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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

Question for Sloner

Hi, I'm from Croatia and I have very high CN 53*** Whats your opinion, what are my chances for getting an interview?
 
i, I'm from Croatia and I have very high CN 53*** Whats your opinion, what are my chances for getting an interview?
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hello. The interview can be held in September. I think there is a chance.
 
question for all.
I have a theory that is not also have a large number in a large country or small.
For example, we know that all the winners from the large country can not get a visa.
 
RenatoS said:
question for all.
I have a theory that is not also have a large number in a large country or small.
For example, we know that all the winners from the large country can not get a visa.
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I'm not really clear on what you are trying to say.

However, there is a limit on the amount of visas any one country can receive - that limit is 7% of the available visas - so no more than 3500 visas or 3850 visas if all of NACARA visas are unused.
 
britsimon said:
I'm not really clear on what you are trying to say.

However, there is a limit on the amount of visas any one country can receive - that limit is 7% of the available visas - so no more than 3500 visas or 3850 visas if all of NACARA visas are unused.
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Yes exactly what I mean, just look at how many Ukrainians elected and how many will have a chance to interview.
 
RenatoS said:
Yes exactly what I mean, just look at how many Ukrainians elected and how many will have a chance to interview.
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Right, so it isn't a theory - it is a fact. However, you must also understand that VERY large numbers of selectees do not progress their visa progress at all - so although Ukraine has 6000 selectees, it is likely that the global limit will hit before the country limit of 7%.
 
fouadabunabout said:
hi guys

can i check my cas number undr CEAC web site check status , or is there any way to check my case number 2014AS00005000
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No you can't check that number yet - if you check last years data (enter 2013AS5000 for example) you will see how the CEAC system works, BUT your data won't be on there for some months.
 
britsimon said:
Right, so it isn't a theory - it is a fact. However, you must also understand that VERY large numbers of selectees do not progress their visa progress at all - so although Ukraine has 6000 selectees, it is likely that the global limit will hit before the country limit of 7%.
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So in your opinion does not matter from which country is the winner, talking about the EU. And which would be your opinion of us with a very high number, specifically 53xxx
 
RenatoS said:
So in your opinion does not matter from which country is the winner, talking about the EU. And which would be your opinion of us with a very high number, specifically 53xxx
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That is a high number and is outside of any predicted cutoff I have made or seen (except by Sloner). By all means keep hold of your hope BUT i would be very surprised if the numbers went that high. The only hope you have really is that the NACARA visas are not absorbed by the NACARA program and are therefore available for the DV lottery (i.e. that this year has 55,000 visas not 50,000.
 
thanks , about the 7% what you meen about it , is there selecting 7% from asia each month for ex.. or 7% from each country ? can you explain to me what they meen about 7% ,
 
fouadabunabout said:
thanks , about the 7% what you meen about it , is there selecting 7% from asia each month for ex.. or 7% from each country ? can you explain to me what they meen about 7% ,
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7% is the maximum allowed number per country per year. It's not a target so some small countries don't even get one visa. It just means for large countries, once they have reached the 7% quota they stop issuing visas for that country.
 
we are losing hope for the coming 2 month feb and morch do u think i can reach my interview in the coming 2 month , it seem they are moving slowly as much as they can , also how can i know haw many person they are meet in each embassy , like jordan for example how can i know this month how many cases they met ?
 
fouadabunabout said:
we are losing hope for the coming 2 month feb and morch do u think i can reach my interview in the coming 2 month , it seem they are moving slowly as much as they can , also how can i know haw many person they are meet in each embassy , like jordan for example how can i know this month how many cases they met ?
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I think you will get your interview in this coming 2 months. It has been slow for 4 months cut off, it cannot be that slow for another 2 more months, if it still progress as last few months it can never meet their target of around 9000 visas available for Asia.
 
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Sloner said:
my new calculations show. What they decide, I think to take a visa at Nacara. http://greencard.by/upload/imager/f1e899353a25600a31bfaaafde337336.png
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Glad to see you have finally moved on from 2012. I assume you now accept that the new software has no impact on the selectee to visa part of the process.

The new numbers show a demand of just over 55,000. However, the numbers you are taking as input are from the 2013 spreadsheet. That doesn't include all embassies (two are mentioned as missing), and it also does not include AOS cases (which represent around 5% - so 2500 at least). I also suspect that the CEAC data spreadsheet (your input) is missing some cases from the end. SO - you have demonstrated that if the response/pass rates are the same as last year, then the demand for visas will be around 58/59k as a minimum. So if NACARA takes NO visas we would be about 7% oversubscribed (meaning the top 7% of case numbers would lose out). At the other end of the scale, if NACARA takes all 5k visas we are about 18% oversubscribed.
 
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