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WSJ: More people apply DV2012 at LAST DAY (Nov3) than First day (Oct5) !

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http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704804504575606580971555998.html

The annual lottery creates a buzz across the developing world. Applicants from Kenya to Khazakstan brave lines at Internet kiosks to fill out electronic entries. In the final hours of the month-long enrollment period, which this year closed Nov. 3, entries were rolling in at the rate of 62,000 an hour.

On an article from The Respectable Wall Street Journal,
we know that on the last day of DV 2012 entry at November 3'2010,
the entries are coming at the rate of 62,000 PER HOUR,
meaning 62,000 x 24 hour = almost 1.5 million entries.

Read the article and you clearly feel from the tone of the article that the last day of the
DV 2012 entry was the most busiest day because many people scramble to enter
their DV entries at the last day.

This mean the theory that say most applicant enter on the first day is NOT True,
otherwise, the article will mention the rate per hour on the first day.

on article they want you to see the highest number to give the reader a sense of
how many people want to get green card.
and on this one they use the last day rate per hour statistic instead of the first day.

Unfortunately, most of those people (if not all) who enter on the last day were most likely not selected...

Imagine if 15 million applicant try to enter their data at DV 2013 on the first day of the application period this year...
there are high chance that the server will crash...

so that is why KCC allow 1 month period for people to enter their entries.

but if this year KCC decide to ignore the obvious problem that most people selected
were from Oct 5,... that mean they will have problem on the DV2013.

of course the current winner don't care about the problem on DV2013 because
they are only want to protect their current winning status.

but KCC surely know about this problem,
and they can not afford to have the entire world bombarded their server with application on the first day
(actually first few seconds) after DV 2013 registration open...

and it's great to see the "technical difficulties" were still there,
that mean KCC have much bigger problem than just some server error.

the current winner of DV 2012 worry they might be revoke and blame others who complaint as sore loser,
but if they do not win this year, I am sure they will feel cheated and raise their concern too :)

everybody is protecting their own interest, can't not blame them,
but they also can not blame other who do not win because the flaw in the algorithm. :p
 
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Here is the complete article from The Wall Street Journal:


  • U.S. NEWS
  • NOVEMBER 22, 2010
Green-Card Lottery Record

15 Million Seek to Enter U.S. Through Program That Leaves It to Chance


By MIRIAM JORDAN

A record 15 million people around the world this year entered America's green-card lottery, an immigration program that offers a quick path to legal, permanent U.S. residence for 50,000 people a year—selected purely by the luck of the draw.
The so-called "diversity visa program" lottery drew nearly 25% more entries than last year, according to the State Department. The limit of 50,000 green-card recipients through the program was established years ago by Congress. Some lawmakers are now calling for an end to the program.

Here is a lottery that offers something priceless- a coveted U.S. green card. WSJ's Miriam Jordan reports on the Diversity Visa Program.

The annual lottery creates a buzz across the developing world. Applicants from Kenya to Khazakstan brave lines at Internet kiosks to fill out electronic entries. In the final hours of the month-long enrollment period, which this year closed Nov. 3, entries were rolling in at the rate of 62,000 an hour.
Recent winners already in the U.S. include cab drivers, professional athletes, Internet entrepreneurs and military personnel.
"I would never have started a company that created value in the United States if I hadn't won the lottery," said Adam Gries, a 29-year-old Israeli who runs an Internet start-up in San Francisco. "I would be creating companies in Israel."
Critics say the program poses security risks, lures uneducated immigrants and enables individuals with no connection to the U.S. to get into the country more quickly than those sponsored by relatives and employers.
"More and more people are learning about this program and are dumbfounded that we have it in the first place," said Rep. Bob Goodlatte (R., Va.), who has introduced legislation to abolish it. "Our chances have never been better to kill it," he added, following his party's successes in the midterm elections and amid high unemployment in the U.S.

Launched in 1990 to promote diversity in the immigrant population, the green-card lottery is now open to people from almost anywhere in the world, except countries that already boast a large number of nationals in the U.S., including Mexico, China, India and the Philippines. No special skills are required: A high-school diploma suffices. Lottery winners eventually qualify for U.S. citizenship.
The number of entries has been rising each year. This year's total is more than 2.5 times greater than five years ago, when the lottery attracted 5.5 million entries. Immigration scholars say possible reasons include the spread of Internet connectivity and increased awareness of the lottery, which costs nothing to enter.
"There is no faster way to get a green card to come to the United States," said Mark Jacobsen, an immigration lawyer. "The American dream is held out as a torch to the entire world."
In Africa and Asia, banners advertising the lottery festoon remote villages and teeming city alleys, where Internet cafes do brisk business helping applicants fill out entry forms, which must be completed online.
In flood-prone Bangladesh, "it seems everyone in the country knows about it," said Sandra Ingram, consular chief in Dhaka, who holds news conferences during lottery season.
After an electronic draw, about 100,000 applicants will be notified in May—twice as many as ultimately will be eligible to move to the U.S.—to undergo interviews, background checks and medical exams.
There is no cap on how many times the same person can enter the lottery—but no country can represent more than 7% of the total visas issued in a given year. For the fiscal year ended Sept. 30, 2009, nationals from Ethiopia, Egypt and Nigeria were the top recipients. This year, Bangladesh and Nigeria supplied the most entries.
Five years since arriving as a single man in San Diego, lottery winner Tsegaye Kedir of Ethiopia is married and a U.S. citizen preparing to attend college.
"I came because the U.S. has big opportunity for work, to get an education and to live a better life than in my country," said the 29-year-old, who drives a taxi.
Sandy Huffaker for The Wall Street Journal Tsegaye Kedir, originally from Ethiopia, is now a U.S. citizen after entering the country through the green-card lottery five years ago.

