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My very own Asian prediction for 2014

A

aset

Registered Users (C)
Well we have only few months left.
April - 5000-5500
May - 6000-6500
June - 7500-8000
July - 9000-10000
August - 11000-12000
September - 13,000-15000 maybe current. but I highly doubt
I would say it's the good case. We're 1 month behind from last year. I'm not expecting sudden jumps in cut off numbers.
My situation: I was an international student with F1 visa. I took a year off, came back to my country (not Nepal and Iran), won the lottery.
I am accepted to NYU for Fall 2014. The form DS230 is states an intent to immigrate which neglects with F1 conditions. If I don't get a green card I wont be able to get a student visa because I had an intent to immigrate.
I heard its very hard, nearly impossible to get any kind of visa to US if you get rejected on GC interview because of DS230 form
 
Pretty good predictions I would say.

Regarding the F1 visa. Yes you have shown immigrant intent BUT that does not mean you are automatically going to be refused an F1. If you are able to demonstrate to the CO that you have ties back home and intend to obey the rules, then that does not have to mean denial.

On the other hand your other point is that a refusal for the DV would ruin chances for any other visa - well that depends on the reason. If you were refused for something like failure to meet the education requirement then I don't see that would impact future applications at all. If on the othr hand you were found to have lied on the DV application and got refused for that reason, then yes I wouldn't be surprised if that created problems for other visa applications.

In any case, you have a good number so should be an LPR when you start at NYU. Good luck!
 
britsimon said:
Pretty good predictions I would say.

Regarding the F1 visa. Yes you have shown immigrant intent BUT that does not mean you are automatically going to be refused an F1. If you are able to demonstrate to the CO that you have ties back home and intend to obey the rules, then that does not have to mean denial.

On the other hand your other point is that a refusal for the DV would ruin chances for any other visa - well that depends on the reason. If you were refused for something like failure to meet the education requirement then I don't see that would impact future applications at all. If on the othr hand you were found to have lied on the DV application and got refused for that reason, then yes I wouldn't be surprised if that created problems for other visa applications.

In any case, you have a good number so should be an LPR when you start at NYU. Good luck!
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its wonderful guss from you sweety ,where u from ?
 
what kind of prediction is it really i could not understand it do u mean to say maximum and minimum?
aset said:
Well we have only few months left.
April - 5000-5500
May - 6000-6500
June - 7500-8000
July - 9000-10000
August - 11000-12000
September - 13,000-15000 maybe current. but I highly doubt
I would say it's the good case. We're 1 month behind from last year. I'm not expecting sudden jumps in cut off numbers.
My situation: I was an international student with F1 visa. I took a year off, came back to my country (not Nepal and Iran), won the lottery.
I am accepted to NYU for Fall 2014. The form DS230 is states an intent to immigrate which neglects with F1 conditions. If I don't get a green card I wont be able to get a student visa because I had an intent to immigrate.
I heard its very hard, nearly impossible to get any kind of visa to US if you get rejected on GC interview because of DS230 form
Click to expand...
 
is my vae number safe?

by this prediction it seems were just one month behind last year but as simons predictions for march happened at its lowest side...is it possible that again they just progress 600 cn for asia? my cn is around 7600../asia. i was expecting it to be current on june but this year seems different..simon..please tell me what you think about asia. following months..and why it has been slower this year..is my cn dangerous?
 
manamilad said:
by this prediction it seems were just one month behind last year but as simons predictions for march happened at its lowest side...is it possible that again they just progress 600 cn for asia? my cn is around 7600../asia. i was expecting it to be current on june but this year seems different..simon..please tell me what you think about asia. following months..and why it has been slower this year..is my cn dangerous?
Click to expand...

As I said above, I believe the predictions from aset (the OP) are pretty good although the longer range predictions are obviously less reliable than near term predictions. So your number is safe and should be current in May or June (most likely June). Iran and Nepal have been clogging up Asia this year, with those two countries taking up around 80% of the early interviews. Once those countries hit either special cutoffs or 7% limits, the rest of Asia will speed up.
 
The vb cutoff for AS region for this fiscal year for the month of march is nearly coincide with the year 2007:
2007 2014
1550 1800 oct
2600 2500 nov
3500 2650 dec
3800 3000 jan
3800 3700 feb
4450 4325 mar
5125 Apr
5825 may
6800 june
7750 july
current aug
current sep
How can we predict for aug n sep from this equation?
 
supreme dhakal said:
The vb cutoff for AS region for this fiscal year for the month of march is nearly coincide with the year 2007:
2007 2014
1550 1800 oct
2600 2500 nov
3500 2650 dec
3800 3000 jan
3800 3700 feb
4450 4325 mar
5125 Apr
5825 may
6800 june
7750 july
current aug
current sep
How can we predict for aug n sep from this equation?
Click to expand...

In my opinion,August and september were the months where everybody who were notified as lets say first letter and who returned forms to kcc were called for interview.
 
oskarson said:
In my opinion,August and september were the months where everybody who were notified as lets say first letter and who returned forms to kcc were called for interview.
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No, you cannot used DV-2007 as a comparison because the entries is different and country eligibility also different. In fact the closest you can use is DV13 because there have the same countries participated as DV14 but the only different is that it has more selectees in DV14 and 2 countries (Iran and Nepal) have dominated the low case #. In DV13, the distribution are more even than DV14. So, it very much depends on how Iran and Nepal selectees distributed. If based on what we know so far, Iran selectees are 90% below 9k then we might see a special cut off for Iran if not Asia will not be able to fulfill its quota. Nepal did has some selectees in 22k, so we can gradually reduce the selectees from 9k to 22k. So that make Nepal hit their country limit around 12-13k. If those assumption is correct then you will see the first jump from 4k to 9k in 1 or 2 months time and then it will slow down from 9k to 14k (if Nepal still don't hit its country limit or no special cut off for Nepal), after that it will speed up again toward the end of fiscal year. The faster the Iran special cut off the faster the Asia progress, so let wait and see when it will happen.
 
