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Past & Present Oceania winners, How many times did it take for you to win the Lottery?(DV20XXOC....)

Past & Present Oceania winners, How many times did it take for you to win the Lottery?(DV20XXOC....)

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upbeatbean

upbeatbean

New Member
In the past, Did you enter as single or with your spouse? How about when you won?
TIA
 
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megdavidson26 said:
Entered the previous 6 years for both myself and my husband. Same as the year we were selected.
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congrats on getting selected at last. you must be thrilled. hope it goes well for you :D:D
I saw the comment about your age in the DV lottery thread
Mind if i ask why you didn't enter in the years prior to 2016?
 
upbeatbean said:
congrats on getting selected at last. you must be thrilled. hope it goes well for you :D:D
I saw the comment about your age in the DV lottery thread
Mind if i ask why you didn't enter in the years prior to 2016?
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We only started applying after we moved to the US. We are here due to my husbands specialty occupation.

Prior to 2016 we were living in many different countries. Personally I couldn’t see myself applying for immigration to a country without having been there and/or had a job secured (but that’s a personal decision based on our life circumstances).
 
megdavidson26 said:
We only started applying after we moved to the US. We are here due to my husbands specialty occupation.

Prior to 2016 we were living in many different countries. Personally I couldn’t see myself applying for immigration to a country without having been there and/or had a job secured (but that’s a personal decision based on our life circumstances).
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THANK you for the elaborate reply.

megdavidson26 said:
Entered the previous 6 years for both myself and my husband. Same as the year we were selected.
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this actually helped me get an idea myself. keeping my expectations low & sticking with my original plan
 
upbeatbean said:
THANK you for the elaborate reply.



this actually helped me get an idea myself. keeping my expectations low & sticking with my original plan
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Are you a current winner? Or just considering applying/have applied?

If you haven’t been selected yet, I wouldn’t even be thinking of a plan. The odds of being selected are something like 1 in every 200 years (I heard that stat on a YT video).

And even once you get selected, the process is not for the faint hearted. And it’s not a guarantee.

All you can do is apply and wait and see.
 
upbeatbean said:
even for oceania? i saw people in this forum & even @Britsimon say odds are good for oceania

not a current winner
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You'd have to ask him directly. I'm not sure if the odds change per region, I just know it really is the luck of the draw.

If you've entered for this year, then I wish you luck. Only a few more weeks until the results.
 
I think the probability in Oceania is way higher then the others regions. I have 4 close relatives who won. My mums older sister was the first i believe in 2007, 2 of my first cousins won, 1 of of them won it twice although both got rejected, my younger brother won 2012, and now my spouse is won for 2024.
 
F1j101 said:
I think the probability in Oceania is way higher then the others regions. I have 4 close relatives who won. My mums older sister was the first i believe in 2007, 2 of my first cousins won, 1 of of them won it twice although both got rejected, my younger brother won 2012, and now my spouse is won for 2024.
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That's super interesting. Are you from Fiji? It's very evident in 2024 of the huge increase in those numbers.

Do you know the reason why cousins got rejected?
 
upbeatbean said:
even for oceania? i saw people in this forum & even @Britsimon say odds are good for oceania

not a current winner
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The odds for OC are far higher than other regions - about 1 in 20.

I'm the person that expresses the odds (for other regions) as 1 in 200 years or similar. I express it that way to make the point it isn't a plan. In OC region the odds are so much better that it almost could be a plan (especially for a couple - each with an entry). If a couple both enter for 3 or 4 years they are pretty likely to get selected.
 
Britsimon said:
The odds for OC are far higher than other regions - about 1 in 20.

I'm the person that expresses the odds (for other regions) as 1 in 200 years or similar. I express it that way to make the point it isn't a plan. In OC region the odds are so much better that it almost could be a plan (especially for a couple - each with an entry). If a couple both enter for 3 or 4 years they are pretty likely to get selected.
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Caught in the "Gambler's fallacy" there @Britsimon :) :).

Theory states that, if the region's odds are 1 in 20 (as you put it above), then if someone enters for 3 or 4 years, their chances improve to a measly 1 in 20. If they enter for 1000 years (assuming that's possible), their chances improve to, wait for it...., 1 in 20!!!
 
Samusoni said:
Caught in the "Gambler's fallacy" there @Britsimon :) :).

