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DV-2014 Lottery High number or not? Please help.

When looking at the dv lottery state.gov web page, they seem still to mention additional selection in 2013:

"2014 Entrant Status Check

DV-2014 entrants may enter their confirmation information through the link below starting at noon (EDT) on May 1, 2013. The DV-2014 registration period was from October 2, 2012, until November 3, 2012. DV-2014 entrants should keep their confirmation number until at least June 30, 2014. Additional entries may be selected in October 2013."

That would mean the high CN numbers selected in May may not be even enough to fill the visa quotas?
 
scusyxx said:
House409,
Where did you see that number?
Click to expand...

You go under the dept of state electronic visa checking system: ceac.state.gov/ceac

And you type 2013eu1 (do not type the series of zeroes in front of a case number).

You can check all numbers that were selected for DV13. The last ones seems to be 2013eu30532.
 
House409,
Do you know, what exactly is the raevsky's theory?

House409 said:
That would be very interesting to know, because that would mean there are almost 75% more notified numbers compared to DV13 (with the highest numbers being in the 31k-33k range). They have selected 20% more entrants in DV14, but still, notifying 75% more applicants is a huge jump. Unless there are much more holes in between winning CN numbers, there is something that does not add up. Raevsky has some theory about this. Nobody knows yet for sure, but the first data in the CEAC system should give us some valuable information.
Click to expand...
 
I have no idea why I thought they don't repeat the same case numbers for different regions. Apparently, they issued a total of 49 visas for the bottom 10 case numbers :( That doesn't make me too optimistic about high 2014 numbers... I was hoping to see EU 52000s scheduled for an interview (I agree with Raevsky's theory, I just prefer to never give up on hope :)). I don't check these numbers often (actually, never until now), this is so frustrating :)

2013EU1 (4)
2013AS1 (4)
2013SA1 (1)
2013AS2 (1)
2013SA2 (4)
2013NA2 (6)
2013AF2 (1)
2013SA4 (2)
2013AF4 (2)
2013EU5 (5)
2013AS5 (1)
2013SA5 (3)
2013OC5 (1)
2013AF6 (3)
2013OC6 (1)
2013AF7 (2)
2013EU8 (4)
2013AS8 (1)
2013SA9 (2)
2013OC9 (1)
 
scusyxx said:
House409,
Do you know, what exactly is the raevsky's theory?
Click to expand...

Based on Raevsky theory, the 125k (in DV-14) only applied to principal applicants that mean 125k principal applicants will be notify and 125k case # issued for all 6 regions. So, if we take roughly 1.5 times for dependents under the principal applicant, it will have 200k going for 50k available visa. And he also said in DV-14 the case # is much higher than dv-13 because there is a hidden case # in previous years. That's why, he think a lot of applicants do not get their interview in DV-14 because in DV-14 there increase 20% and at the same time there open up the hidden case #. Just wanted to point out, he is assuming the holes stay at 15% and the progression rate is the same as dv-13. Any of this assumption can drastically change the progress of DV-14. So, I would take this as one of the prediction in this forum. I still believe not all years the same, just a tiny variable changed, it will impact the whole progress, could be toward positive or negative. So, nobody really know how it turn out at this moment. As long as you already sent in your forms to KCC (regardless of your case #) you have a chance.
 
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Do you think they will process faster? Or same?

kayend said:
Based on Raevsky theory, the 125k (in DV-14) only applied to principal applicants that mean 125k principal applicants will be notify and 125k case # issued for all 6 regions. So, if we take roughly 1.5 times for dependents under the principal applicant, it will have 200k going for 50k available visa. And he also said in DV-14 the case # is much higher than dv-13 because there is a hidden case # in previous years. That's why, he think a lot of applicants do not get their interview in DV-14 because in DV-14 there increase 20% and at the same time there open up the hidden case #. Just wanted to point out, he is assuming the holes stay at 15% and the progression rate is the same as dv-13. Any of this assumption can drastically change the progress of DV-14. So, I would take this as one of the prediction in this forum. I still believe not all years the same, just a tiny variable changed, it will impact the whole progress, could be toward positive or negative. So, nobody really know how it turn out at this moment. As long as you already sent in your forms to KCC (regardless of your case #) you have a chance.
Click to expand...
 
scusyxx said:
Do you think they will process faster? Or same?
Click to expand...