Case Range Count
0-2000 3
2000-3000 5
3000-4000 9
4000-5000 5
5000-6000 6
6000-7000 9
7000-8000 1
8000-9000 7
9000-10000 13
10000-11000 4
11000-12000 8
12000-13000 17
13000-14000 14
15000-16000 1
Grand Total 102 ok this is the data of our group as u have asked i provided they are real id we had also a get-together programm between all so they are real people before we did know less but now through fb we became good friend.. so please donot ask iy is real or not anyone again i donot want to discuss about its real or fake if u believe me then believe in this data too
 
Rayme said:
Case Range Count
0-2000 3
2000-3000 5
3000-4000 9
4000-5000 5
5000-6000 6
6000-7000 9
7000-8000 1
8000-9000 7
9000-10000 13
10000-11000 4
11000-12000 8
12000-13000 17
13000-14000 14
15000-16000 1
Grand Total 102 ok this is the data of our group as u have asked i provided they are real id we had also a get-together programm between all so they are real people before we did know less but now through fb we became good friend.. so please donot ask iy is real or not anyone again i donot want to discuss about its real or fake if u believe me then believe in this data too
Click to expand...

The max is 15k? If that is the case it looks like Nepal might hit the country limit by 10-12k range. If the take up rate is lower in range of 4k to 9k then it might push the max case the hit the limit higher.
 
kayend said:
The max is 15k? If that is the case it looks like Nepal might hit the country limit by 10-12k range. If the take up rate is lower in range of 4k to 9k then it might push the max case the hit the limit higher.
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Actually the highest case number encountered till now is 23K and this has been confirmed by a facebook member that the number is very genuine and he knows the person personally...besides this there are reports of 16k, 17K but could not be confirmed.
 
this data is not actually complete we have cases like 16k 19k 18k and 22k too but that region is very spreaded so the reason upto which cases are densed i had included that region only
dolopar said:
Actually the highest case number encountered till now is 23K and this has been confirmed by a facebook member that the number is very genuine and he knows the person personally...besides this there are reports of 16k, 17K but could not be confirmed.
Click to expand...
 
Rayme said:
this data is not actually complete we have cases like 16k 19k 18k and 22k too but that region is very spreaded so the reason upto which cases are densed i had included that region only
Click to expand...

Well, if we have big numbers on 15k to 22k then it might push the max case # for Nepal to be higher, if it just have 2-3 sample data for each thousand from 15k to 22k, it might be Nepal case # start to slow down after 14k and that might mean those selectees is in the last thousand of selectees which is the risky range for Nepalis. Remember in DV13, Nepal has around 4.6k selectees and 3.3k visa issued. So, I have good reason to believe that the last thousand selectees are in the risky range (assume the same take up and success rate same as DV13).
 
iam not any DV expert nor I am any pundit on the matter still I am with this group from from some months so my till now understanding about this matter Iam going to explain what i have learn till now about DV .
Q.N1) slow progress till now?
ANS: actually slow progress in early months is highly expected as its not conform in earlier months that what will be the response of the people about sending there form as many of us here too have send our files late in july also and as the processing of documents required enough time so in first half its slower... but still the matter of worry is even now it is not getting pace as we have thought and the reasons are very clear as we many from here also had seen ceac data till now and what we have seen is case numbers are densly packed and holes are very low so due to which we didnot see any jump till now..
Q.n2) till when can we see good jump?
It depends also on the holes present in between the group but a good news in this is in latter half of DV fiscal year they try to use their optimum resources and interview number is increased but still number of holes till now is very low in compare to last year and the result its lagging a month less to last year... even with so highly pack cases KCC can still manages increase of 1200 to 1300 per month even 1500 but in the same condition it will never goes above the 1500..
Q.N.3) what should high cases do which case is termed safe which is risky ?
I have both good news and bad news in this lets start with good... last year we Nepali had 4370 slectee and as we all know that fair number of people do marry and proceed so this will increase the number of selectee by some number due to addition of newly married cases and also new born babies too add to the selectee number so lets say this all added to give 5000 selectee last year we all know all got interview ceac data says 3217 got visa and about 300 got rejected so this add to 3517 still this are 1500 missing people so where are they??????????? simple answer is all people who got first letter do not responds and all selectee doesnot get first letter because initially selected people are disqualified on rechecking which is called as holes so holes exists and this 1500 made holes last year as even kcc says Nepal has suceess rate of 80-90% so this year too many like this had been holes... so without knowing this donot worry guys..
bad news:6082 selectee is the first bad news in compare to last year 1700 increase and be clear that maximum visa Nepal can get is 3800 so guys some will be missing from us and this really hurts on the journey to edge and missing finally but no one knows how many will miss because we donot know how many cases are holes this year... and keep in mind 4320 lead to 3200 visa so with 6082 it will easily cross 3800 visa so lets see upto where it goes
so now which cases are safe and which are risky.. very very tricky question this is because till now no any case is safe how?????? lets see even my case 9620 is not safe because safe and unsafe depends on the fact that how many people are behind u.....now how about 13520 is safe or not???? we cannot say because if the visa is not filled and many are behind it then it is too safe case ......condition this year will be like 15201 will get interview and visa and might be 15202 will not as the quota is filled by then...so really no one even KCC lady now donot know what is safe and risky it all depends how many people are behind your case and how many holes infront of ur case..
 
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