Predict Cut off Numbers
- Thread starter Johnkent
- Start date
Sorry my friend, but I dont know how it could be helpful if people guess a number that is wrong, lately.
In a couple of days we see the real numbers
I wonder if the cut-off for Europe is higher than 7300
Thats why its called a prediction. And its funny thou that u predicted Europe to be somewhere around 7300.
U never know, u might be close
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Mihiranga, ur predictions could not have been any perfect.
Just curious to know your model?
we are same for asia???
yeah, u did a good job too.
suman619747
Registered Users (C)
october bulletin is out, now predict for december before the visa bulletin published
There is no need for predictions, the mathematics is simple. Add 1600 to the previous month, u get the next.
Previous month +1600 = New month cut off.
Nov = 6300
Dec = 7900
Jan = 9500
Feb = 11100........++1600.....
Applicable for Nigeria"s cut off only . I guess other countries follow the same logic.
CN 2008AF74XX
Previous month +1600 = New month cut off.
Nov = 6300
Dec = 7900
Jan = 9500
Feb = 11100........++1600.....
Applicable for Nigeria"s cut off only . I guess other countries follow the same logic.
CN 2008AF74XX
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Never!
EUROPE Oct 5800, Nov 9200, Dez 12600, Jan 16000 ... April CURRENT
NEVER!
My guess for next bulletin: EU 11400
My model
This is the model I used:
1) Determine the ratio between the cut-off numbers for November 2006 and October 2006
[ Nov06/Oct06 ]
2) To predict the cut-off number for November 2007, multiply the cut-off number for October 2007 by that ratio.
3) Round the result to the nearest multiple of hundred.
Predicted Nov07 cut-off = Oct07 * [ Nov06/Oct06 ]
Obviously this will not work every time. After all each year is different.
To predict the cut-off for December, I used the same model for Africa and Asia. For Europe, I tweaked and modified it to take in to account the fact that the rise in the cut-off was slower than what the model predicted.
Just curious to know your model?
we are same for asia???
This is the model I used:
1) Determine the ratio between the cut-off numbers for November 2006 and October 2006
[ Nov06/Oct06 ]
2) To predict the cut-off number for November 2007, multiply the cut-off number for October 2007 by that ratio.
3) Round the result to the nearest multiple of hundred.
Predicted Nov07 cut-off = Oct07 * [ Nov06/Oct06 ]
Obviously this will not work every time. After all each year is different.
To predict the cut-off for December, I used the same model for Africa and Asia. For Europe, I tweaked and modified it to take in to account the fact that the rise in the cut-off was slower than what the model predicted.
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Mihiranga,
How are you on the stock market? I could have done with some predictions there from you a about six months ago before my shares lost a fair bit of value in the recent stock mark turbulence
Alemitmee,
Hey thanks for the compliment!
But I'm afraid I don't know much about the stock market. Didn't even know there was terbulance in it recently.
Also I should say that the fact that my model predicted the November cut-off numbers has a lot to do with luck too.
Maybe I could get unlucky and go way off target with my prediction for December. So don't bet your money on it!
