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But how did you get 20,393 from the numbers above? 37,946 / 2 = 18,973 How did you get 20,393?

Just to clarify my case. I was born in Ukraine but my parents and I myself are Georgians. I am married to a Georgian girl and none of my parents was born in Ukraine. My father was there for military service and they were not residents. So I qualify for both chargeability cases. The main concern...

Yes, it was but except 10+2 there was also preparation class. Overall it took 11 years in both cases as I remember.

Yes, it is enough. 11 years of school education. In ex-USSR we had 11 years of education in secondary school. Either it was 1 - 11 grades or (0 preparation) + 1 - 10 years. The certificate of completion of secondary school it the one that is required in embassies. But there was also 9 years + 2...

Congratulations! Thanks for the statistics. So, do you have final predictions for visa availability this year by regions?

What is your CN, Roger?

Congratulations to all who has become current! Well, the rest of us will have quite nervous month. I think that predictions for EU now do not make sense as it can be both, stay as it is now or have a small increase. Good luck to everyone. Hope that we will pass.

I think I should. I also calculated how many of invited people received visas. It's about 76% But I agree. There is no big difference if you compare year to year using ceac.

This I understand. But then I think it is more correct to compare the growth from the beginning of the FY year by year. Otherwise it seems that we see 20% this year and suppose that this is because of ds260. But people get constantly married and children are born. So this should not be an...

Thanks, now I understand how you calculated it and everything seems reasonable. But how then it happens that in CEAC data in dv2014 the derivative rate was 2.22? Actually, comparing to previous year the derivative rate did not increase, but comparing to 40,000 winners / 21958 case numbers - yes...

The density has increased, it's correct, but I think that there is some small mistake in your calculations. You are comparing different data. You are comparing total cases of dv2014 wih only invited to co ones in 2015. It would be more correct to take final ceac for 2014 and compare invited...

Thanks for the clarification. My mistake.

I understand that the density is different in DV2014 and DV2015. But I think that if UU have problems with agents, then RR will be lower than in DV2014 and this will have bigger impact than density increase. Currently, comparing to previous year there are around 1,600 less members invited to CO...

Yes, language thing :) We are talking about the same. English is not my native language and sorry for mistakes ;)

If backlog is cleared, then CN will be within 40k. If UU have other type of problems than delays in DS260 (like problem with dvlottery agents), then UU will not receive as many visas as in dv2014 and their visas will be added to high CN owners in case the total number of visas issued in 2015...

In my opinion, this makes sense only if Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Poland, Bulgaria and Greece will catch-up and there will be no backlog. Otherwise my prediction is that final CN will be 42,000 or above if KCC intends to issue at least the same amount of visas this year as it did in 2014.

So, you think that cut-off will be less than it was in dv2014? Despite of Nigeria, despite of low RR?

Good points :) Sorry, I missed your previous post where you said that there will probably be increases in both bulletins for EU.

As I understand, you think that it is just a matter of time for these countries to catch up and these countries will not have impact on CN cut-offs? Ukraine - 883 visas less than in dv2014 so far Uzbekistan - 837 visas less Bulgaria - 761 Poland - 156 Greece - 121

This I understand but I did not make calculations for Africa. I also am not talking about general impact. Your analysis is detailed an comprehensive and it is difficult not to agree. My question is why there is such a big differences by countries in EU? May be some agents were shut down and...