AILA VB prediction for Oct07 (FY2008)

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belacut

Registered Users (C)
After you are reading this AILA VB prediction, what is the point for the DOS to lift the flood gate back in June and July.

It let goes thousands of people who had 2004 or 2005 PD while a lot of people like myself with 2003 PD or even earlier and patiently waiting to file the AOS in 2007.

Most of these people with late PD are just being very lucky to get their LC cleared quicker and can file it before the first retro hit back in 2005.

What a mess here in US immigrations systems..... :eek: :confused: :mad:

++Quoted from OH law firm++
08/22/2007: October 2007 EB Visa Bulletin Prediction of AILA

Based on the discussion with Charlie Oppenheim, Chief of Immigrant Visa Control and Reporting, DOS, the AILA has just released the following predictions:
EB-1 (All Countries): Closely match to September 2007 VB
EB-2 (All Countries): Closely match to September 2007 VB
EB-3 (All Countries): Similar to January 2007 VB
EB-3EW (All Countries): 10/01/2001
EB-4: N/A
EB-5: C
++ UNQUOTED ++
 
I agree with you. A few months ago EB3 ROW priority date was June 05, now this report from AILA says the PD will be back to August 02. I just dont understand the point of making everything current. It seems I was so close to the numbers being current, and then the floodgates opened and now the PD is screwed up again for EB3 ROW.

How long do you think it will take for me to get the g/c looking at my signature ? Jackolantern...any others guesses ?
 
This is horrible, and very credible coming from AILA
We are in for a LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG WAIT
Maybe too long...
Maybe not long enough to be worth it...
 
In enjoy your bolding the INDIA line, but they all happen to be very retrogressed, so at this point who cares if it's 2001, 2002, 1873 or 200 AC?
The point is that nobody who filed in the past 5 years will be current, and that makes no sense.
 
well, the real issue is how fast the dates would move towards current especially for the oversubscribed countries.

This system is good, however, in the sense that AILA is being given inside information regarding the dates in advance so that people are not caught unawares when their dates suddenly become current.
 
tusharvk said:
well, the real issue is how fast the dates would move towards current especially for the oversubscribed countries.

This system is good, however, in the sense that AILA is being given inside information regarding the dates in advance so that people are not caught unawares when their dates suddenly become current.
Click to expand...

This system is NO GOOD becaz no matter what is your PD, you are always subject to "LUCK" in order to get out. So, there is no logic for FIFO.
I am in 2003PD ROW, there are some guys who has 99, 00, 01 and 02 PD where they are still waiting for the AOS clearance. (But when you are looking at it closely, some in the India line who has PD 2004 or later who just being lucky to file the AOS before the retro hits back in 2005 are already get the GC because of the July big present from DOS.)

So, what about those stoneaged india brothers who can just file the AOS at 2007 (especially those for EB3 India)? PD is not current again and they are stoned to wait for another a few years to see the next CIS July big surprise?

:confused:
 
They are throwing the dates artificially far back because they like to start the year being lazy.

Later in the fiscal year (like next April-June) the pressure will be on them to start approving more cases. That's when the dates will probably start moving to reflect reality. Sending the dates back to what they were in January of this year is not reality.
 
Hi Guys

Just Thought

There is 200k application without 140 approval, this is including july filers.

there is lot of chance for those who got their I-140 approved, even their PD '2006.

you can see people getting approved PD'2005 EB2 cases, even then VB says now 2004'apr for EB2.They are not processing based on PD now and in future also i gues.Since we have already filed.PD will restrict only to File I-485 in future.

They are not following any PD for the last 3-months approval, I don't believe any rule they have.Now already under pressure , and the pressure started already.They have to clean up.I don't think they will wait untill next year June, since Election is on Sept'2008.

- satish
 
In a recent article from the law office of Jan Pederson,

"During fiscal year 2007 (October 1, 2006 through July 2007),USCIS processed over 18,000 EB3 cases for persons born in India and of that number, 8,000 were processed during June 2007 and 7,000 were processed during July 2007. This represents five years worth of allocated visa numbers. The annual limit for India is 2,800 per year in the EB3 category. "


http://www.ilw.com/articles/2007,0807-pederson.shtm

So if I were to be logical for a minute :D I would say that anyone who filed in June (8000 cases) were cases with PD between May 08, 2001 and June ,2003. No one else as I understand could have filed for AOS since their apps (PD's) would not have been current.

I am not going to consider the July filers (but it might be that there may be some late filers with PD earlier than June 2003)

In a logical sense (again not to say this should or would happen), the October 2007 VB should list PD's somewhere between May 8, 2001 and Dec '01 - the reasoning is that anyone before May 8, 2001 would have already applied and been accounted for already and then they should start processing on the basis of earliest PD to later (or am I mistaken in this count)

One question though would be - are these 8000 cases counting family members too (Spouses & children)

Another point if you look at the numbers hard are
- if you have only 2800 numbers available for EB3 in year and USCIS processed 18000 cases of which 15000 are in the last 2 months, that leaves 3000 which were received prior. So in essence there should not have been any visa numbers left over :confused:

Sorry for a long posting, but I am confused and am trying to understand the math for determining the PD's

Sincerely



P.S. My PD is July 2002 - god knows when my app will be current but atleast I got to file and may be I can take advantage of AC 21
 
Agree

Jackolantern said:
They are throwing the dates artificially far back because they like to start the year being lazy.

Later in the fiscal year (like next April-June) the pressure will be on them to start approving more cases. That's when the dates will probably start moving to reflect reality. Sending the dates back to what they were in January of this year is not reality.
Click to expand...

I agree with you Jacko. This is almost certainly being orchestrated strategically. The final quarter of the year is where the real movements of PDs happen. If you are from retrogressionland, then thats the time you have to look forward to. If you miss it one year then virtually you just wait for the next one! Unfortunately thats what EB immigration has degenerated into. Gone are the AC21 visa number recapture days of 2001-2005 where that extra boost of 250K or so numbers helped keep the supply constant and visa numbers current.

The other thing I thought about is, now the USCIS knows for certain until what dates they can move the cut off so as not to get a flood of new 485s. ie until the date of this VB fiasco. Therefore in the future we might find that they move the dates quite aggressively until July 2007 or so but will not move beyond that. I doubt there is anyone who could have filed in July and did not do so! They clearly do not need any more 485 filings and know exactly how to prevent that.
 
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