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DV13 AS - How Many Potential Visas within a given Case Number Range??

enchevetrement

Registered Users (C)
Hi All,

I'm trying to estimate the number of visas within a given range of case numbers. The data below is based on the Ankara numbers and is good for AS

I'll start with the bottom line...

Depending on how many Iranians are doing AOS (3-6%) or are resident outside of Iran (2-15%) and given the many assumptions below, I estimate the number of potential visas to be anything between 87% to 116% of the cutoff number.

So for 6,525 the number of potential visas range between 5,677 to 7,570...

  • The data is in this document
  • The graph shows the ratio for a given %of AOS and % of Iranians resident outside Iran




Assumptions:

  1. Some of the Iranians are interviewed in Ankara
    Reasoning: we know that Iranians are interviewed in Ankara, Dubai. From the GAO document footnote 35 we learn that at least in DV2007 they were interviewed at "the U.S. embassies in Abu Dhabi, Ankara, and Vienna, as well as the U.S. consulates in Dubai, Naples, and Frankfurt."

  2. The majority of AS interviews in Ankara are of Iranians
    Reasoning: While there were EU and AF interviews in Ankara, in October 2012, there were no AS interviews. Those have started in November. I assume that this is because Iranians receive 'special' treatment. If there were many non Iranians interviewed in Ankara we would have seen them in October 12

  3. Interviews are divided between embassies by case numbers.
    In other words, cases x to y go to Ankara, Y+1 to Z to another embassy etc.
    This is a bit delicate assumption. Lets take a look at the CN handled in Ankara. We can see several noticeable jumps:
    • In the December update, the highest interview number for January was 3226 while the cutoff was 3400. February started with 3459. So it seems that range ~3230 to ~3450 were directed elsewhere
    • Highest number for March is 4,959 while the cutoff is is 5200. So again, a noticeable range was directed elsewhere.
    In other words, there are relatively big chunks of CNs that are not handled in Ankara. So I assume that this is true also for other posts that handle the Iranians

  4. Reasonable percent of AOS is 3-6%.
    Reasoning: In the GAO document they mentioned that "In fiscal years 2000 through 2005, about 5 percent of DV immigrants adjusted status" (footnote 6). This matches the formal numbers plotted in this graph. Today the AOS ratio is ~3.5%

  5. Asia's Derivatives Factor
    This is estimated based on the number of participants, their spouse & children and number of selected entries from each country. It is 1.82 for Asia

  6. Iranians leaving abroad
    One can assume that some of the selected Iranians leave abroad (e.g. immigrated out of Iran) and therefore may have their interview in those foreign countries. Wikipedia estimates 4-5 million out of 75 (5-7%) I estimated 2-15% of the selected entries.

  7. Case numbers are consecutive
    If they are not then the number of estimated interviews drop...

I took the case number range of 3400 to 4950. There are 296 interviews in a range of 1559 case numbers. Based on the above assumptions, number of interviews is between 830 to 1,065. Total potential visas is between 1,505 to 1,933.

Could have been worse...
 
The problem is I cannot understand what exactly you want to estimate.
Do you want to know how many Iranians would get visas in DV-2013?
Iranian citizens?
Iranian natives?
 
... and now for the good news...

In a conference on 28 September 2010 announcing DV12 , Mr WILCOCK said:

But we don’t have people show up and interview and pay for the application only to be – and then tell them that they can’t go because we’ve run out visas. We don’t do it that way. Carefully looking at the numbers and how they’re used up throughout the program year, and when we know that the next person in line is going to get a shot at a visa number, then we will send them the information about their interview date.

So anyone who has an interview date - there is a visa available with you name on it ! just don't flunk the interview....


Another thing: In the document 9 FAM 42.33 PROCEDURAL NOTES they mention several times that the order of case numbers should be kept because there is not enough visas for all selectees.
Now take a look at the interview dates in Ankara for AS numbers. The order is not kept... I conclude that there is a 'guaranteed' visa for each successful interview so they allow themselves to not keep the order. So as long as Ankara keep this weird pattern we can assume that there are enough visas for everyone in that month... :)
 
So, do you want to estimate the number of persons who got an interview but was denied a visa because visas were exhausted?
 
The problem is I cannot understand what exactly you want to estimate.
Do you want to know how many Iranians would get visas in DV-2013?
Iranian citizens?
Iranian natives?

I want to know how many potential visas are there in a given case number range. I have real data for Iranians. I can estimate how many interviews Iranians have and from there how many interviews in Asia. From the number of interviews I can estimate the number of potential visas in that case numbers range.
 
So, you want to know how many entries from Iran are in the diapozone AS5,677 to AS7,570?
Or do you want to know how many interviews with Iranians in that diaposone are going to be in Ancara?
 
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The answer to the first question is more or less simple - about 620 (and I do not need your data for that - not a single piece)
The answer to the second one is very difficult and I would not be able to elaborate on that.
 
