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Cutoff numbers for March 2014 visa bulletin (contains April Cutoffs)

Britsimon

Britsimon

Super Moderator
There are two other threads covering these numbers which we were able to obtain yesterday. However, some people are still asking and we need the summary - so here it is.

EU – 25400
-- Uzbekistan 14750
AS - 5350
SA - 1140
OC - 900
AF - 30,000
-- Egypt 22850
-- Nigeria 11600
-- Note – Ethiopia Country cutoff removed.


This information was compiled from several people making the phonecalls to KCC - so thanks all that did that and then took the time to post the results in the forum. Again - the members of this forum are doing an amazing job of informing, supporting and helping each other - the VAST majority in good humour!

My analysis and thoughts of those numbers?
EU and SA continue to make good progress. AS region had a pretty good jump considering there was no limit placed on Nepal or Iran. In AF the 30k number was a big surprise (lower than anyone predicted). Nice jump for Ethiopia and Egypt, Nigeria still running slow. OC region is horribly slow, and perhaps the biggest surprise of the 5 regions given their increase in quota.
 
Thanks simon

AF didn't progress as expected!
It is probably a lack of holes,I think the big part of the cases (62000) are more present in the first 7 VB, so hopefully the bloody big jump will show up by now :)
 
vladek15425 said:
Thanks simon

AF didn't progress as expected!
It is probably a lack of holes,I think the big part of the cases (62000) are more present in the first 7 VB, so hopefully the bloody big jump will show up by now :)
Click to expand...

One thing AF does not have is a lack of holes - they have more than any other region (62,000 selectees with derivatives meaning only ~35,000 real case numbers taking ~116,000 CNs) - So - at least 2 holes for every real case number.

Honestly I tend to think the AP cases and increased security checks are hitting AF progress. We think the EU max CN is about half that of AF - so with EU at 25k, AF should be 45/50 about now if you think of the case numbers relative to each other...
 
It would be nice if that rafikbo76 guy would come up with new CEAC data at the end of the month, to see how many visas are issued so we can ramble on about statistics.
 
Thank You!!!

Thank you for your great work and valuable time SIMON!
What do you think, any chances for 2014EU00050XXX since we have the 25400 cutoff for april?

Many thanks again big man!
cheers, alex
 
britsimon said:
There are two other threads covering these numbers which we were able to obtain yesterday. However, some people are still asking and we need the summary - so here it is.

EU – 25400
-- Uzbekistan 14750
AS - 5350
SA - 1140
OC - 900
AF - 30,000
-- Egypt 22850
-- Nigeria 11600
-- Note – Ethiopia Country cutoff removed.


This information was compiled from several people making the phonecalls to KCC - so thanks all that did that and then took the time to post the results in the forum. Again - the members of this forum are doing an amazing job of informing, supporting and helping each other - the VAST majority in good humour!

My analysis and thoughts of those numbers?
EU and SA continue to make good progress. AS region had a pretty good jump considering there was no limit placed on Nepal or Iran. In AF the 30k number was a big surprise (lower than anyone predicted). Nice jump for Ethiopia and Egypt, Nigeria still running slow. OC region is horribly slow, and perhaps the biggest surprise of the 5 regions given their increase in quota.
Click to expand...

Britsimon my analysis on AF region going slow can be partly attributed to the inclusion of Ethiopia as part of African cutoff numbers. The last couple of bulletins Ethiopia's cutoff has been pretty close to that of the rest of Africa. This however means Ethiopia might quickly hit the country specific limit. My biggest worry however is for Nigeria which might not become current this year. For the rest of Africa, an increment of 5,000 isn't that bad given that probably half of these might be 'holes'.
 
britsimon said:
One thing AF does not have is a lack of holes - they have more than any other region (62,000 selectees with derivatives meaning only ~35,000 real case numbers taking ~116,000 CNs) - So - at least 2 holes for every real case number.

Honestly I tend to think the AP cases and increased security checks are hitting AF progress. We think the EU max CN is about half that of AF - so with EU at 25k, AF should be 45/50 about now if you think of the case numbers relative to each other...
Click to expand...

The 62000 is dispatched along 116000 cn you are right on this and always forget it ! And I will do again :)
Any way up to march cutof for af which is 25000. And we got 6785 max CNs.
So 25000-6785=18215.holes
So there is about 2~3 holes between each cn.
So within 6 month cutoff we got 18215 holes
Now 116000-62000(incl.fam)=54000 total hole for af.
54000-18215=35785.holes left for AF without dropout and failures!
Help me simon I'm sure its a total crap!
But tell me what you think?
 
acl said:
Thank you for your great work and valuable time SIMON!
What do you think, any chances for 2014EU00050XXX since we have the 25400 cutoff for april?

Many thanks again big man!
cheers, alex
Click to expand...

Hi Alex,

I assume you want my honest opinion, not just a fairytale to make you happy - so I will give it to you straight as I always do.

