Retrogression Math for Dummies - EB3 India Edition

[texancanadian]

Retrogression Math for Dummies - EB3 India Edition,

OK I know some ppl have really put a lot of time and efforts in predicting how bad retrogression is and when PD's will move etc, I have tried to understand the math at a basic level. I know my model is not very robust, but this is basic math I explain to my concerned friends, family members and work colleagues (mostly Americans) on why I still dont have a GC in hand even though I have filed since more than 5 yrs and why there is a good probability for me and my family to either wait years or move to Canada.

So here goes my "Retrogression Math for Dummies"

a) Total Visas allotted every year : 226,000 family and 140,000 employment based (However since family based visas for all categories and all countries have a cutoff and are retrogressed no chance of any visas flowing from family to employment category so we end up at 140,000 visas)

b) 7% limit per country on visas so total only 9,800 visas available to India. (EB1 and EB2 may get more visas from unused World category but since EB1 and EB2 India are themselves retrogressed, no additional visas will flow to EB3 India. Also since EB3 World is retrogressed no chance of extra visas from there either)

c) Out of 9,800 visas available for India only 28.6% are for EB3 and as stated above no chance to get visas from EB1 and EB2 because they are themselves retrogressed. So that comes to 2,803 visas for EB3 India per year.

d) Assuming each EB3 applicant has at least on average 1 dependent, now you have 1,400 individual labor applicants getting GC per year.

e) So for every quarter only 350 applicants are being issued GC. Or for every month only 115 EB3 India primary applicants are being issued GC.
Now I m not doing the math on how many EB3 India total LC applicants are there but at only 350 LC applicants being issued GC's during a quarter im sure we will be stuck for a while. Only relief in sight is

1) EB1 and EB2 India become current. (??????)
2) EB3 World becomes current ( not a chance in hell there)
3) New laws pass either increasing number of visas or allowing dependents not to be counted or both.

So is my reasoning essentially correct ? With 350 applicants being cleared each qtr no doubt there is retrogression.

 

[for_ac21]

good job on eb3 breakdown

Hi,

Good job on simple and easy to understand breakdown info.

-ac

 

[saras76]

Makes sense ...

Retrogression Math for Dummies - EB3 India Edition,

OK I know some ppl have really put a lot of time and efforts in predicting how bad retrogression is and when PD's will move etc, I have tried to understand the math at a basic level. I know my model is not very robust, but this is basic math I explain to my concerned friends, family members and work colleagues (mostly Americans) on why I still dont have a GC in hand even though I have filed since more than 5 yrs and why there is a good probability for me and my family to either wait years or move to Canada.

So here goes my "Retrogression Math for Dummies"

a) Total Visas allotted every year : 226,000 family and 140,000 employment based (However since family based visas for all categories and all countries have a cutoff and are retrogressed no chance of any visas flowing from family to employment category so we end up at 140,000 visas)

b) 7% limit per country on visas so total only 9,800 visas available to India. (EB1 and EB2 may get more visas from unused World category but since EB1 and EB2 India are themselves retrogressed, no additional visas will flow to EB3 India. Also since EB3 World is retrogressed no chance of extra visas from there either)

c) Out of 9,800 visas available for India only 28.6% are for EB3 and as stated above no chance to get visas from EB1 and EB2 because they are themselves retrogressed. So that comes to 2,803 visas for EB3 India per year.

d) Assuming each EB3 applicant has at least on average 1 dependent, now you have 1,400 individual labor applicants getting GC per year.

e) So for every quarter only 350 applicants are being issued GC. Or for every month only 115 EB3 India primary applicants are being issued GC.
Now I m not doing the math on how many EB3 India total LC applicants are there but at only 350 LC applicants being issued GC's during a quarter im sure we will be stuck for a while. Only relief in sight is

1) EB1 and EB2 India become current. (??????)
2) EB3 World becomes current ( not a chance in hell there)
3) New laws pass either increasing number of visas or allowing dependents not to be counted or both.

So is my reasoning essentially correct ? With 350 applicants being cleared each qtr no doubt there is retrogression.

texancanadian,

You are correct. The situation is really serious. With every category including EB1, EB2 and EB3 being retrogressed there just aren't visas left for India EB3.

The one thing I am certain about is that there aren't that many EB3 India from 2001 (non 245i) but because the projected demand is very high for India EB3 (this is based on traditional demand) the dates for India EB3 will get stuck in 2001 (April-May). This will probably not be out of demand but out of fear of large demand from 245i India EB3s. If you take 245is out of the picture then even with the few number of EB3 visas avaliable India EB3 can get out of 2001 but they will not move India EB3 out of 2001 because they are waiting on 245is to flood the system. That is my thought.

The bottom line is that we need this immigration bill with current provisions to pass into law. This needs to happen within the next 3 months otherwise it may take 2-3 years to just get out of 2001. We might as well just leave and go some place else in that case.

regards,

saras

 

[nTan]

350 LC applicants being issued GC's during a quarter im sure we will be stuck for a while. Only relief in sight is

1) EB1 and EB2 India become current. (??????)
2) EB3 World becomes current ( not a chance in hell there)
3) New laws pass either increasing number of visas or allowing dependents not to be counted or both.

