Logic/fairness of rank numbers vs. date of submitting initial documents ???

[OnTheGo]

Hey All -

After initially being totally confused about "case number" / "rank order number" etc..., I read up on the DOS website and forum posts.

What I STILL don't understand is the LOGIC behind the system of "ranking"....

It says for instance:
"...showing the beneficiary's geographic region and rank order number related to immigrant visa availability, foreign state chargeability, consular post designation .."

...and:

"Once the DOS Visa Bulletin indicates a visa is available for the individual's regional rank order case number, the KCC will set an appointment for the DV applicant(s) at the designated consulate.."

So what I find confusing about this is two-fold:

1. The lottery is supposed to give equal chances, yet the selection for further processing then does not depend on the speed of lodging all required paperwork and the fulfilment of all visa requirements, but first and foremost on the computer generated rank number given to each individual!

2. So, I wonder: If a great number of lower rank numbers do not actually file within the first month, second, month etc...how does this affect applicants with higher rank numbers who actually submitted early and subsequently became "documentarily qualified" (initial paperwork approved by KCC)? Isn't it unfair that those out of the pool of 125,000 worldwide winners who submit early but just because they happen to have been given a higher rank number will be put aside, while those with lower case numbers (rank order numbers) can be rather relaxed about it all and submit with months delay and STILL get their interview 6 to 9 months earlier than those aforementioned applicants?

 

[SusieQQQ]

Yes it's "unfair", but people who weren't selected at all think it is even more unfair ... They had to choose some system, this is it. Someone in a country that takes a long time to get mail to the US might say it is unfair that someone closer/with a better postal service would get a better chance to get their forms in earlier because of that... No system is going to be perfectly fair to everyone involved.

Anyway, nowhere does it say that the lottery is designed to give "equal chance", does it? At least, I don't remember seeing that anywhere. I don't see how they could say that when they say upfront that visa numbers could be exhausted before everyone gets one.

 

[OnTheGo]

Those not even selected have no basis for claiming it wasn't fair, so they are out..
My thoughts were more along the lines of those with low rank numbers coming late to the party but still getting preferred treatment

I still wonder (re: Q2) how they work the cases as they come in ...

Say the cut off was similar to last year (for EU):
5,700 in Oct 2013
7,000 in Nov 2013
9,250 in Dec 2013
10,950 in Jan 2014
13,400 in Feb 2014
16,200 in Mar 2014
22,850 in Apr 2014
27,500 in May 2014
31,000 in Jun 2014

What happens if they receive say 10,000 applications by Oct 2013, but only 4,000 of those have rank numbers below the 5,700? How do they determine in each month which case will be next when the applications within the cut offs have not been exhausted yet?

 

[SusieQQQ]

Those not even selected have no basis for claiming it wasn't fair, so they are out..
My thoughts were more along the lines of those with low rank numbers coming late to the party but still getting preferred treatment

I still wonder (re: Q2) how they work the cases as they come in ...

Say the cut off was similar to last year (for EU):
5,700 in Oct 2013
7,000 in Nov 2013
9,250 in Dec 2013
10,950 in Jan 2014
13,400 in Feb 2014
16,200 in Mar 2014
22,850 in Apr 2014
27,500 in May 2014
31,000 in Jun 2014

What happens if they receive say 10,000 applications by Oct 2013, but only 4,000 of those have rank numbers below the 5,700? How do they determine in each month which case will be next when the applications within the cut offs have not been exhausted yet?

One of the reasons (possibly the main reason) they ask people to send applications in early is so that they have an idea of how many people are taking up the opportunity for interview (obviously, there is some physical limit of interviews they can do in a month). As I understand it, the number of say 5700 is not plucked from thin air - it is worked out according to the number of applications they have. If they only have 4000 applications ready but they've given numbers up to 5700, then one has to assume that they have capacity for 4000 (probably +x% depending on past history for tardy applicants) and those are the rank numbers up to which they have completed applications for, for the capacity of 4000. I hope I'm explaining my thinking clearly enough. In other words, they don't have every number's application in, but they have 4000 applications in which go in order up to 5700.

The 2nd NL notes that your file has been sent to the local embassy, so I'm not actually sure what happens in the case of someone who's number is current but hasn't sent their forms in - if they get a notification telling them to send their forms to KCC, or if they only get their 2nd NL once they've done that - maybe if someone reading this has been in that situation they can tell us.

 

[NuvF]

The initial winner selection (~110k of them) in the 'lottery pick' (region wise) is based on pure LUCK where basic stats/probability comes into play.
Later the 'real winners' are evaluated/selected and issued DVs on the merit of a formal application/fees they make per the guidelines of INA, just simple as that.

Now, re, CNs....those too are allocated (imo) to reflect the LUCK of the winners.

Theoretically, each winner from a region DID NOT have an equal chance.
Imagine, the 1st winner from a regional 'pot' had HIGHER ODDS of being the winner, say as compared to the 20k th winner! ('cos the pot was then LESS by ~19k applications)
So, it is only naturally fair that the ones who are selected first are allocated lower CNs to have a higher shot at a DV....nothing less, nothing more!!

Best!

 

[aos13]

It's fair to have a "line order", it would be unfair otherwise. The order is totally random so everybody does have equal chance of getting a high CN or low CN. When you win powerball, you don't cry about sharing it with four other people, do you?