Zoltan Mesko, a rookie punter with the New England Patriots, came to the U.S. from Romania thanks to the program, after his family won a spot in the lottery when he was a child. Hundreds of winners have gone on to enlist in the U.S. armed forces.
Although the program accounts for a small percentage of the million or so legal immigrants who enter the U.S. each year, critics say it diverts scarce State Department resources from processing more important visa categories.
"It shows that the U.S. immigration system doesn't make sense," said Bernard Wolfsdorf, an immigration attorney. "We are allocating visas based on luck instead of knowledge."
Rep. Goodlatte of Virginia and others also voice concern that the program is inviting to terrorists, because people don't need to prove they have ties to the U.S. and are guaranteed permanent residency, which allows them to get almost any job—even handling explosives.
Hesham Mohammed Ali Hedayet, an Egyptian who killed two people at an El Al airline counter in Los Angeles in 2002, was able to remain in the U.S. after overstaying his visitor's visa because his wife won the green-card lottery.
The State Department said those who get in through the lottery are subjected to the same stringent security review as other visa applicants.
Margaret Stock, a retired West Point professor who studies immigration and defense, said terrorists wouldn't be stopped by abolishing the program. "The DV lottery is not any more susceptible to terrorism than other visa programs," Lt. Col. Stock said.
Egyptian-born Mohammed Atta, one of the hijackers in the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, entered the green-card lottery at least once, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. He never won a spot in the lottery, and eventually came to the U.S. on a business-visitor visa instead.
Fraud is another challenge. The fervor for a shot at the American Dream prompted one Bangladeshi man to submit 2,800 entries, the State Department said; just one entry per year is allowed. Fake marriages, between a winner and a stranger, are common, too.
But if an entrant is disqualified one year, he or she can still enter the next year.
"All is forgiven, it's a new lottery," said one U.S. official.

Write to Miriam Jordan at miriam.jordan@wsj.com
 
Sorry, but nothing in that article factually states that more people apply on last day than the first.. at all. Where are you getting that from?
 
lordmuggins said:
Sorry, but nothing in that article factually states that more people apply on last day than the first.. at all. Where are you getting that from?
Click to expand...

Your are perfectly right, that it did not stated that the last day have more applicant than the last day,
but when an article only mention the number of the last day, it should give you a clue :)

the article would use the rate of the first day if the rate of the first day is higher.

every article always want to give a sense of "importance" or "significant" of their report.

the most important thing to remember is,
if KCC do not do anything with the algorithm and correct this potential problem for DV2013,

this October on the first day of DV 2013 online registration,
well actually the first few seconds after they start DV 2013 registration,
tens of million of people will try to register at the same few seconds.

That will overwhelm KCC server similar to Denial of Service Attack !

KCC would not want this to happen :)

but of course the current winner do not care about this potential problem for upcoming DV2013:)

still, again KCC do care though,
cause it will still be their problem :)
 
I think you are misunderstanding how journalism works. The article seems to show that "on the last day, entries were still extremely high.. peaking at 65,000/hr". It is unlikely that it steadied at 65,000 for 24 hours.. that's how journalistic writing works. And, in showing the last day *not* the first, you're proving that something remains popular (if stating the first only, continued popularity is not shown).
 
lordmuggins said:
I think you are misunderstanding how journalism works. The article seems to show that "on the last day, entries were still extremely high.. peaking at 65,000/hr". It is unlikely that it steadied at 65,000 for 24 hours.. that's how journalistic writing works. And, in showing the last day *not* the first, you're proving that something remains popular (if stating the first only, continued popularity is not shown).
Click to expand...

Obviously you would see it differently than me on this one because we have different interest :)
You are current winner, and of course you do hope they will not re run the selection process :)
hey I can understand that, you are protecting your own interest.

but, it is also in the best interest for KCC to make sure that millions of people do NOT try
to register for DV2013 at the first few seconds after it open :)

The effect would be similar to the Denial of Service attack, but only much bigger than your ordinary Denial of Service Attack :)

KCC server would be overloaded when 10 million people try to register at the same few seconds :)

and from that point of view, I can see that KCC interest is INLINE with the people who want a re run of the selection process :)
 
This has nothing to do with me; it has to do with me understanding the English language and how it is written.

