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Right, 12152 is also assuming 100% response rate as I have mentioned with 2500 visas for ROA and 150 per thousand. Now you make asked what I did't run the number at 80% or 60% response rate? First, the current response rate 63% is a mix of Nepal + Iran+, at 9000+, there's very little or none...

My apologies guys as I've used the incorrect CN to issued ratio. Here's the revised numbers: For 2500 visa quota, with 1150/1060/700 left, it will stop at 12152,11745,10438 at 150/160/200 per thousand. We will need 1383/1360/1123 cases to fill 1150/1060/700 visas. For 2000 visa quota, with...

Let me see if I understand your calculation. If we look at the 1st 4300 case in 2015, we have 4057 cases, of which 536 are ROA, 851 Iran and 1181 Nepal (guessed based on consulate of course). Let's take your matured back log number of 150/160/200 per thousand. This is correct up to CN 9000...

I think you are 9xxx from Syria and if I am lucky, we will be called together in Aug. Regarding July, well, never say never. Just look that how they get over 3500 visas for 1 country on 2 counts...

Yes you did, but it's from another forum and I appreciate it. It was about obtaining a police cert from a foreign state, and I am glad that advise from you, Simon and Mom works out great for me. Let me add the twist and turn involved in getting some of the document is mind boggling and I suspect...

We should start a bloody silly camp for Asia, lol FSW and I are in the bloody silly camp, and you,Mom,Susie and many others are in the chilling in the US camp......mind if we join? lol Simon, yes, it's back in July 2014......and I started collecting documents to build a solid case after reading...

104XX from ROA..... And it's really amazing to see visa beyond 3500 for a single country. I have long believed 7% is the max. It seems even (3) below won't apply since it says "the total number of visas available under both subsections (a) and (b) of section 203 for a calendar quarter exceeds...

Mine is 104xx from ROA

Speaking of exceptions, we all know the max limit for each country is 7% of 50k visa which is the magical 3500 visas hard stop.That's the law....and thats why we know Nepal cannot go beyond that right? Take a look at Nepal for 2014...

That makes the 2 of us, as I recall Simon and SusieQQQ asking me to relax and stop worrying over nothing.And I believe they have good intention in saying that, it just gets a bit challenging when you are in thick of it. After all , we each face a unique set of situation. The truth is this...

Iran and exhausted? You mean they will see all Iran cases yet not enough visa are produced due to AP, correct? As you have mentioned, Iran cases will mostly exhaust by 8800. If you think July is around 69xx, let's assume Aug is the big jump again like last year. Knowing the capacity allows...

Right, and what I am trying to speculate is whether KCC will put a special cut off on Nepal in July instead of Aug if the case number is low enough for Nepal to max out around 7xxx and ROA and Iran is no where close to what's required to fill the quota.

Thanks for the explanation Simon. Doddle it is, indeed. I wonder how many of us Asian selectees realized this doodle we are in. Maybe it's just me , lol. As far as CN for Nepal goes, the 8900 of last year is like 76xx to 78xx in 2015 and 9500 of last year is like 8xxx in 2015. Now the question...

Thanks for your input Simon, Here's what I don't understand. I agree with you on the number of entries, but the number of selectees are fixed and published. For 2015, it's 4991 for Nepal and 4992 for Iran. Wouldn't you think the number of selectees have a more direct impact on density, rather...

It seems Asian applicants are not as active on this forum as last year (self included). Anyways, I hope we are not losing hope yet. Here's what I found interesting by comparing the number of visa issued / family members we've "burnt" through (any status but at NVC) Nepal is way ahead : we have...

Hm....that puzzled me further.If they are trying to group countries geographically for this report, then Macau should be under Asia despite the EU CN. Anyway, this shouldnt affect our prediction at all, just thought I missed something.

Hi Britsimon, Something I don't really understand. North America was calling up to 18 before going current and it shows they took 510 visa... That's fairly close to OC at 661.Maybe there very few cases with high number of derivatives or I am missing something. Did they regroup country to...

Oh wow, where are you from? I hope you are not from Nepal or Iran. You never know what going to happen this year, so I always consider ourselves lucky for being selected ( with some hope being called for interview ). Good Luck

I have 2 questions: 1) Which cut off CN number would you say is 100%, 80% and 50% safe for each region? By 50% I mean the CN got and 50% chance being called. 2) Do you think other region (other than NA) will get the slow down like AS in Dec? If so when wil it happen? I believe this is just a...

Right, everyone got the 2nl for that day will be asked to show up at 9am for example. The only thing would be there must have some sort of physical/ security limit of max people inside the building, but I don't think that will be caused by DV selectees. Mind if I ask which consulate call people...