Theory states that, if the region's odds are 1 in 20 (as you put it above), then if someone enters for 3 or 4 years, their chances improve to a measly 1 in 20. If they enter for 1000 years (assuming that's possible), their chances improve to, wait for it...., 1 in 20!!!
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@Samusoni - you are confidently incorrect. If the odds for a region were 1 in 20, then you are correct that for each individual year a person enters, they would have a 1 in 20 chance. But if a person plans to enter each year for the next 5 years, their likelihood of being selected over the course of five lotteries is greater than 1 in 20 (actually closer to 1 in 5).
 
Rainman246 said:
@Samusoni - you are confidently incorrect. If the odds for a region were 1 in 20, then you are correct that for each individual year a person enters, they would have a 1 in 20 chance. But if a person plans to enter each year for the next 5 years, their likelihood of being selected over the course of five lotteries is greater than 1 in 20 (actually closer to 1 in 5).
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I am certainly correct. I am glad we agree on the first part; successive entries are statistically independent events, so your chances in one year does not change your chances in another year! That was my whole argument. Now you you added a second twist to the question.

For your second part. I think your conclusion (1 in 5 over 5 years) is flawed, unless you explain your Math to me. Your conclusion seems to imply that if you enter 20 years in a row, your chances are (almost) 100% !!! Really :) :)

In the interest of not flooding the forum unnecessarily, you can come to my PM to continue the discussion...you can go mathematically deep as you want, I am likely to understand.
 
Rainman246 said:
@Samusoni - you are confidently incorrect. If the odds for a region were 1 in 20, then you are correct that for each individual year a person enters, they would have a 1 in 20 chance. But if a person plans to enter each year for the next 5 years, their likelihood of being selected over the course of five lotteries is greater than 1 in 20 (actually closer to 1 in 5).
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EDIT: Sorry, this forum does not seem to allow me to edit my own post above.

I now understand how you came up with a 1 to 5 chance. That does not, however, explain away my original point. If you have been applying for 4 years, and on the 5th year you apply again, you do not have better chances than someone who is applying for the first time, it's still 1 to 20. That's why I cited the gambler's fallacy. I don't understand the practical meaning of the 1 to 5 chances (over 5 years), except to say "if you do not enter, you don't win".
 
Samusoni said:
EDIT: Sorry, this forum does not seem to allow me to edit my own post above.

I now understand how you came up with a 1 to 5 chance. That does not, however, explain away my original point. If you have been applying for 4 years, and on the 5th year you apply again, you do not have better chances than someone who is applying for the first time, it's still 1 to 20. That's why I cited the gambler's fallacy. I don't understand the practical meaning of the 1 to 5 chances (over 5 years), except to say "if you do not enter, you don't win".
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Right, but when you responded to @Britsimon that he was "caught in the Gambler's fallacy", I think you may not have read his statement correctly. He stated the following, "in OC region the odds are so much better that it almost could be a plan (especially for a couple - each with an entry). If a couple both enter for 3 or 4 years they are pretty likely to get selected."

If the region's odds are 1 in 20. And you have two people entering (a couple) each year over the next 3-4 years, then the likelihood of one of them being selected in that timeframe is actually relatively high. As a result, it could be reasonable to treat the DV as a "plan" instead of as a "lottery". There is obviously a chance that no matter how often you enter, you simply do not win (as this is still a lottery).
 
Samusoni said:
Caught in the "Gambler's fallacy" there @Britsimon :) :).

Theory states that, if the region's odds are 1 in 20 (as you put it above), then if someone enters for 3 or 4 years, their chances improve to a measly 1 in 20. If they enter for 1000 years (assuming that's possible), their chances improve to, wait for it...., 1 in 20!!!
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Not at all caught in that fallacy at all, thanks.

Rainman has addressed the effect of taking planned set of entries, and also that I mentioned a couple entering (where each person "wins" if their partner wins. Note that I did not say winning was certain, I said likely - and statistically, with a set of entries for a couple, I am correct.

So in these days of AI this is pretty easy to answer.

I asked

1714312664215.png


Note - the probability of a *set of entries* is higher - slightly better than the 1 in 5 that Rainman suggested - and that is for the single entry.

Now for the couple:

1714312624576.png
 
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