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Another thing: In the document 9 FAM 42.33 PROCEDURAL NOTES they mention several times that the order of case numbers should be kept because there is not enough visas for all selectees.
Now take a look at the interview dates in Ankara for AS numbers. The order is not kept... I conclude that there is a 'guaranteed' visa for each successful interview so they allow themselves to not keep the order. So as long as Ankara keep this weird pattern we can assume that there are enough visas for everyone in that month...
No, I just think they reserve visa numbers for those who are going to be scheduled interviews. And then interviews are scheduled

they mention several times that the order of case numbers should be kept because there is not enough visas for all selectees
I also do not see that in the document
 
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The answer to the second one is very difficult and I would not be able to elaborate on that.
I could actually get the answer to the second question as well, but I need the number of interviews in Ankara for Asia in the whole year DV-2012.
 
So, you want to know how many entries from Iran are in the diapozone AS5,677 to AS7,570?
Or do you want to know how many interviews with Iranians in that diaposone are going to be in Ancara?

No to both.

I want to know if all Iranians that do not do AOS and are not living outside of Iran and have case number between 3400 and 4950 (the range I checked), have their interview in Ankara. This is assumption number 3 ...
 
Well,

Abu Dhabi United Arab Emirates
Ankara Turkey
Frankfurt Germany (Family-based applicants only)
Naples Italy
Vienna Austria

I see that Iranians living in Iran do not have a usual place for an interview. How would you distinguish between Iranians living in Iran and not living in Iran? They all could have interviews in Ankara.
And also wehy do you need that?
 
Trying to distinguish between those living in Iran and outside service by Ankara based by overall percentage of Iranian population is ridiculous. I do not support that idea.
 
Case numbers are consecutive
If they are not then the number of estimated interviews drop...
They are consecutive, but with holes in them, made by removes disqualified entries.
 
Interviews are divided between embassies by case numbers.
In other words, cases x to y go to Ankara, Y+1 to Z to another embassy etc.
This is a bit delicate assumption. Lets take a look at the CN handled in Ankara. We can see several noticeable jumps:

In the December update, the highest interview number for January was 3226 while the cutoff was 3400. February started with 3459. So it seems that range ~3230 to ~3450 were directed elsewhere
Highest number for March is 4,959 while the cutoff is is 5200. So again, a noticeable range was directed elsewhere.
Those could be random fluctuations. Calculate standard deviation from average
 
Num3er5...

First, thanks raevsky for your comments, i always learn something new from your posts :)

Few words on what I was trying to do.

First: I wanted to pass the time while waiting for my turn... Second, since my CN is rather high, I want to know where I stand.

If I can figure out how many interviews were actually performed for a given range of case numbers then I can estimate how many potential visas could have been handed out.

If I can estimate the number of interviews for one national group that (1) has relatively high number of selectees and (2) behaves in a 'normal' manner in comparison to other countries in the region, then I can have an estimation for the whole region, which is what I want.

Lucky for me (us) there is real data for such a group - the Iranians. The data is published on the site of the US embassy in Ankara.

Unfortunately the data is not complete for all selected Iranians. There are 3 groups of Iranians for which I do not have real data and will have to estimate. If I estimate those groups I can estimate for the Iranians and from there to all Asia.

The groups are:

Group (1): Iranians that are doing AOS.
From the links that raevsky posted, this can be estimated to 2%

Group (2): Iranians that are living outside Iran.
One can assume that Iranians living, say, in Guatemala, will have their interview there or in a neighboring country, and not in Ankara or Dubai. Because of the random nature of the DV program, those persons are spread evenly among the selectees. Let's estimate this group as P%

Group (3): Iranians that are being interviewed in posts other than Ankara, e.g. in Dubai.
This is a group similar to group 2 and for reasons I listed above, for the test range I examined, I estimated this group to be very close to zero.



So, I took a range of case numbers, estimated the number of interviews for the Iranians in that group, and from there, the number of interviews in all Asia. This gave me the estimation for the number of potential visas.

I did this for two groups of case numbers.

For P% equals to 15% I got 99% and 111%.

Meaning, if your case number is, say 7890 then :

(1) you have good chances to become Current in May (but that just a side note :) )

and

(2) the number of potential visas that could have been handed out when your turn comes is between 7811 to 8,758

for P% equals to 10% we have 94% and 101% (7,417 to 8,206)

If this makes anyone happy then it was worth the trouble... if not - then remember, its just numbers - it probably means nothing...
 
I do not trust those calculations. Quite a lot of people submit their forms not at the very first moment but later. So, they could have low numbers, but they cannot have interview earlier than they submit their documents. So, there will be still a number of interview with low numbers. I can hardly believe you will be able to beat that unknown factor.
Also, the fact that your status is already saying you won means you will most likely be able to have an interview. So, do not bother trying to figure out when or if. You will most likely have it.
At the same time, the fact that you are Iranian does not matter. The load of Ankara consulate is flexible, they hire as many people as they need.
So, everything is defined by your AS number within Asia anywa, mayble plus an additional month. My estimate for maximum Asian number which won is 18500. And 16045 winners are evenly spread out up to that number. I am pretty sure all or almost all published numbers will be able to get visas
 
BTW, I am leaving for vacation for a couple of weeks. If you have anything urgent - ask right away.
 
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