Largely the same. The processing speed is not dependent on the volume of case numbers remaining to process, it is determined (largely) by available resources and the response rate.
 
Zee Zee said:
I have no idea why I thought they don't repeat the same case numbers for different regions. Apparently, they issued a total of 49 visas for the bottom 10 case numbers :( That doesn't make me too optimistic about high 2014 numbers... I was hoping to see EU 52000s scheduled for an interview (I agree with Raevsky's theory, I just prefer to never give up on hope :)). I don't check these numbers often (actually, never until now), this is so frustrating :)

2013EU1 (4)
2013AS1 (4)
2013SA1 (1)
2013AS2 (1)
2013SA2 (4)
2013NA2 (6)
2013AF2 (1)
2013SA4 (2)
2013AF4 (2)
2013EU5 (5)
2013AS5 (1)
2013SA5 (3)
2013OC5 (1)
2013AF6 (3)
2013OC6 (1)
2013AF7 (2)
2013EU8 (4)
2013AS8 (1)
2013SA9 (2)
2013OC9 (1)
Click to expand...

When proceeding to the selection, Dept of State gives randomly a unique number to all principal applicants, independently for each region. Then, they eliminate all entries that don't qualify (duplicate entries, fraudulent, etc...). That is where holes between consecutive winning selectee numbers are created.
 
Zee Zee said:
I have no idea why I thought they don't repeat the same case numbers for different regions. Apparently, they issued a total of 49 visas for the bottom 10 case numbers :( That doesn't make me too optimistic about high 2014 numbers... I was hoping to see EU 52000s scheduled for an interview (I agree with Raevsky's theory, I just prefer to never give up on hope :)). I don't check these numbers often (actually, never until now), this is so frustrating :)

2013EU1 (4)
2013AS1 (4)
2013SA1 (1)
2013AS2 (1)
2013SA2 (4)
2013NA2 (6)
2013AF2 (1)
2013SA4 (2)
2013AF4 (2)
2013EU5 (5)
2013AS5 (1)
2013SA5 (3)
2013OC5 (1)
2013AF6 (3)
2013OC6 (1)
2013AF7 (2)
2013EU8 (4)
2013AS8 (1)
2013SA9 (2)
2013OC9 (1)
Click to expand...

This sample of numbers shows quite a lot.

Firstly you can see the holes theory. The top 10 numbers have 20 winners between the 6 regions. With no holes there would be 60 numbers, so that is a large number of holes. I'm not sure whether denied applications would still show on here, so that might be some of the holes.

The consecutive numbers within a region - for instance 2013AS1 (4) and then 2013AS2 (1) demonstrate that one case number is allocated to one winner, with derivatives (spouse and children) added on that number. AS1 was a family of 4, and AS2 was a single person. As I have said before that is the most conclusive evidence that the 125k winners were principals only.

This is too small a set to decide about average visas per selectee, but I have read 1.6 visas per selectee globally with some regions markedly higher than that.

I think the EU highest number for DV2013 was around 44k - so the fact that the CEAC runs out at 30532 seems to suggest they stopped scheduling interviews/issuing visas at that point. I'd be interested to hear about a DV2013EU case higher than that since those numbers are now current.
 
