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good comment, Simon! Do you think the high "no shows" in AF and, as a result, lower number of visa issuance in AF can slow down visa issuance and VB increase in EU or other regions to align visa issuance rate of all the regions with AF?

my predicted range for EU final cut off is 39-42k. as you can see there is some overlap in our predictions..

I think you should not lose your hope yet. wait until July 10 to see the final cut off.

I process all information in any form, which is unambiguous. Your question in posting 90 makes your predicted 40k not a specific amount. better to give a range than give vague ending, I think.

Blueraven, what is yr cn?

but what is your final EU cut off prediction? you gave your prediction only for the next VB.

I would prefer to do my prediction after seeing the coming 2nls hopefully on Tuesday..

EURO2014, I think it would be better to wait the new CEAC data to see the picture and to understand the situation. Hopefully, we will have it on Tuesday? Otherwise, everything is just a guess. They may have slowed down as they cleared 2.5 months' backlog cases, reaching to end of March -...

I am saying that the progress of the regions should be evaluated based on the number of visas issued as of now compared to quota for each region and and compared to last year's progress based on this you will see that the progress of EU is not much or is comparable to the other regions'...

i am presenting the fact that even less visas have been issued for eu as of now compared to last year. so yr simple cn comparisons of this and last year is not any informative. I have a cn in yr mentioned range. but i did not do any prediction. u just did it above and yr predicted range covered...

This is not a general statement, man. I mean do not compare bare CNs of this year with those of last year. CNshave many unknowns (density, response rate, approval rate etc.), whereas issued visas as of May of this and last year are certain figures. Also the quotas are more or less predictable...

you should look at the number of visas issued this year vs last year in combination with the visa quotas per region for this year vs last year. there are many factors, which result in the current CNs as of now (density, response rate, approval rate etc.) and we do not possess this info for the...

I think we should be positive, but be prepared for the worst. anyway, logically the backlog should be much less now than before, though no one knows..

no one can guess April late submissions, especially based on January-February submissions. furthermore, 2.5 months backlog should be less than on month's. You can think the worst possible way, the result is not going to change from that. all we will either pass or not. so better think...

On the other hand, if the last low VB increase was due to the clearance of the backlog and the latest VB submission, which has been cleared, was end of March, it means that the backlog has been reduced and for the next VB more CNs should go to the newly current cases. One month's backlog is...

I can't see the reason of your concern. The more later submitted forms have been process, the lesser backlog cases remain. I have read on Simon's blog that someone with end of March DS submission received 2nl. So the backlog is reducing

DV4ROGER, when do you think LPR flow data for FY 2014 will be published?

Sorry, I meant 76% approval rate..

ok. all in all 13.5k visas will give rise to 76% response rate up to July, which is ok percent compared to historical. It means after that there shouldn't be many APs left. right? As for the backlog cases, no one can know yet what will be the portion of backlog cases in the next VBs..

So EU visas to be issued in August September can vary from 3.2 to 4.1k even with somewhat overstated 15500 visas at the end of July.