And please, I advise you to not continue threatening language towards the KCC; that is in your own interest.
 
lordmuggins said:
This has nothing to do with me; it has to do with me understanding the English language and how it is written.

And please, I advise you to not continue threatening language towards the KCC; that is in your own interest.
Click to expand...

I had never threaten KCC :) beside KCC themselves knew it is in their best interest not to lead everybody to try enter their
data at the first few seconds when DV 2013 start.

KCC already knew this fact.

People who register to DV Lottery do it via internet.
they read the internet, and they now know the algo give higher chance of winning to the first day registration.

naturally, everybody will try to enter their data on the first few seconds of DV 2013.
this is a natural respond :)

don't try to scare people :) it will not stop people from posting,...
but I can understand that you are nervous :) hahaha
 
lordmuggins said:
Added to ignore list.
Click to expand...

yap, you can NOT handle the truth :)

the truth is, KCC knew all the statistic, on how many people register on the first day or the last day.
the truth is, KCC knew the current algorithm have serious flaw because it choose MOST of the winning number from the first day of the registration.
the truth is, KCC fully realized that they had to fix this problem, otherwise,
19 million people will try to register their data on the first few seconds after the DV2013 lottery open,
and that would be equal to denial of service attack on MEGA SCALE ! and will crash KCC server for sure !

current DV 2012 winner of course do not care and ignore this potential problem.

KCC will not want this to happened,
so unlike you, KCC can NOT and will NOT "ignore" this problem.

:) hahaha
 
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In Excess, you are so ridiculous, I can't help but laugh when I read your posts (and I am doing that for the past couple of days). The idea of the forum is to help people, and you are not constructive. What is the thing with so many smilies and hahahas? You show symptoms of severe psychosis induced by DV lottery loss :). Seriously, stop littering the forum and seek medical help dude. And let the winners enjoy their moment.
 
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gorcvet said:
In Excess, you are so ridiculous, I can't help but laugh when I read your posts (and I am doing that for the past couple of days). The idea of the forum is to help people, and you are not constructive. What is the thing with so many smilies and hahahas? You show symptoms of severe psychosis induced by DV lottery loss :). Seriously, stop littering the forum and seek medical help dude. And let the winners enjoy their moment.
Click to expand...

Glad to make you laugh this past couple of days :)

enjoy while it last :)

my post might not help you (and the other 100,000 current winner) because our interest is not align,
but my post does align with the other 19 million DV participant who
lose because of the flawed algorithm.

and don't forget to enjoy this :
We are experiencing technical difficulties at this time.

hahaha :)

as i had said, KCC do understand that unless they tackle this algorithm error,
people will try to enter their data in the first few seconds they start the DV 2013 lottery.

19 million people submitting their entry within the first few seconds will crash KCC server.

KCC will NOT want this to happen :)

in this one my interest is perfectly align with KCC's interest :)

 
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Oh, it will last, have no doubt. Every year at this time, there are people like you who were not selected spreading rumors based on absolutely no evidence. The web site is down, so what. There can be many reasons for that which we don't know about, but you don't too.
I am sorry that you were not selected, but that is life. Maybe you'll have chance next year.
In the meantime, stop being mean, if you can't help otherwise.
 
gorcvet said:
Oh, it will last, have no doubt. Every year at this time, there are people like you who were not selected spreading rumors based on absolutely no evidence. The web site is down, so what. There can be many reasons for that which we don't know about, but you don't too.
I am sorry that you were not selected, but that is life. Maybe you'll have chance next year.
In the meantime, stop being mean, if you can't help otherwise.
Click to expand...

I had been following DV Lottery for the past few years.
in the past, I had never see/read anybody complain when they were not chosen,

This is the first year that the majority of people were selected because they apply on the first 2 days of registration.
that is why this is the first year people complain for the flaw in algorithm.

Show the link of any post from the past few years where people complain/upset for not winning DV Lottery :)

This is the first time ever and don't forget this warning :
We are experiencing technical difficulties at this time. :)

as I had said, I understand you just trying to protect your own interest :)

and when you said "help" that mean helping your own interest,
not helping the 19 million other people who are not selected simply because they do not enter their data on the first day of data entry :)
 
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but KCC surely know about this problem,
and they can not afford to have the entire world bombarded their server with application on the first day
(actually first few seconds) after DV 2013 registration open...
Click to expand...
You dont get it right? It was random that they obviously took the first two days of October. So next time the days can be different or the same or they select winners that apply at a certain day at 5:12:13 pm or whatever.
 
OMG. this is absolutely ridiculous. I don't understand why some people think that one winning is less eligible than other based on the date they filed. WE DIDN'T CHOOSE IT!!! it was the computer who did the choosing. on purpose or not, it's the fact.
And yes, article says nothing about how many people applied in the first day, it doesn't mean anythings. its an article!!! in a magazine!!!
And yes, i won. but i lost for 12 years. and i know the feeling. instead of being mean, just say CONGRANTS and move on. This is called to be a better person, not a bitter person.
 
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