A new time prediction which I hope is wrong -- consider this:

C

CNEB1VSC

Registered Users (C)
The average number of approved cases registered at the immitracker vsc site is 48 per month. The number of registered cases increases at a monthly rate of k=1.1945 (average). Based on these numbers, we can figure out roughly how long one has to wait for his or her approval. I have an ND of 06\'00 and the number of months I have to wait = (49+97*k+91*k^2+30*k^3+9*k^4+69*k^5+57*k^6+28*k^7+11*k^8+8*k^9)/48=18 months.
Notice the numbers are the waiting cases starting from 08\'99. This is terrible and I hope somebody can prove me wrong.

Note that I made a prediction earlier and that was way too optimistic due to the assumption that it would take VSC 6 months to process all 08\'99 and 09\'99 cases. We know that they only finish about half of them according to immitracker data. The current formula is only slightly pessimistic because I require all the case before 06\'00 to be approved. I may be lucky and get approved before other people. Here is the calculation for the k

vsc0317=[231 115 36 19 70 57 28 11 8 13 16 17 45 38];
vsc0211=[193 83 25 8 51 38 18 9 5 9 13 13 36 32];
k=mean(vsc0317./vsc0211*30/36) = 1.1945
 
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According to sycometric theorem ur formula is wrong. so you will get wrong results. If you would like to the formula for sycometric theroem , let me know
 
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CNEBVSC1 - you are being too pessimistic:

1999 AUG - SEP - OCT cases for EB2 have been current for a long time
AUG cases of EB3 would most likely have been current (mainly people
who were waiting for years filed 485 in Aug 99).
By end of next month most EB3 cases would be covered by VSC\'s process - if PD goed to Feb 1st 1999. A person who applied for 485 in Oct 1999 should most likley have applied prior to this.

So in APR MAY JUN they will be processing mainly EB3 which are old
and EB2s which are later than EB3s (and fewer in number). If they go by 485 ND then they will soon have only EB3 cases to process !

So by end of June they should be over the bump of AUG to OCT 99
and even Nov 99, We know Nov Dec 99 are fewer and Jan 00 is higher.
2000 Feb March are fewer. These cases should go faster as FP will already be done by then.

Lets wait and see - and dont lose hope
 
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Raju: Thanks. I would be happy if you can point to me any major mistakes I am making. My prediction of 18 months for RD 06\'00 is based on two points:
1) VSC approves 48 cases per month on the average based on the registered data in the past. I expect VSC to continue to do so.
2) The number of waiting cases registered increases at 1.19 month over month.

I agree with you that the approval rate might increase given the fact that lots of FP have been done. However, the number of registered waiting cases indeed increases month by month. Intuitively we would hope that VSC would speed up their approval rate per month, but who knows. VSC have been working on cases of 08-09\'99 for seven months and they have only finished half of them according immitracker data.
 
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CNEB1VSC - the immitracker data is skewed in more than one way:

people dont post till they hear from VSC about something:
FP, RFE or Approval/Intent to Deny

people dont post AFTER they are approved:
So the case remains in FP/RFE stage for example.

So I believe that most AUG and SEP EB2 cases are done !
The Aug and Sep EB3 cases are the ones that we\'ll be hearing about
mostly now on.
 
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Good point! You meant the registered data is skewed in a sense that more problemic cases tend to get registered more frequently than those withhout any RFEs. I agree with you that VSC has gone through all 8-9\'99 cases and approved those without any problems because almost all the new approvals of 8-9\'99 cases have RFEs.
 
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Could it be possible that you are making too much out of this? Here is a message from a guy who should know more than us:

03/23-26/2001
According to the State Department, we can expect to see employment-based second preference numbers for India and China becoming current in the near future, possibly as early as May or June. EB-3 numbers for China and India are expected to advance at probably four-five months or more per calendar month. We are being told that EB-3 numbers for all nationalities should become current by December this year, unless there is a sudden increase in green card filings. Rajiv.

That was a message from Rajiv Khanna and appears on the home page.
 
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CNEBVSC1 - if only 90% of the posters put their approval then
the time you calculate will reduce by two months.

Next - the months after april the k factor has to be adjusted lower - because they will have a higher rate of posting - due to FP being done already. The stages for posting info for the first time:
485 filing
AP/EAD receipt
FP
RFE
Approval/Intent to deny
So all the folks after Mar 2000 being current and having FP done
will post earlier than Oct 99 to Mar 00 who waited till FP to post !

Can you re-adjust your k to have k1 (prior to April 2000)
and k2 (April 2000 and later) ?

Amar - we are trying to predict when we will get approved AFTER
taking into account all the information thats available including
the information you posted.
 
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PD : 03.21.98. ND, RD around 10/21/1999.
FP 3/1/2001. FP cleared by FBI. EB-3, INDIA
PD not current at this time! Will become current on MAY 1st(i hope)
Any prediction on when I will get approval?
Assuming no RFE or any other problems.
Trust me, There are thousands of cases like mine waiting in VSC.
VSC can not look at my case till 5/1/2001 because of PD problem.
So VSC will be processing OCT 99 cases for another 6 to 7 months
unless some mirracle happens. Friend of mine has the same PD etc.
But he filed his 485 only in Feb 2000. So do your math guys.
VSC will take another 1 1/2 to 1 3/4 years to process April 2000 cases
 as PDs are getting current.
Any input is welcome
 
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Rama: How could you file your I-485 as early as Oct\'00? I thought that one was not allowed to file I-485 untile his PD is current. It is certainly good for you. No offense here, I just want to understand the process better.
 
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it is OCTOBER 1999. not 2000.
Case history:
March 1998 EB3/RIR INDIA
Labour approved : 10/1998
I-140 applied : 11/1998
approved : 09/1999
PDs were current in OCTOBER 1999 till MARCH 2000(i believe)
Filed for I-485 IN 10/1999.
WAITING FOR 1 1/2 YEARS NOW.
FP DONE ON MARCH 1ST 2001.
 
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it is OCTOBER 1999. not 2000.
Case history:
March 1998 EB3/RIR INDIA
Labour approved : 10/1998
I-140 applied : 11/1999
approved : 09/1999
PDs were current in OCTOBER 1999 till MARCH 2000(i believe)
Filed for I-485 IN 10/1999.
WAITING FOR 1 1/2 YEARS NOW.
FP DONE ON MARCH 1ST 2001.
 
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