the Captain of the ship (Bush) is supportive of this.... We are in the mindst of historical changes in this country. If immigration reform doesnt happen, this time (esp.legal ones) the entire demographics of this land will change...
 
I had a con call with my lawyer yesterday about porting my case from EB3 to EB2. He advised me to wait because he felt that there was a strong chance that congress might pass an immigration reform bill sometime this summer. He mentioned the same that there was bi-partisan support for the bill and high chance of its passing. I'm not sure whether he was alluding to the same bill.
 
It all depends on capability of Presidnet Bush to gain his own party confidency, looking at recent polls and Bush approval rate, it's very unlikely anything is going ot happen this year.

Immigration is the only issue where Democrats (who controles house and senate) and President agree upon, However, they both wants to take credit (aka latino votes) for the job. In this circumstances this issue would be a nice bone to carry all along to 2008 elections, if it's resolved now credict will goto Bush and republican party (Carl Rove's idea), However many Democrats wants to see as many mess as they can have in their hand going to 2008 elections Iraq, Immigration, deficit, oh man Hillary and Rock '0' Bama singing duet on our misery,

buckle up and enjoy the show
 
Look at this story. Sen Brownback, who supported last year senate passed CIR, now turning back. Sen. McCain already back off.

"I would not vote for the same bill," Mr. Brownback told reporters yesterday morning, saying that after the bill passed the Senate he had a chance to study its effects and decided it led to too much immigration.
It's a major reversal for a man who is listed as one of seven original sponsors of the bill, along with Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, Massachusetts Democrat, and Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, who spearheaded the bill.


http://washingtontimes.com/national/20070425-110212-8486r.htm
 
Democrats and Republicans are going to negotiating for ever !!!
Majority Senate leader has declared to bring last year CIR or House version STRIVE to Senate floor on May 14 bypassing Judiciary, if they do not end up with common ground.

Same happened last year. Senate Majority Bill Frist threatened (and introduced) to introduce enforcement only bill (Which had legal provision as well), if judiciary not meet dead line.

Road is very hard ahead.
 
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