2007 statistics
- Thread starter asd22
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I AM SO MAD. LAST YR, THEY GAVE OUT 40,777 VISAS WHEN SO MANY FOLKS FROM NIGERIA WERE EITHER DENIED VISA OR THEIR NUMBER NEVER BECAME CURRENT.
THAT IS 10,000 UNUSED VISAS. THIS IS VERY REDICULOUS.
I am not sure you totally understand the rules of the DV. No country is able to get more then 7% of the available visas. Nigeria was just three hundred shy of that. Even though only 40,000 visa’s were issued, under current US Diversity law Nigeria could only have received another 317 visa’s. So it really would not have helped any one in Nigeria if there were 30,000 spare visa’s.
Every country has its fair chance at getting a visa. The DV is designed to protect against high volume participation from any one eligible country. There are countries such as Nigeria that have near incredible amounts of applications for the DV every year, but there is just not enough visa’s to go around. Its unfortunate but the US has to implement immigration controls to protect its citizens and Economy, however that’s another debate!
There were only 12,000 visa’s issued in the EU. I think this is the main reason that the visa numbers were down over all last year.
Interesting enough just three countries from the EU took up 50% of those visa’s Ukraine/Uzbekistan/Bulgaria. The other 6000 were spread over the rest of the entire region. I think this is exactly what is happening at the moment too and that is why the EU numbers are moving so quick. I reckon people from the EU are thinking of not taking up their GC’s due to the expected economic climate in the US for the foreseeable future.
That's a very good point by Alemitmee.
We have to keep one more thing in mind. The task of determining the number of lottery winners is a very delicate balancing act for the KCC.
On the one hand if too many winners are chosen, then there is a risk that some of those who won the lottery will not get a chance to face a visa interview. There being too many disappointed "winners" is certainly something that should be avoided.
On the other hand if too few winners are chosen then there is a risk that many available visas will get wasted.
I don't think it is all that easy to predict in advance what percentage of the winners will be interested in pursuing their case further and what percentage of those who do so will succeed at CP or AOS.
We have to keep one more thing in mind. The task of determining the number of lottery winners is a very delicate balancing act for the KCC.
On the one hand if too many winners are chosen, then there is a risk that some of those who won the lottery will not get a chance to face a visa interview. There being too many disappointed "winners" is certainly something that should be avoided.
On the other hand if too few winners are chosen then there is a risk that many available visas will get wasted.
I don't think it is all that easy to predict in advance what percentage of the winners will be interested in pursuing their case further and what percentage of those who do so will succeed at CP or AOS.
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I appreciate that every on this forum is constantly trying to second guess the DV and visa numbers (me included) but I have to say I disagree with your posts. After extensive research into to DV I have realised that there far too many variables involved to make this kind of sweeping conclusion. It is a generally accepted fact that many from the EU don’t tend to peruse their visa applications, in comparison to say AS or AF regions. this can help to explain the lower EU numbers. Most of the EU countries have fantastic social and economic conditions, just like the US and people from many of those countries have a real choice, and some decided that its just not worth the hassle of moving to the US after all, why move from family and friends and good jobs? When you can have a just as good a live in your home country.
Also there are a few countries in the EU region, not in the actual European union that have very high applicant numbers, UZBEKISTAN 3,101 TURKEY 2,188 ALBANIA 2,862. These three countries alone make up 1/3 of total EU applicants. These countries can only get a certain amount of visas and while they are all below the 3500 visa threshold allowed, it is likely that the visa numbers will get tied up in these countries quickly, This situation will distort the EU numbers some what. When you take out these countries you are left with about 16000 applicants, and it is likely that many of them may not bother to purse there visa’s. even if 20% did not, we would be down to 13000 applicants and don’t forget that not every one who applies and gets interviewed will be successful either. You could probably take out another 10/15% again leaving the actual numbers very different from what they may have seemed at first.
You also have to take into account that numbers may be current, but countries just may not have the time or resources to schedule interviews for everyone, or may not have enough numbers to go around for all people current. Some embassies may be quicker then others at processing too.
Anyway my general point is that your post above is a far to simplistic view of the DV and there are many more things to consider if you are to make a balanced opinion.
You may be right, but you are really just guessing, no one knows and if this is based on your percentage analysis then it is a flawed statement based on another inaccurate statistical guess
This is only one forum and most of what gets posted on here is taken at face value, no way of proving it, I could just as easily say I know some one that has a CN higher then this and who could ever prove me right or wrong?. There are 40-50 thousand people involved in the DV2007 yet we only see posts on here from a few hundred people at the very most. Just because no one has posted a successful CN above 16022 is hardly conclusive evidence that there is not one, use your head!!
