US DoS: In 15 mins > Answering questions for DV2016 selectees!

[OnTheGo]

Any other hypotheses?

Not from me, haha. I have no freaking idea...thinking also that it would rather go down than up but really I can think of no reason why they would not just determine one flat figure for the draw each year based on how they coped with applications and managed max. visa takeup at the same time.
If and when they might deem a second draw necessary in any given year, I would have thought this makes sense to happen months after May 5, after they have in fact a better idea of how many people follow through with their application (by the number of DS forms coming through....but even then....many people with high CNs would not even send that in within the first few months).....so as I said....no freaking idea

 

[connectedspace]

My only theory is that KCC was swamped with DS260s last year, many of which had no chance at all of getting an interview. Processing those forms was, in the end, pointless work and a waste of time.

And since the rate of people following through on their opportunity was so high they may have reasoned that they could slash the number of selectees (and therefore their processing workload) by a third and still have more than enough.

But then Simon suggests that many of those processed forms become no-shows, so the 2016 number could fall well short of what they need.

That's about all I got. What's bothering me is why all the CNs are so low!

 

[MHammad2015]

My only theory is that KCC was swamped with DS260s last year, many of which had no chance at all of getting an interview. Processing those forms was, in the end, pointless work and a waste of time.

And since the rate of people following through on their opportunity was so high they may have reasoned that they could slash the number of selectees (and therefore their processing workload) by a third and still have more than enough.

But then Simon suggests that many of those processed forms become no-shows, so the 2016 number could fall well short of what they need.

That's about all I got. What's bothering me is why all the CNs are so low!

I have 5 friends who won the DV-2016 but they won't go through with it!

When I ask them "Why" they say "We only entered it as a game and we have no intention to leave our families (they are all single) and friends and go live alone" which provokes the living hell out of me.

They even offered to give me their "winning number" to use it instead, but as we all know KCC won't accept that (which bothers me too ) so yeah, many people apply even though they have no intention of going through just because it is FREE!

 

[SusieQQQ]

My only theory is that KCC was swamped with DS260s last year, many of which had no chance at all of getting an interview. Processing those forms was, in the end, pointless work and a waste of time.

And since the rate of people following through on their opportunity was so high they may have reasoned that they could slash the number of selectees (and therefore their processing workload) by a third and still have more than enough.

But then Simon suggests that many of those processed forms become no-shows, so the 2016 number could fall well short of what they need.

That's about all I got. What's bothering me is why all the CNs are so low!

Makes perfect sense that the numbers seem low with not much over half the number of selectees. But we know why they reduced the number of selectees - that's obvious based on the past couple of years - what's puzzling is why they don't seem to know the final number of selectees yet.
And yes many forms become no-shows, although Simons estimate of a second draw/reveal this year is more skeptical than mine.

 

[SusieQQQ]

I have 5 friends who won the DV-2016 but they won't go through with it!

When I ask them "Why" they say "We only entered it as a game and we have no intention to leave our families (they are all single) and friends and go live alone" which provokes the living hell out of me.

They even offered to give me their "winning number" to use it instead, but as we all know KCC won't accept that (which bothers me too ) so yeah, many people apply even though they have no intention of going through just because it is FREE!

But they know people do this and this is exactly one of the reasons why they draw so much more than 50k in the first place.... To console yourself, think that if they had drawn exactly 50k winners none of your friends would have been drawn anyway

 

[Azurite]

I have 5 friends who won the DV-2016 but they won't go through with it!

When I ask them "Why" they say "We only entered it as a game and we have no intention to leave our families (they are all single) and friends and go live alone" which provokes the living hell out of me.

They even offered to give me their "winning number" to use it instead, but as we all know KCC won't accept that (which bothers me too ) so yeah, many people apply even though they have no intention of going through just because it is FREE!

People do not take things seriously when they are free.
I really can't understand why they don't charge something for the entry , nothing excessive of course!
Just to make people think twice before applying.. It would ease their work and raise some cash.

 

[MHammad2015]

People do not take things seriously when they are free.
I really can't understand why they don't charge something for the entry , nothing excessive of course!
Just to make people think twice before applying.. It would ease their work and raise some cash.

Exactly I'm imagining if applying for the DV is for $500 for example.
I can assure you that the number of applications from the African region (which I am from) will drop to AT LEAST 50%.

Even when people here in my country hear about the DV lottery for the first time and know that it is free, they still hesitate to enter because the entire concept is not understandable here and pretty much agencies do the whole marketing and filling up for their part. One of my friends who won didn't even know about the time of checking out the result and when I told him, he said "What lottery?" and yet he won.

I know some people will disagree with me in the point of making the DV-lottery application not free, and I understand their perspective but that's how I see it especially in my region where people apply just for the sake of it. Yes, I also know that I sound bitter, which I am.

 

[usa_2016]

I have 5 friends who won the DV-2016 but they won't go through with it!

When I ask them "Why" they say "We only entered it as a game and we have no intention to leave our families (they are all single) and friends and go live alone" which provokes the living hell out of me.