I have mainly two notes. First. Resources do not look static to me. They have a lot of resources available immediately. DV visas is only a tiny portion of amount of visas being issued. They could delay other visas and at the same time hire new people if necessary. And reallocate people to DV visas from other visas. So DV visas would be processed immediately while other visas would be delayed for a brief period of time only. I also understand that visa application fee covers salaries for new stuff.
And anoter note - I have never seen any EU numbers higher than 30xxx in DV-13. I think 30532 or so (maybe up to 30800 max; just because some consulates are out of CEAC system) is in fact the highest open number
 
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enough histgoy

Refused visas are still in CEAC system as well. A number of statuses is available - Ready, Issued, Refused, Admin Processing, Transfer in Progress and some other rare status, difficult to look up on iPad, Transfer To and Transfer From are called differently)
 
I always thought that the number of selectees (DV2014 =125k) was primary applicants only. That's how they explained it on my country's forum. That gives about 200k including family members which seems to be high but disqualification rate is enormous I guess. What interests me is how they actually draw the numbers? We know that Africa takes about 50% of visas, then Europe gets 30% and so on. So do they first split application numbers to continents, assume that they need 50k selectees for Europe, they draw 50k and hide top 20k or so. They assume that they need 100k for Africa and so on? Or do they draw 300k from all of applicants and then they start throwing people into continent basket cutting off once they reach let's say 50k for Europe, 100k for Africa?
 
franko said:
I always thought that the number of selectees (DV2014 =125k) was primary applicants only. That's how they explained it on my country's forum. That gives about 200k including family members which seems to be high but disqualification rate is enormous I guess. What interests me is how they actually draw the numbers? We know that Africa takes about 50% of visas, then Europe gets 30% and so on. So do they first split application numbers to continents, assume that they need 50k selectees for Europe, they draw 50k and hide top 20k or so. They assume that they need 100k for Africa and so on? Or do they draw 300k from all of applicants and then they start throwing people into continent basket cutting off once they reach let's say 50k for Europe, 100k for Africa?
Click to expand...

This is what I understand how it works. When all entries will put into 6 different pool based on the region of the entries. It called regional pool. Then it start to select the winner from the regional pool. Yes, it based on the percentage allocated to each region. Like Africa target 50% of 125k. Once selected, a random number it assign to it and that we called case #. It will do a fraud check on that case #, if it doesn't pass thru the fraud check it will disqualify it. So, holes are created from random number generation and disqualification of entries. It will stop the selection when each of the region pool met it target. I might be wrong but this is my understanding so far.
 
scusyxx said:
Do you think they will process faster? Or same?
Click to expand...

This is a very difficult question. Same believe it will progress the same but based on the history, not every year is the same. Even there is a case in Asia, two month is having the same cut off. If based on logical thinking this shouldn't happen but it did happened. So any think can happened. It just too many variables that can impact the progress.
 
200k total means half of the winner might not have even interview scheduled, right?

kayend said:
This is a very difficult question. Same believe it will progress the same but based on the history, not every year is the same. Even there is a case in Asia, two month is having the same cut off. If based on logical thinking this shouldn't happen but it did happened. So any think can happened. It just too many variables that can impact the progress.
Click to expand...
 
House409 said:
When proceeding to the selection, Dept of State gives randomly a unique number to all principal applicants, independently for each region. Then, they eliminate all entries that don't qualify (duplicate entries, fraudulent, etc...). That is where holes between consecutive winning selectee numbers are created.
Click to expand...

I have checked some random numbers from the CEAC link , it seems that the Case Numbers are randomized between DV-Lottery as well for other types of Immigration Visa, am not sure about the speculation we can conclude! but maybe i can say that when they assigned the 125K selected for DV-2014 cases numbers, they took into consideration other types of Immigration other than DV while numbering, Maybe i am wrong, not sure though :confused:

to confirm that, I also noticed that some case numbers started at OCT 2011 and Finished at the 12-FEB-2013 which means more than 1 Fiscal year, some other cases was under AP, and clearly mentioned the note of must finish before 30 SEP
 
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Is there anybody who agree raevsky`s theory that case number above 40k in EU region have no chance in dv2014?
 
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