enchevetrement
Registered Users (C)
Hi All,
I'm trying to estimate the number of visas within a given range of case numbers. The data below is based on the Ankara numbers and is good for AS
I'll start with the bottom line...
Depending on how many Iranians are doing AOS (3-6%) or are resident outside of Iran (2-15%) and given the many assumptions below, I estimate the number of potential visas to be anything between 87% to 116% of the cutoff number.
So for 6,525 the number of potential visas range between 5,677 to 7,570...
Assumptions:
I took the case number range of 3400 to 4950. There are 296 interviews in a range of 1559 case numbers. Based on the above assumptions, number of interviews is between 830 to 1,065. Total potential visas is between 1,505 to 1,933.
Could have been worse...
I'm trying to estimate the number of visas within a given range of case numbers. The data below is based on the Ankara numbers and is good for AS
I'll start with the bottom line...
Depending on how many Iranians are doing AOS (3-6%) or are resident outside of Iran (2-15%) and given the many assumptions below, I estimate the number of potential visas to be anything between 87% to 116% of the cutoff number.
So for 6,525 the number of potential visas range between 5,677 to 7,570...
- The data is in this document
- The graph shows the ratio for a given %of AOS and % of Iranians resident outside Iran
Assumptions:
- Some of the Iranians are interviewed in Ankara
Reasoning: we know that Iranians are interviewed in Ankara, Dubai. From the GAO document footnote 35 we learn that at least in DV2007 they were interviewed at "the U.S. embassies in Abu Dhabi, Ankara, and Vienna, as well as the U.S. consulates in Dubai, Naples, and Frankfurt."
- The majority of AS interviews in Ankara are of Iranians
Reasoning: While there were EU and AF interviews in Ankara, in October 2012, there were no AS interviews. Those have started in November. I assume that this is because Iranians receive 'special' treatment. If there were many non Iranians interviewed in Ankara we would have seen them in October 12
- Interviews are divided between embassies by case numbers.
In other words, cases x to y go to Ankara, Y+1 to Z to another embassy etc.
This is a bit delicate assumption. Lets take a look at the CN handled in Ankara. We can see several noticeable jumps:- In the December update, the highest interview number for January was 3226 while the cutoff was 3400. February started with 3459. So it seems that range ~3230 to ~3450 were directed elsewhere
- Highest number for March is 4,959 while the cutoff is is 5200. So again, a noticeable range was directed elsewhere.
- Reasonable percent of AOS is 3-6%.
Reasoning: In the GAO document they mentioned that "In fiscal years 2000 through 2005, about 5 percent of DV immigrants adjusted status" (footnote 6). This matches the formal numbers plotted in this graph. Today the AOS ratio is ~3.5%
- Asia's Derivatives Factor
This is estimated based on the number of participants, their spouse & children and number of selected entries from each country. It is 1.82 for Asia
- Iranians leaving abroad
One can assume that some of the selected Iranians leave abroad (e.g. immigrated out of Iran) and therefore may have their interview in those foreign countries. Wikipedia estimates 4-5 million out of 75 (5-7%) I estimated 2-15% of the selected entries.
- Case numbers are consecutive
If they are not then the number of estimated interviews drop...
I took the case number range of 3400 to 4950. There are 296 interviews in a range of 1559 case numbers. Based on the above assumptions, number of interviews is between 830 to 1,065. Total potential visas is between 1,505 to 1,933.
Could have been worse...