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Up, by a lot I hope. As you have nicely sum up for us, we could be missing something all along.

Sure. The VB pace will be behind...... by behind, I mean behind last year. You see, thanks to the work of 2 other members, we have some extracts from 2014. At the beginning of each month, we have the number of visa issued. For example, last yr on Jun 3, we have 4419 visa issued. We have about...

I think you are right on the money. Just a side note, the family ratio between 5950-6850 is quite high, we have quite a bit of 3-7 members family.

To sum it up for ROA, I think we are facing 3 potential issueS Surge of backlog cases - at this point, it's unlikely (I know the in-transit file is a bit mess up, but I managed to run some calc) Increased Iran AP clearance - which has some impact, but not to the point to reduce the VB this much...

NaraLB, I meant to say this yesterday.....your post below makes a lot of sense to me, thank you.

The short answer is we don't know, yet. The real qus here is whether 5300 in 2016 is having the same chance as 5300 in 2015. That depends on case density ( such as 80 valid cases in every 100 CN range) and response rate (of those 80 cases, how many will proceed and when they choose to proceed)...

well, every year is different. In 2015, there are 125000 selectees, and the highest case is 19171. (2014 cut off for Aug is 12700 and Sept 13350) For 2016, there are 84000 selectees, so the max AS CN could be a lot lower too.

try double of what you got :(

Right, temporary resident is still a resident. When I say BNO or HKSAR passport, I mean his parent enters the UK on those alone without any visa. Note BNO holder can enter the uk up to 90 days without visas. If they are on work or student visa, that's a different story like Susie said. I just...

Somewhat high AS number, probably will get an interview in Aug. But it's great to know another Hong Konger........even if you are a UK citizen, I 'd like to see you as a "countryman", lol

To help determine if your parents are temp or not, the passport your parents used to enter UK to give birth to you would be a good gauge. Let's say they have HKSAR or BNO passport, they are temp for sure unless they have immigrant visa to the UK. You said they are not UK citizen, so that leaves...

Hey just read that you are another Hong Konger from another forum.....congrats....... All the best wishes from 1 Hong Konger to another.

Agree with Susie and Mom, it depends on where you are too and here's why: Let's say you live in the UK or Australia where living standard is pretty high compared to the rest of the world. If you have a decent job and manage to live there for some time, why would the CO doubt that you have...

You need to see why they need sufficient fund first, that is due to public charge. Public charge is beyond funds, it includes you family composition, work experience, health..... I134 may address some of the funding issue if it's deemed valid, but would not address the public charge in...

Hard to say. You can use this year as a reference, but with 84K selectee, that every year is different. Best to watch the VB and wait for the 1st CEAC data in the winter.

Don't say it isn't much... I count on you guys to help me through this process, and even if we don't agree with each other, we can for sure learn and benefit from another school of thought.

Haha, Susie, you know me from last year and thanks for the comforting thought. Like you said, probably worrying silly over nothing... just to be clear, I mean it when I say I appreciate all your input, nothing sarcastic at all.

Hey congrats, especially another Hong Konger. I am from Hong Kong too with a somewhat high number in 2015. Just a friendly reminder, the HK police cert takes 6-8 weeks according to their website. So judging from your number, you will get an interview in Oct unless you delay filing your DS260...

Not a problem Susie, and I appreciate your response. I am from ROA with a somewhat high number, so I trying very hard to be unbiased. Regarding the reminder, let's say folks filled it out late Jan, and the norm around that time is 2-3 months processing, it means the cases are ready for schedule...

That's exactly it, I am not sure if Nepal can hit max with the original 7600 range. The VO could very likely not limit Nepal and let it play out till 9100 where most Nepal cases are exhausted. The question remains how badly is Nepal impacted in terms of DV and can the VO jam everything within 2...