CEAC data and graphs
- Thread starter dalius
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vladek15425
Well-Known Member
can you paste the link ?
I tried no result !!?
Thanks
I tried no result !!?
Thanks
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Thanks Dalius for these graphs.
Interesting to see the progression of the Issued, Ready etc... cases.
In the first graph, it looks like there are very very few ready cases for the first 60 days of the FY. As if they removed the 'no shows' of Oct and Nov from the CEAC database. Anyone has any thoughts about this?
Interesting to see the progression of the Issued, Ready etc... cases.
In the first graph, it looks like there are very very few ready cases for the first 60 days of the FY. As if they removed the 'no shows' of Oct and Nov from the CEAC database. Anyone has any thoughts about this?
vladek15425
Well-Known Member
Nice job yes house, but very scary graphs hey !!!!!
With the new data we argued a lot actualy pity you werent around to share your opinion !?
If you look at sloner axiom, you will see that i came with a formula which was missing a months process but simon helped me to readjust it, but at the end the result talks for it self and the things are not looking good for 140660 candidates
check it out and lets us know !??Nice job yes house, but very scary graphs hey !!!!!
With the new data we argued a lot actualy pity you werent around to share your opinion !?
If you look at sloner axiom, you will see that i came with a formula which was missing a months process but simon helped me to readjust it, but at the end the result talks for it self and the things are not looking good for 140660 candidates
Well, these graphs are indeed a little scary but there are still a lot of unknowns at this point, re: return rates in the next few months, representativity of the CEAC data etc... Who knows...
It seems the issued # of visas follow a somewhat linear trend for the first 4 months. If you multiply by 12/4, you don't quite reach 50-55k. The issued visa trend will increase probably more exponentially in the next months, especially if they increase the cutoff by several more thousands. What still puzzles me is the trend of the Ready cases. Almost no progression in the first 60 days... I am sure there were some people not showing up at the interview. My guess they are between 10 and 20% of all winning entries that are scheduled an interview. I can remember Raevsky gave some figures about this last Summer, but can't find them.
What is missing in these graphs is the progression of the number of holes between CN cases. I would expect for instance more holes at higher CN numbers because of the country quotas (Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Nepal, Iran, ...). I am pretty sure the super DOS computer creates more holes when it cuts the high admission countries to +/- 6k selectees. That would inflate the max winning CN numbers, and give more chance to the high CN selectees.
Kayend
Active Member
I think even those who do not send their forms to KCC, it also how Ready in CEAC data. If not, we have way too high the Ready status #. Oct cut off, Nepal has 615 issued and 39 Ready which is small # but Iran has 222 issued but 201 Ready and Rest of Asia has 200 issued and 149 Ready. This trend continue to CN # 3000. The ready status is really high and I have doubt it only represent ready for interview or selectees do not turn up.
There are around 33k CN cases in the CEAC system for the first 6 months of the FY (highest CN numbers in the database correspond to March cutoff). If you extrapolate linearly this would make 66k for the whole year. Taking around 21-2.2 dependents per CN case would make the 140k. I don't think the ready include those who did not send their forms.
Kayend
Active Member
If you can get 140k using your formula then why you say it cannot include those who didn't send their forms. Are you suggesting, 140k selectees send their forms which is 100% return rate in DV14?
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Sorry, i did not make myself very clear. I dont think those who did not send their forms would be qualified as readys. That would be strange to call 'ready' a case that does not shown any signs of interest. But ok, i have no proof against your theory. You may have a valid point.
I dont think there is a 100% return rate amongst the 140k selectees neither. That's impossible
What i think is that we cannot extrapolate linearly from the first 6 months. That would mean the progression should slow down in the next months, or we will hit the global quota before the year ends
But high CN cases shall not lose hope. We dont have all the data in hands. We'll know for sure in early July with the Aug VB showing the Sep cutoff. Less than 5 months to go....
Kayend
Active Member
Sorry, i did not make myself very clear. I dont think those who did not send their forms would be qualified as readys. That would be strange to call 'ready' a case that does not shown any signs of interest. But ok, i have no proof against your theory. You may have a valid point.
I dont think there is a 100% return rate amongst the 140k selectees neither. That's impossible
What i think is that we cannot extrapolate linearly from the first 6 months. That would mean the progression should slow down in the next months, or we will hit the global quota before the year ends
But high CN cases shall not lose hope. We dont have all the data in hands. We'll know for sure in early July with the Aug VB showing the Sep cutoff. Less than 5 months to go....
I think everything related to DV is strange. So, if "Ready" also mean CN is ready for application, I won't be surprise. If we throw any logic into DV, it just don't work. Sometimes I really feel that we are predicting the unpredictable.
Kayend
Active Member
I have the same understanding as you before I look at the data. Anyway, it is not important at this point. I am just throwing ideas when I see something strange.
Looks like dalius (thanks for this fantastic work BTW!) has updated the graphs. Interesting to see how the ready cases increase (exponentially...), while the number of issued visas show a somewhat linear trend.
http://dv2014.tumblr.com/
http://dv2014.tumblr.com/
SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
Someone who did not send their forms in would not be "ready".
There must be some double counting in these numbers unless they are retroactively updated as well - for example someone who was ready a month ago and has since had their interview is now issued, refused or AP. But if the previous "ready" is just left as is and newer ones added even while previous ones have progressed, the cumulative "ready" total will be overstated. (Or, why it looks exponential.)
Although that cumulative total still is useful because it tells you total number of interviews available during the course of DV2014.
There must be some double counting in these numbers unless they are retroactively updated as well - for example someone who was ready a month ago and has since had their interview is now issued, refused or AP. But if the previous "ready" is just left as is and newer ones added even while previous ones have progressed, the cumulative "ready" total will be overstated. (Or, why it looks exponential.)
Although that cumulative total still is useful because it tells you total number of interviews available during the course of DV2014.
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SusieQQQ
Well-Known Member
This is what "ready" means on CEAC. It is someone who has sent their forms in and has not yet gone to interview. Maybe they decided not to bother but a lot of these will be for cases scheduled for interviews yet to come too.
___
Your case is ready for your interview when scheduled at the U.S. Consular section. If you have already scheduled an appointment for an interview, please prepare your documents as directed in your appointment letter and appear at the consulate on the appointed date and time. Otherwise, please wait until you have been notified of your interview appointment. Additional information about how Immigrant Visa interview appointments are scheduled can be found at: http://travel.state.gov/visa/immigrants/info/info_3731.html
---
Note this is a standard format for all IV cases and as we know for DV these only come up after the interview has been scheduled.
I cannot see any conclusion from these data apart from that they will run out of visa numbers this year...
Dalius, in your first graphs, did you plot the cases with or without dependants?
Showing around 14,000 visas issued in these graphs would indeed make things a little scary if dependants are not in there. If you multiply by around 2.1-2.3 (nb of dependants for each CN case), this would mean at least 30k visas were issued in the first 5 months of the run.... And some people believe not all valid DV cases are in the CEAC database.
Showing around 14,000 visas issued in these graphs would indeed make things a little scary if dependants are not in there. If you multiply by around 2.1-2.3 (nb of dependants for each CN case), this would mean at least 30k visas were issued in the first 5 months of the run.... And some people believe not all valid DV cases are in the CEAC database.
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