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Checking now and filling out your DS-260 late has not affected your chances. Judging by your case number, however, I'm very sorry to say you have next to no chance of being issued a visa.

I was beginning to hope we were well short of half way! What's your current estimate on the final number?

A small jump of 50 is very bleak. I was hoping for 100 at least, preferably 150. Looks like another high density year -- very bad for high number people.

Not a great return for OC either.

Indeed. And this is an interesting case: Americans say 'different than' or 'different from'. Spotting a 'different to' is one of the best ways to sniff out Brits or Aussies trying to hide their Anglo-Antipodean backgrounds :p In a similar fashion, many Americans leave out the 'of' when saying...

Not sure what you mean here. I'm inferring you expect up to 700 visas issued in the CEAC numbers for OC, which means you expect 100 or more AoS cases? (134 if the second column is the quota we arrive at.)

Really great stuff, Simon.

They're getting through the CNs faster.

Yes it doesn't take too many extra visas to make a significant impact on our region. I wonder also if the density is a little lower this year than last.

Well, if it's any consolation you're in a better position than me. And I'm afraid all I've come up with after months of numerology and entail-reading is 'maybe I'll be current, likely not.' It's like being a kid with a lollypop held just out of reach.

This exactly. If OC received <769 this year, your ratio changes. And delving into NACARA doesn't seem too far out of the question... Edit: I'm presuming your 2015 prediction is close to the mark, of course!

You're too generous. Group effort then. I guess we need to wait till next year to get final numbers of AoS cases. Did you base your estimate of 80-100 AoS visas on past data?

Blimey, thanks! That's brilliant stuff! You could sell that expertise.

Sorry, misread! You meant quota, not CN? If so, I'll be in comfortably. But how do you figure 80-100?

Hey thanks! I'm hoping, but 100 won't be enough -- I'm higher than 1550. It's tight!

OC 15xx here. That number is touch and go for OC. I'm relying on a low uptake and a high quota. Frustrating stuff. DV2016, here I come.

Define 'reasonable'! The price will vary depending on the day of the week and the time of the year, and Martin Place is an expensive part of town. Your best bet might be the 'mystery' options on wotif, constrained to the Sydney CBD.

Yeah I remember the 'Pacific Peso' years, but I'm not keen to see them return. It's surely inevitable that we'll fall further, so if you're still carrying $A, cash out now folks.

Just a note for people exiting Australia - the $AU is in freefall. If you haven't exchanged at a higher rate, now might be the time. Even now, if you're moving 100k, you're 6k poorer than you were three weeks ago! It's pretty scary stuff.

So much is hinging on that 'roughly'! Highway to hair loss.