You are of course entitled to your opinion and this is a discussion forum, but if you are going to make such concrete statements you should have concrete evidence to back them up. Time of course time will tell but I for one believe that CN’s will all go current again this year for all regions, apart from some individual countries that may reach there quotas during the fiscal year.
When you think about it 15625 out of 22000 is about 70% when you take into account the people who did not qualify (say 15% ) and the people that did not want to peruse (say 15%), this is probably about right although there were not that many visas issued I am sure the majority of people from the EU who wanted a visa had a chance at getting one. You have to look at the bigger picture its not just about the amount of visas issued its about lots of things.
With out access to the kind of statistics that KCC would have all our theorising is just that... "theorising". If I manage to get a visa for DV 2008, with my high CN then we will see once and for all that High CN’s can get you a visa in the end just as a low one can.
It seems a lot of the people from developed countries play Green Card Lotarry for fun; look at the numbers of Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Ukraine, and etc.
What else could we conclude that the 60% of the winners from countries like France, Germany, Australia etc are disqualified, I dont belive so.
Originally Posted by alemitmee View Post
I appreciate that every on this forum is constantly trying to second guess the DV and visa numbers (me included) but I have to say I disagree with your posts. After extensive research into to DV I have realised that there far too many variables involved to make this kind of sweeping conclusion. It is a generally accepted fact that many from the EU don’t tend to peruse their visa applications, in comparison to say AS or AF regions. this can help to explain the lower EU numbers. Most of the EU countries have fantastic social and economic conditions, just like the US and people from many of those countries have a real choice, and some decided that its just not worth the hassle of moving to the US after all, why move from family and friends and good jobs? When you can have a just as good a live in your home country.
Also there are a few countries in the EU region, not in the actual European union that have very high applicant numbers, UZBEKISTAN 3,101 TURKEY 2,188 ALBANIA 2,862. These three countries alone make up 1/3 of total EU applicants. These countries can only get a certain amount of visas and while they are all below the 3500 visa threshold allowed, it is likely that the visa numbers will get tied up in these countries quickly, This situation will distort the EU numbers some what. When you take out these countries you are left with about 16000 applicants, and it is likely that many of them may not bother to purse there visa’s. even if 20% did not, we would be down to 13000 applicants and don’t forget that not every one who applies and gets interviewed will be successful either. You could probably take out another 10/15% again leaving the actual numbers very different from what they may have seemed at first.
You also have to take into account that numbers may be current, but countries just may not have the time or resources to schedule interviews for everyone, or may not have enough numbers to go around for all people current. Some embassies may be quicker then others at processing too.
Anyway my general point is that your post above is a far to simplistic view of the DV and there are many more things to consider if you are to make a balanced opinion.
You may be right, but you are really just guessing, no one knows and if this is based on your percentage analysis then it is a flawed statement based on another inaccurate statistical guess
This is only one forum and most of what gets posted on here is taken at face value, no way of proving it, I could just as easily say I know some one that has a CN higher then this and who could ever prove me right or wrong?. There are 40-50 thousand people involved in the DV2007 yet we only see posts on here from a few hundred people at the very most. Just because no one has posted a successful CN above 16022 is hardly conclusive evidence that there is not one, use your head!!
You are of course entitled to your opinion and this is a discussion forum, but if you are going to make such concrete statements you should have concrete evidence to back them up. Time of course time will tell but I for one believe that CN’s will all go current again this year for all regions, apart from some individual countries that may reach there quotas during the fiscal year.
When you think about it 15625 out of 22000 is about 70% when you take into account the people who did not qualify (say 15% ) and the people that did not want to peruse (say 15%), this is probably about right although there were not that many visas issued I am sure the majority of people from the EU who wanted a visa had a chance at getting one. You have to look at the bigger picture its not just about the amount of visas issued its about lots of things.
With out access to the kind of statistics that KCC would have all our theorising is just that... "theorising". If I manage to get a visa for DV 2008, with my high CN then we will see once and for all that High CN’s can get you a visa in the end just as a low one can.
what makes you think that many couples are being denied?
is there any posting for people being denied on the forum, I have never seen any?
There are no technical questions as this is not a job interview.It's just about your ability to express yourself in English Language and to be able to prove that once in America you can survive without being a recourse on pulic funds.You also be able to demonstrate that you are smart enough to LIVE in a pure capitalist country like USA.