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DV14 Asia Prediction - Discussion (Using CEAC data)

I think the rule of lower case # will get their visa first doesn't apply for AP cases because they cannot hold on a visa slots due to uncertainty. So I believe once a case # become AP it no longer follows the rule of lower case # take the visa slot first instead they will go by whichever AP cases get clear first will get the visa slot even the one get cleared has a higher case #.

DOS somehow made FBI process AP cases by the end of year end - almost instantly. If DOS wants FBI to process them earlier, I do not see any major factor preventing DOS from influencing FBI earlier than the end of fiscal year. In DV-13 they did not need it earlier, but in case they need it earlier, what is the problem to have it earlier?
 
DOS somehow made FBI process AP cases by the end of year end - almost instantly. If DOS wants FBI to process them earlier, I do not see any major factor preventing DOS from influencing FBI earlier than the end of fiscal year. In DV-13 they did not need it earlier, but in case they need it earlier, what is the problem to have it earlier?

I don't know so fast they can clear the AP cases, what I understand from Ankara US Embassy web site it mentioned it need 3 to 6 months to clear for AP cases. I just based on that info to make my point.
 
7% per country limit, like Iran in DV-13. Iran did not have special cutoff, but hit this limit. Some other countries had special cutoff, but did not hit the limit

I know there is country limit and that is not the same as country quota. So if not country quota then it will get from the regional pool. If that is the case, then Iran AP cases will need to compete from the same pool from others.
 
I know there is country limit and that is not the same as country quota. So if not country quota then it will get from the regional pool. If that is the case, then Iran AP cases will need to compete from the same pool from others.

Not much has changed since last year. If Iran could exhaust all their visas last year, it will be able to do again this year.
 
Not much has changed since last year. If Iran could exhaust all their visas last year, it will be able to do again this year.

The changed is more selectees in DV14. Especially the rest of Asia so the timing is crucial of getting visa in DV14 compare to DV13. In DV13, all visa issued for Asia toward the end of fiscal year so as long as the AP cases get clear before the fiscal year it will get the visa because no one else are competing with it since DV13 already current.
 
ravesky believe me that 22k exist in Nepal and its a nepali people unmarried born in Nepal and applied from Nepal and another intresting point is Nepali case are scattered like 16k,19k,15k all range of case numbers are present in Nepal..
It would be very interesting to get more data about that Nepalese. The points I am interested in are:
- whether he was really born in Nepal
- whether he mentioned the country he was going to participate from in the entry as Nepal
- whether his country of his permenent living is Nepal.


I expect numbers that high could appear if he was born in Nepal but was participating from another country (by spouse or parent) or if he was born in Nepal but lives outside of Nepal
Anyway, the amount of people with Nepalese numbers that high is very low - that is what I believe.
 
ya kayend in right in this point in compare to last year iran AP cases got cleared fast at latter months because of lack of cases competing with them but this year with so much selectee i see AP cases will find hard to get clear so this may change the statistics of visa issue of iran in compare to last year
I know there is country limit and that is not the same as country quota. So if not country quota then it will get from the regional pool. If that is the case, then Iran AP cases will need to compete from the same pool from others.
 
ravesky believe me that 22k exist in Nepal and its a nepali people unmarried born in Nepal and applied from Nepal and another intresting point is Nepali case are scattered like 16k,19k,15k all range of case numbers are present in Nepal..
dv-13 ceac data shows kiev consulate numbers above 15000, up to 30000, there are totally about 40 of them. While there are definitely more than 1500 of them under 15000. So that is not impossible. However, the amount of those numbers should be really small.
 
dv-13 ceac data shows kiev consulate numbers above 15000, up to 30000, there are totally about 40 of them. While there are definitely more than 1500 of them under 15000. So that is not impossible. However, the amount of those numbers should be really small.

Sorry Raevsky, how can you use other country data and apply to Nepal distribution? Selection is random and I do not rule out the possibility of having the same pattern as Kiev but it is just one of the possibilities. Unless you tell me there is an algorithm that it used in the selection software that smart enough to distribute the case # evenly for country have close to 6k selectees. You did mentioned about using CDF in the software for selection, if that is the case then whichever countries used CDF should be in special cut off to make sure the system is fair system.
 
What about changing the marital status from single to married while appearing on interview?

I have replied just now by PM of what you need to do. However, you need to hurry up. If your 2NL comes through with just you listed for interview then you may not even be able to enter the embassy with your spouse as she won't be listed as someone to appear. That can be sorted out, but it will take time and your number is quite close to being current and I think you are not yet married from your PMs. So - take heed of what I have said in the PMs (even the warnings) and then hurry up with whatever you decide to do!
 
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