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The short answer to your questions is yes. And the effect on progress is more pronounced in some regions than others.

This. The chances of being selected in OC in DV2015 were somewhere around 1 in 20. But: Only around two thirds of the allocated case numbers are going to get an interview. So your chances of actually 'winning' are a good deal less: more like 35/1000. There's probably a higher chance of...

Thanks! Every piece of positive energy helps :)

And it would be bitterly hilarious if they undershot this year because of the DS-260 fiasco.

Do you think there will be a drop? Edit: that would explain the slower progress!

Why would you say there's a natural increase in pace? The density seems pretty constant.

Well friends, we're now 25 behind last year. And we're 40 behind 2013, whose numbers we need to track. Looking damned grim.

I've been doing some numerology with the CEAC numbers, and found something interesting. OC has been issued 251 visas so far, after four months of interviews. If we assume a linear progression, we can multiply this by 12/5 to project issued visas to the year's end: 602. If we presume the number...

I'll bet you a case of beer you're not willing as hard as I am. We high CN people NEED those numbers up.

And the wine. Don't forget the wine.

Yes -- the number of OC people getting visas is fairly consistent year to year: between 650 and 850, depending on the visa quota for that year. Previously, the quota was sufficient for everyone who responded to get an interview. Nowadays they select double or triple the number they need...

What do you think the implications of that might be?

Good stuff, thanks Simon. I'm hanging out for 1100 for OC. Really hanging out.

Aha, right. Back to my knitting.

Now here's something. There's a possible anomaly with the OC numbers in the CEAC extraction. The top OC number is 2111 in the spreadsheet, but there were a couple of posts last year in the OC thread reporting CNs in the 2200's. Like this one...

Gotta say - a little less than I'd hoped. Need a big bump next month.

Hm. That is interesting. A lower response rate in a region would certainly help push the final number higher. I think it might be a little optimistic to believe the OC response rate is down on last year, though there's no way of knowing given the huge AoS numbers and tardiness with processing...

Assuming the same visa/CN rate as last year, assuming an 831-834 quota, I'm getting a max CN for OC of 1585. By the looks of things, 2013 and 2014 had very near the same visa/CN rates, and I'm presuming this continues to 2015.

Woah, 100 AoS cases! That's... a lot. Interestingly, it's almost exactly matches the prediction. I can only pray that: 1. This year's prediction is accurate 2. The density of issued visas vs. case numbers does not increase.

So I just took a look at the 'Report from the Visa Office' for FY 2014, found here http://travel.state.gov/content/dam/visas/Statistics/AnnualReports/FY2014AnnualReport/FY14AnnualReport-TableIII.pdf It shows total DV visas issued for Oceania as 661. Am I correct in thinking this doesn't account...