 

[chinny]

need ur candid advice n help

my wife won 2014 dv,we are from Nigeria.she actually applied with her maiden name but since dn we are married. submitted our forms on 9th may 2013 awaiting KCC confirmation.plz will she obtain international passport wt my name (husband) or her maiden name. and her case no is 2014AF00013xxxxxx wn do u tink we cn get our interview.tnks

 

[SusieQQQ]

my wife won 2014 dv,we are from Nigeria.she actually applied with her maiden name but since dn we are married. submitted our forms on 9th may 2013 awaiting KCC confirmation.plz will she obtain international passport wt my name (husband) or her maiden name. and her case no is 2014AF00013xxxxxx wn do u tink we cn get our interview.tnks

This is off the topic of this thread but I'll answer anyway. I presume when she sent the forms for both of you she put her married name on the forms and submitted a marriage certificate? And yes she must get the passport in her married name otherwise it will instantly raise suspicions that the marriage isn't real. Also, I am pretty sure you have far too many xx's in your number ... Is it a 1300, a 13000 or a 130000 (do they even go that high for AF this year?) The first two will have interviews quite early, a 1300 almost certainly in October, a 13000 probably Nov-Dec, a 130000 (if such exists) very late in the fiscal year if at all.

 

[OnTheGo]

It's fair to have a "line order", it would be unfair otherwise. The order is totally random so everybody does have equal chance of getting a high CN or low CN. When you win powerball, you don't cry about sharing it with four other people, do you?

I actually do agree with this. But I also think that the privilege of a rank number that would allow early processing should be forfeited if the candidate does not submit within a reasonable time, to be fair to all the other people with higher rank numbers who did in fact submit early. I guess this is partially reflected in the incremental increase in cut offs, but say someone with a rank number 500 has the chance to get in the first month (Oct), yet submits in April of the following year (i.e. 6 months later), provided there are still enough visas for their region, they will still get preference over those that submitted all their forms 11 months earlier (i.e. May 2013). It's all good, just trying to understand the system

 

[OnTheGo]

Thanks for the replies, NuvF and SusieQQQ

 

[chinny]

This is off the topic of this thread but I'll answer anyway. I presume when she sent the forms for both of you she put her married name on the forms and submitted a marriage certificate? And yes she must get the passport in her married name otherwise it will instantly raise suspicions that the marriage isn't real. Also, I am pretty sure you have far too many xx's in your number ... Is it a 1300, a 13000 or a 130000 (do they even go that high for AF this year?) The first two will have interviews quite early, a 1300 almost certainly in October, a 13000 probably Nov-Dec, a 130000 (if such exists) very late in the fiscal year if at all.

tnka alot,but she actualy applied wt her maiden name bt now bears my name,wht shld i do plzzz

 

[OnTheGo]

tnka alot,but she actualy applied wt her maiden name bt now bears my name,wht shld i do plzzz

Please move your post to another thread or open your own, as your question is off topic.
SusieQQQ was kind enough to give you a reply, but please don't derail my thread which has nothing in common with your questions.
Besides, you already posted the same question to another thread!
Thank you and good luck

 

[SusieQQQ]

I actually do agree with this. But I also think that the privilege of a rank number that would allow early processing should be forfeited if the candidate does not submit within a reasonable time, to be fair to all the other people with higher rank numbers who did in fact submit early. I guess this is partially reflected in the incremental increase in cut offs, but say someone with a rank number 500 has the chance to get in the first month (Oct), yet submits in April of the following year (i.e. 6 months later), provided there are still enough visas for their region, they will still get preference over those that submitted all their forms 11 months earlier (i.e. May 2013). It's all good, just trying to understand the system

I see what you're saying, but from a logistical perspective I think that would complicate things a lot for KCC. They would have to have a whole ancillary system in place to figure out a secondary pecking order, based on CNs and how many others submitted earlier and how much earlier, etc. Also, I'm not sure how much positive effect this would really have on those with higher numbers, because you're still not going to get an interview before your number is current, and as I said before it seems the progression of numbers in the visa bulletin is based on the number of completed applications they have anyway. So people who haven't sent theirs in are actually helping those with higher numbers get interviews earlier. For example, to use an extreme example, if you are number 20000, and only 200 people have sent in applications by August, you could go current in October anyway.

 

[chinny]

This is off the topic of this thread but I'll answer anyway. I presume when she sent the forms for both of you she put her married name on the forms and submitted a marriage certificate? And yes she must get the passport in her married name otherwise it will instantly raise suspicions that the marriage isn't real. Also, I am pretty sure you have far too many xx's in your number ... Is it a 1300, a 13000 or a 130000 (do they even go that high for AF this year?) The first two will have interviews quite early, a 1300 almost certainly in October, a 13000 probably Nov-Dec, a 130000 (if such exists) very late in the fiscal year if at all.

tnks alot,its actually 13000 nt 130000,jst hope it will be current dn.she actually submitted d form wth her maiden name nt her married name bc wea she is wrking,she cnt do change of name unless she have stayed upto 2yrs dea,and her 2yrs is july 2013,so all her documents still bears her maiden name,so am confused whether to use married name after change of name dis july or use d maiden name dt it is in d letter to obtain her international passport