They even offered to give me their "winning number" to use it instead, but as we all know KCC won't accept that (which bothers me too ) so yeah, many people apply even though they have no intention of going through just because it is FREE!

Very SAD to know these reports......

 

[Maisy]

People do not take things seriously when they are free.
I really can't understand why they don't charge something for the entry , nothing excessive of course!
Just to make people think twice before applying.. It would ease their work and raise some cash.

One of the reasons could be that they would like to stand out from scams.
Its free to enter the visa programme, however you pay at your interview, its not entirely free- makes more sense to me. Most scams charge fees upfront.

 

[OnTheGo]

...although Simons estimate of a second draw/reveal this year is more skeptical than mine.

Hey, Susie - could you explain to me how this works with second draws? Under what circumstances would they consider a second draw and at what point in time does this usually happen, going by past draws? For example, would they wait until half way through the processing period (starting Oct 1) to see how many DS-260 forms were returned to judge whether or not the risk is too high to not allocate all 50k visas? Would they draw another 10,000 people or what was the historic percentage of additional selections based on the initial number of selectees? (ex: 84,000 + 10,000 extra = 11.9%).
Where can I find some info on past 'second draws'? Thanks

 

[SusieQQQ]

Hey, Susie - could you explain to me how this works with second draws? Under what circumstances would they consider a second draw and at what point in time does this usually happen, going by past draws? For example, would they wait until half way through the processing period (starting Oct 1) to see how many DS-260 forms were returned to judge whether or not the risk is too high to not allocate all 50k visas? Would they draw another 10,000 people or what was the historic percentage of additional selections based on the initial number of selectees? (ex: 84,000 + 10,000 extra = 11.9%).
Where can I find some info on past 'second draws'? Thanks

Hard to say, info is scarce. It seems they do this if it looks like they might fall short of the 50k based on response and no-show rates. I am only aware of a couple of second draws, small (few thousand), around October. My thinking this time is simply that with 84k, a "normal" kind of DS respone and no show rate probably implies they fall short of 50k. However - they must have some numbers on which they are basing that 84k number so maybe response rates have risen...but still... It seems too low to get 50k visas from.

 

[Britsimon]

Hard to say, info is scarce. It seems they do this if it looks like they might fall short of the 50k based on response and no-show rates. I am only aware of a couple of second draws, small (few thousand), around October. My thinking this time is simply that with 84k, a "normal" kind of DS respone and no show rate probably implies they fall short of 50k. However - they must have some numbers on which they are basing that 84k number so maybe response rates have risen...but still... It seems too low to get 50k visas from.

I agree - 84K seems to low - so despite what the DoS rep said I think there will be a 2nd draw - but it won't be big and it could be region specific (which helps keep it smaller).

 

[OnTheGo]

I agree - 84K seems to low - so despite what the DoS rep said I think there will be a 2nd draw - but it won't be big and it could be region specific (which helps keep it smaller).

YES...make it EU region specific...uptake lower than elsewhere I believe, so they might as well draw another 10k from EU, more specifically GER

 

[Britsimon]

YES...make it EU region specific...uptake lower than elsewhere I believe, so they might as well draw another 10k from EU, more specifically GER

LOL - well region specific means small numbers - so 10k from Germany is a tad optimistic

 

[usa_2016]

YES...make it EU region specific...uptake lower than elsewhere I believe, so they might as well draw another 10k from EU, more specifically GER

That would be so good, and perhaps few for AF region (including my family's confirmation no. ) lol

 

[Pickles]

I cultivated a plant once but it didn't fluently speak English, possibly that's why it was not selected for the lottery.

Yep I was truly mortified at some of the comments! So ignorant and frankly if they think they have a hope in hell at getting let into the States with that attitude they've got another thing coming. No sense of handling themselves with grace and dignity at all....

 

[Pickles]

I saw a answer like that and added my two pence.....

actually this answer is even funnier than the one I saw.

Not a systems wide issue - yep - the not selected were correctly informed, just not one single winner.... system wide.... errrrr.....

Took the words out of my mouth. Ha ha ha.Funny how they dodged that one eh..?

 

[boo3]

Exactly I'm imagining if applying for the DV is for $500 for example.
I can assure you that the number of applications from the African region (which I am from) will drop to AT LEAST 50%.

Even when people here in my country hear about the DV lottery for the first time and know that it is free, they still hesitate to enter because the entire concept is not understandable here and pretty much agencies do the whole marketing and filling up for their part. One of my friends who won didn't even know about the time of checking out the result and when I told him, he said "What lottery?" and yet he won.

I know some people will disagree with me in the point of making the DV-lottery application not free, and I understand their perspective but that's how I see it especially in my region where people apply just for the sake of it. Yes, I also know that I sound bitter, which I am.

You got a point, they should setup a small fee with the dv lottery, it would filter out a lot of people who enter the lottery just for the fun of entering it and also the one who register everyone they know ....
They could use the collected money to pay for the selectees visa fees and better servers