BCIS stats for this month. From immigration-law.com. Astounding backlogs.

D

davh

Registered Users (C)
See the chart in immigration-law.com to get a visual idea of the backlogs.

Applications and petitions for immigration benefits in August 2003 increased 10 percent compared to the number received in August 2002. August approvals were down 3 percent, while denials decreased by 6 percent when compared to August 2002. For the first eleven months of fiscal year 2003 receipts increased 2 percent, while approvals decreased 18 percent compared to the same period for fiscal year 2002.

Data Source: PAS G-22.2
1 Receipts and Pending do not reflect an estimated 3,900 I-485s filed but not data entered.


· Total immigration application pending cases reached 5,442,799, a 36 percent increase when compared to August 2002.
· Major volumes in August 2003 receipts include: 244,090 I-765 employment authorizations; 57,880 I-130 relative petitions; 52,156 I-90 Green Card renewals/replacements; and 51,332 I-485 permanent resident adjustments.
· Major volumes of pending cases at the end of August 2003 include: 1,869,175 I-130 relative petitions; 1,225,136 I-485 permanent resident adjustments; 807,380 I-90 Green Card renewals/replacements; and 402,248 I-765 employment authorizations.
 
This is Not Astounding

From what I have been able to gather, there are at best only 5 I-485 adjudicators at each service center. They process on average 15-20 cases per day each. At 17.5 cases each per day that is only 7700 cases per month they have capacity to process.

So if that is there capacity and they recieve 50,000 cases per month, then another 43,000 will be added to the backlog every month. Another way of looking at this is that at the current resource allocation it would take them 6.5 months to clear each months worth of receipts. Or the waiting time increases by 5 months for each new months worth of receipts.

Unless they allocate more resources to I-485 adjudications then the backlog wil continue to grow. If they receive 50,000 applications per month, then to maintain current waiting times overall you need about 129 adjudicators across all of the SC's. This would seem to be about 6 times the number they have today.
 
Those are scary statistics

Paul, you sure about the 5 adjudicators for each SC?

If that is the case, this is just a hopeless proposition. The 7700 cases is an optimistic scenario - when you factor in time off, sickness, etc, for these adjudicators, this whole AOS process is just not going anywhere.

K
 
As Certain as One Can Be

Here are the sources that I used to conclude about the 20 adjudicators. Admittedly this only relates to 5 at VSC and 5 at NSC, so I am only assuming that TSC and CSC are no better (perhaps they are worse.


http://www.masudafunai.com/english/practices/immigration/up08-04-03.asp

http://www.immigrationportal.com/showthread.php?s=&threadid=99097&highlight=adjugator

The second posting is where I obtained the details about 15-20 cases per adjudicator per day, I averaged this to 17.5. I suspect this is optimistic given the new security reviews.
 
Avaerage increase in backlog in last 10 months is

24,381

The attached excel has all the 485 numbers that have collected since past 2 years.

Notice the charts, where the pending number keeps on increasing.

Actually the processing was quite good till July-02, where the pending cases kept on reducing

I have collected some numbers from the website
http://www.immigration.gov/graphics/shared/aboutus/statistics/msraug03/index.htm

Just change the month and year at the end of the link and you will find the stats for that month.
 
Re: This is Not Astounding

Originally posted by paulclarke1
From what I have been able to gather, there are at best only 5 I-485 adjudicators at each service center.
Click to expand...

From the link you sent, it seems that the 5 adjudicators is a temporarly situation . I wouldnt agree that at best there are 5 adjudicators at each service center. The number more likely is 19+

Here's the relevant information posted from

http://www.masudafunai.com/english/practices/immigration/up08-04-03.asp

"The Center acknowledges that the processing date of employment-based Forms I-485 has not moved much since early 2003. The Center indicated that it has taken a 75% cut in officers assigned to this product line. The Center currently only has five officers working on this product line. The Center stated that it anticipates that it will return to pre-cut levels of production by October 1st and that its planning to augment the staff on the product line by three officers at that time bringing the total number of officers on that product line to 19. "

The precut level would have been 16. Augment that by 3 more officers and we have a number of 19.

And this update is just from the Nebraska center
 
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Re: And

thats wht i figured and a major part of those number are non-employment based. else us employment based filers wud be genuinely screwed.


Originally posted by gc_aug_05
I beleive the above 485 numbers include employment, family etc etc in all Service centers
Click to expand...
 
Maybe Temporary

While this situation may be temporary, we have yet to see any evidence that any of the SC's are working more cases than they did pre Oct 1. It seems to me that temporary may be the case for a while yet.
 
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