Thats' correct ... and thats the reason we are in big soup.

Inceasing the visa number and giving more % to EB-3 and increasing the country quota will bring relief ... But to what extent.

If roughly say with all the change in laws, we can quadruple the the number of EB-3 per quater ... It would be 350 * 4 = 1400

Don't you think even this might a small number ... most probably it might be all taken up by substitution labor guys.


One question .. if dependent are not counted .. will it really help EB-3 India n .. there might be another limitation of country Quota that will kickin.

I see no reasonable formula that can be able to adjust so many 485 .. I wish they would give Amnesty to all...

 

[gcstrat]

Remember my pessimistic forecast

Guys and Gals

In my earlier threads, I had indicated a "pessimistic" forecast of about 11 years wait for EB3 to cross 2001.

Texancanadian - you have arrived at one part of that question.

Regards
GCStrat

 

[saras76]

Short-term vs long term ...

Thats' correct ... and thats the reason we are in big soup.

Inceasing the visa number and giving more % to EB-3 and increasing the country quota will bring relief ... But to what extent.

If roughly say with all the change in laws, we can quadruple the the number of EB-3 per quater ... It would be 350 * 4 = 1400

Don't you think even this might a small number ... most probably it might be all taken up by substitution labor guys.


One question .. if dependent are not counted .. will it really help EB-3 India n .. there might be another limitation of country Quota that will kickin.

I see no reasonable formula that can be able to adjust so many 485 .. I wish they would give Amnesty to all...

nTan,

Its time to face some hard truths. The immigration bill that is being discussed right now will not bring immediate relief to everyone. I think everyone with a 2001 PD will benefit from this bill. People in 2002 may also see some relief. However for people with PDs past 2002, the situation will not change that much in the immediate time after the bill is passed. It will take about 1-1.5 years for things to settle down and start to move relatively smoothly for 2003 and beyond PDs.

This bill will help solve the 245i problem and even that may take a year or so after the bill is passed. The other alternative is for no bill to pass and then 2001's wait for 3-5 years and the rest wait for 8-10 years.

regards,

saras76

 

[texancanadian]

Saras,
Ok, so if even if there are just 2,000 regular non 245 i cases and 5,000 245 i cases of primary applicants ( I do think the numbers in reality are much lager than these, after all you have 65 K new ppl at least coming on H1 with Indians at least 40-50% of those) you have say 7,000 total cases.
Even assuming this very low underestimate figure of 7,000 you are looking at 60 months or 5 yrs if we process at the rate of 115 per month. This is earth shattering and pretty much hard to believe but true.

nTAn,
I am not for amnesty because it will block the system worse than 245 i. I would say amnesty would really really suck for EB1 and EB2 folks because USCIS will devote resources to process 11 million plus amnesty cases and the whole infrastructure will come to a grinding halt. It will make this really worse. Yes you will be able to stay in US, but who wants to lead this semi nomadic and unsure life when you are getting older. Well Im going to reach mid thirties in a few months and now I want some stability in life. If Canada or Australia can provide that stability than great. If not go back to India. At some point in your life its just tiring to wait anymore.

 

[saras76]

We need a bill ...

Saras,
Ok, so if even if there are just 2,000 regular non 245 i cases and 5,000 245 i cases of primary applicants ( I do think the numbers in reality are much lager than these, after all you have 65 K new ppl at least coming on H1 with Indians at least 40-50% of those) you have say 7,000 total cases.
Even assuming this very low underestimate figure of 7,000 you are looking at 60 months or 5 yrs if we process at the rate of 115 per month. This is earth shattering and pretty much hard to believe but true.

texancanadian,

You are assuming that 5000 245i cases from India have made their way to the USCIS. Only recently have 245i cases started trickling into USCIS. As of now there aren't that many. However the DOS and USCIS is not moving the dates because they are waiting on 245is to pickup the pace. That is my thinking. I may be wrong here.

Anyway, what does it matter. We can sit here for years arguing about the worst case scenario. The only thing that can help is this immigration bill. If this bill fails then I will start liquidating my assests and will start moving my money out of here. I will continue to stay for maybe another year so I can get my house sold and all other things and then by the mid to late 2007 get the heck out of here. If I get lucky before then so be it but I will put the wheels in motion.

regards,

saras

 

[nTan]

I am not for amnesty because it will block the system worse than 245 i. I would say amnesty would really really suck for EB1 and EB2 folks because USCIS will devote resources to process 11 million plus amnesty cases and the whole infrastructure will come to a grinding halt.

May be not ..


As all the guys who are in the process ... most have there steps completed. I mean Biometrics, name check etc.

All new commers to this process will have to wait till they catch up. Meanwhile all the old cases pending might just clearup in a bulk.

I was in total understanding that Amnesty will never happen again.. But look at the rally today .. Something this big need to be addressed.
1> Give full Amnesty, with better boarder countrol.
2> Round every one and send them back.
3> Don't Ask and Don't tell policy.

The third may be most likely solution .. but it might leave some big security holes.

No 1 might become reality... The house and senate cannot go on debating without any solution for ever.