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Sorry, fella. If it makes you feel any better, here's Simon's latest CEAC extract: http://britsimonsays.com/ceac-data-extract-may-1/ Maybe I made a mistake... If you would have made it last year, my guess is you'll probably be OK? It's putting it mildly to say it wasn't fun times for me...

Well, I used to predict a cutoff of 1580, but I've since revised it way, way down. The CEAC data show there are simply many more OC people responding to the DV opportunity this year. The rate of issued visas per CN is markedly higher than last year. Current prediction for 2015 -- both mine and...

I think you'll be sweet with you number. It is an awesome place. I have a condo there in the Gold Coast not far from N. Michigan Avenue. Beautiful old brownstone. To be honest, I've started to prefer the city over NY in recent years. If the stars align and my number comes up (not too likely at...

This is tangential, but your profile pic looks rather like La Salle St, Chi Town. Is that where you're headed?

Blimey. No pressure, kids! :)

This is truly terrible news. Such a beautiful country and people .

My prayers for the safety of you and your families go out to all of you in Nepal.

In my defence, I did explain -- at length -- where the figures come from. I later cited factors that would imply variation, like more OC-ers wanting visas. As the months go by, it's looking less and less likely we'll crack even 1500, but 'looking back to look forward' is even less compelling...

Thanks! Me too :)

Sure, I've done it a couple of times. Here's the most recent. I posted links to the sources of my numbers here. Bear in mind that I'm looking back to project forward. My predictions rely on two things: DV4ROGER's estimation of a quota of 831 visas for OC. Last year's rate of visas issued...

Simon: in your quasi-professional opinion, would you say this year's response rate is higher, lower or the same as last year's? I have a sneaking suspicion that it's quite a bit higher. This year we've had 307 visas issued in OC as of April 1. Last year we'd had 265 visas issued by April 2...

I got all my money out of Australia as soon as I could. You could say I'm bearish on the nation's outlook :) I went crazy long and moved it all into USD, as that's the only major currency backed by an improving economy at the moment. As for what I moved it into: a mixture of real estate...

With any luck!

I was estimating 1580. Do you think that's too ambitious?

Congratulations, Emily! Start of a new adventure.

Simon, back in January you predicted a final cutoff of 16XX for OC. In light of the current data, would you revise that prediction? I've done my own prediction (several times), but I'd be interested to see yours.

I'd say not in the past few years. The ratio of visas/cn has been fairly close. Remember 'current' only means 'we have enough for the rest', not 'we're opening the floodgates'. Simply put, the past two DV lotteries have been nothing but bad news and punctured hopes for a large number of...

I think we'll go to 1580 this year. Below 1400 makes one comfortably certain!

Sure, here you go: 1. Source of number of visas issued in each year: here 2. Source for 2014 max CN is at Britsimon's site, here. That data was extracted by a script that mines the Department of State's CEAC website. The highest called CN in 2014 was 1448 3. The 2013 max CN is trickier...

Nice graph! But those up-shooting tails at the end are an issue. We can't look for precedent in previous years going 'current'. The reason is that in 2013 and before, the number of selectees was low enough that there were visas for everyone. This is no longer the case. It's more instructive to...