7 Percent Country Limit - question for the gurus

[Pumpkin_Head]

A maximum of 7% of all available visas can be issued to any one country, and 7% of 50,000 equals a maximum of 3500 visas per country. The amount of letters that went out to winners of the lottery is over 3500 in the following countries:

BANGLADESH 7,404 NIGERIA 6,725 POLAND 6,211 ETHIOPIA 6,060 UKRAINE 5,361 BULGARIA 4,068 GHANA 3,974 KENYA 3,618

When do you think Poland will reach the limit? Take an educated guess from what you've observed in other DV years.

What are the chances that Poland will reach its country limit before Sept 30th?

Nigeria and Bangladesh seem to already have hit thier limits according to the visa bulletin. Poland is next in line.

 

[gkis]

Well, you are forgetting something

Do not forget, that these visas include family members, and that not all people that are sent notification actually take adventage of this chance....

 

[Pumpkin_Head]

Agreed, but obviously Bangladesh and Nigeria have reached the limit, and Poland is not far off from the amount of letters that were sent out to applicants from that country. For Poland to reach the limit all you need is for more than 3500 of the lottery winners from that country to be granted a green card.

Look at it this way....Even if only 57% of the people that got the winnig letter also successfully get the visa, Poland will have gone over its county limit.

So, I ask again, take a guess during which month this will occur, if at all. I beleive it is quite close.

 

[adesoji]

No, No , No,
you are geting it wrong, remember that the the # in the billetin does not represent amont of visa issued.
Example :
1 to 50 are give a winning letter 40 actually got the letter ( remember in KCC the No 1-50 still reman the winners).
in the 1st month KCC place 1 to 10 current but 2,6,7.are lost on transit, so the visa intended for pple is 10 but 7 will be issue and 3 more chance will be added to the next #, which mean you may be counting on visa billitin while the actully visa issued is less than the # pasted.

That Nigeria is has reach 21,700 those not mean that the actual visas given out is 21,700. and mind you the # is for AF not only Nigeria. i am 45**2 and 45**3 can be in another country which means that the # in the Visa billitin does not represent the contry # or visa Issued out .

hope there is a little light on this

Anybody with better idea ?

 

[Pumpkin_Head]

Well, mark my words, it has happened..... Poland is nearing its country limit of 3500 visas, and so the State Department has issued a cutoff number of EU20000, for applicants from Poland.

The question remains, how close are they to the 3500 mark? When will they run out of visas completely for that country?

Can people from Poland waiting for an interview that have a NL and a case number under EU20000 still get a visa, or is it game-over for people from Poland?