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DV-2015 winners from Asia with CN 10,000+

E

Elmar

New Member
Hello everyone! Hope you're all fine and well!
I just stumbled upon this forum, can't believe I've never come upon it before. The amount of information shared is AMAZING. Many thanks to all members and moderators who find time to answer everyone's questions!!
I am a DV-2015 winner, this has been a very stressful year, my case number is 2015AS000114XX. I am worried by the slow movement of Asia this year, if it continued like that we won't go over 10k. I'm afraid I will no longer make it :( Dear experts and fellow winners with CNs close to mine, do you think there is a possibility that my number will get current. Also please what do you think would be the final cutoff for Asia this year.
Last year's was 13,350, can we still go near that?
I admit I don't have much knowledge of the process and I would love to hear all opinions.

Discuss!!
 
There will be some bigger "jumps" in AS region in the last two VBs. Nepal is now limited, Iran is about to be exhausted, so the "Rest of Asia" (ROA) can increase. However, I very much doubt we will see 13350 again. 114XX is a possibility - the deciding factor is how many visas are taken by Iranian selectees.

No one can tell you for certain about the final number - you really just have to wait and see....

Best of luck!
 
Elmar said:
Hello everyone! Hope you're all fine and well!
I just stumbled upon this forum, can't believe I've never come upon it before. The amount of information shared is AMAZING. Many thanks to all members and moderators who find time to answer everyone's questions!!
I am a DV-2015 winner, this has been a very stressful year, my case number is 2015AS000114XX. I am worried by the slow movement of Asia this year, if it continued like that we won't go over 10k. I'm afraid I will no longer make it :( Dear experts and fellow winners with CNs close to mine, do you think there is a possibility that my number will get current. Also please what do you think would be the final cutoff for Asia this year.
Last year's was 13,350, can we still go near that?
I admit I don't have much knowledge of the process and I would love to hear all opinions.

Discuss!!
Click to expand...
No better advice than Britsimon's, he already gave you his realistic assessment, hence no need for additional discussion as per your posting really.
 
Britsimon said:
There will be some bigger "jumps" in AS region in the last two VBs. Nepal is now limited, Iran is about to be exhausted, so the "Rest of Asia" (ROA) can increase. However, I very much doubt we will see 13350 again. 114XX is a possibility - the deciding factor is how many visas are taken by Iranian selectees.

No one can tell you for certain about the final number - you really just have to wait and see....

Best of luck!
Click to expand...
Yes, I kinda noticed how the number jumped last year when Nepal was excluded, but I was worried because this happened last month and the jump wasn't large, albeit better than previous months.. Is there an indication on how far Iran is going this year? My main worry is that after the slow progress all year, we won't see a large jump in the end..

You've been very helpful, Britsimon. Thank you!
 
Britsimon-san, I remember you were talking about a magical database that would sort out APs duration on a case by case basis. Did you have a chance to use it?
 
Britsimon said:
No - I need a few hours time to do that and between BritSimon questions and my day job I have not had that time.
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Hi, I was wondering if I could help with that. I'm sure I can spare some time. The least I could do to help.
 
FSW2015 said:
Hi, I was wondering if I could help with that. I'm sure I can spare some time. The least I could do to help.
Click to expand...

Thank you.

However, what I did was create a database which I put in the Oracle database at work. Then I wrote a programn in a tool I use (SQR) that loads the data from the CEAC extracts and updates status. This is so I have a comment like "Began AP" or "ended AP". THen I can hit that data with SQL. Since all that works on our corporate environment I am pretty much stuck with it. It's not hard work - just a matter of having time....
 
Britsimon said:
Thank you.

However, what I did was create a database which I put in the Oracle database at work. Then I wrote a programn in a tool I use (SQR) that loads the data from the CEAC extracts and updates status. This is so I have a comment like "Began AP" or "ended AP". THen I can hit that data with SQL. Since all that works on our corporate environment I am pretty much stuck with it. It's not hard work - just a matter of having time....
Click to expand...
You're welcome, Simon. I may not be the best in IT stuff, but thought I'd lend a hand. Scary to think our fate will be decided in about a month..
 
Idea Mani said:
I loaded your CEAC data to SQL server and have some stored procedure to do this work for me.
Thanks Britsimon for the data.
Click to expand...

Got it. Excel can do that too - however, you are only looking at point on time numbers for AP cases. What is most interesting is the time each given case spends in AP - and coming up with an average duration of AP per embassy. Your chart does not reveal that.
 
NaraLB said:
Thanks! I was looking at the numbers and I found that there's a large difference between total CNs of 2015 and total CNs of 2014 per 1000, then it crossed my mind that they are much more in 2015 because of the "at NVC" status which we didn't have last year. Am I right?
Click to expand...

Correct.
 
i've been reading about other regions possibly not quite meeting the quota for one reason or another............just wondering, if that were to happen, would that push other regions to higher CNs....or is that not a factor?
 
and also, the Next VB for Asia is pretty much meaningless for 10000 + CNs right? because no matter how fast or slow it goes, we have to wait until Iran's done which won't be until sept, to determine the final result.

im just asking because then i can just go to sleep tonight and wake up on July 10th.......as this is too excruciating lol
 
I think the next VB is important. KCC must have some estimate of how many AP will be cleared up until September, so that they direct the progress accordingly. So when they plan for August, they would probably have a tentative idea what they would do in September.
As last year the big jump happened for August, and September was quite a residual month (not only for Asia).
It does not mean they will do the same this year, however common sense would suggest they would try be certain to fill the quota and not to leave major work load with its uncertainties for the last month of the year.
 
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