Honestly, EU50XXX is risky. Very risky. My own calculations and predictions are that the cutoff will fall somewhere between 40 and 45. The good progress we are seeing in EU doesn't change my feeling about that. Other predictions have been made by Raevsky and Sloner.

Raevsky has recently upped his max EU number prediction to nearly 39k with the assumption that we get more of the NACARA visas and some other slight tweaks.

Sloner would tell you that EU50k has a good chance. He is mostly basing that on 2012 results which I (and the majority of people) believe was an unprecedented mistake. However, he also believes there is a reversal quota mainly with a large decrease for AF and a large increase for EU. I believe that Sloner is partially correct about that. I don't think the adjustment will be as large as he is saying - but I do agree that AF will get a smaller proportion this year and EU will benefit from that along with other regions.

Neither Raevsky nor Sloner are fools (neither am I). So - we each have good reasons to say what we are saying - although we obviously don't agree on everything. Ultimately you will just have to wait and see.

So - the prediction ranges are between about 35k at the low end and about 50k (or even early 50s) at the top end. NO ONE knows for sure, so don't give up now, but just don't put all your hopes and dreams into this plan. Best of luck to you, and to all of us.
 
vladek15425 said:
The 62000 is dispatched along 116000 cn you are right on this and always forget it ! And I will do again :)
Any way up to march cutof for af which is 25000. And we got 6785 max CNs.
So 25000-6785=18215.holes
So there is about 2~3 holes between each cn.
So within 6 month cutoff we got 18215 holes
Now 116000-62000(incl.fam)=54000 total hole for af.
54000-18215=35785.holes left for AF without dropout and failures!
Help me simon I'm sure its a total crap!
But tell me what you think?
Click to expand...

That is probably about right - a bit too big. If holes are distributed evenly then we should have seen just over 1/4 of the holes (30/116). However, I tend to believe there may be more holes in higher ranges (because limited countries may create more holes).

Don't forget. People who don't respond appear to be holes - but they might respond later on, but in any case your 18215 includes holes and no response people - hence why your holes number looks a bit too big.
 
JONGE said:
Britsimon my analysis on AF region going slow can be partly attributed to the inclusion of Ethiopia as part of African cutoff numbers. The last couple of bulletins Ethiopia's cutoff has been pretty close to that of the rest of Africa. This however means Ethiopia might quickly hit the country specific limit. My biggest worry however is for Nigeria which might not become current this year. For the rest of Africa, an increment of 5,000 isn't that bad given that probably half of these might be 'holes'.
Click to expand...

Yes that could be right. However, I really don't think AF will go current this year, not just Nigeria.
 
britsimon said:
Hi Alex,

I assume you want my honest opinion, not just a fairytale to make you happy - so I will give it to you straight as I always do.

Honestly, EU50XXX is risky. Very risky. My own calculations and predictions are that the cutoff will fall somewhere between 40 and 45. The good progress we are seeing in EU doesn't change my feeling about that. Other predictions have been made by Raevsky and Sloner.

Raevsky has recently upped his max EU number prediction to nearly 39k with the assumption that we get more of the NACARA visas and some other slight tweaks.

Sloner would tell you that EU50k has a good chance. He is mostly basing that on 2012 results which I (and the majority of people) believe was an unprecedented mistake. However, he also believes there is a reversal quota mainly with a large decrease for AF and a large increase for EU. I believe that Sloner is partially correct about that. I don't think the adjustment will be as large as he is saying - but I do agree that AF will get a smaller proportion this year and EU will benefit from that along with other regions.

Neither Raevsky nor Sloner are fools (neither am I). So - we each have good reasons to say what we are saying - although we obviously don't agree on everything. Ultimately you will just have to wait and see.

So - the prediction ranges are between about 35k at the low end and about 50k (or even early 50s) at the top end. NO ONE knows for sure, so don't give up now, but just don't put all your hopes and dreams into this plan. Best of luck to you, and to all of us.
Click to expand...



Thank you simon for your immediate response! I appreciate your honesty - just great.
We will see and i hope for writing some good news in september ;-)

All the best to you and all the others on your journey!!! Where ever it may take us!
Cheers, Alex
 
britsimon said:
Yes that could be right. However, I really don't think AF will go current this year, not just Nigeria.
Click to expand...

Well I still think it will become CURRENT in September. Even at the current rate of 5,000 assuming the number of 'holes' are half that or lets say a third, then by August the VB will be at about 50,000 and considering the holes then the actually number will come to about 45,000 assuming that for each 5,000 a third a holes. Now not everyone in Africa pursues the visa like the other regions because of the cost implications which will cause the number to further drop. Now those with large families even find it harder to pursue the visa because of obvious reasons. Meaning derivatives aren't as high either.
 
JONGE said:
Well I still think it will become CURRENT in September. Even at the current rate of 5,000 assuming the number of 'holes' are half that or lets say a third, then by August the VB will be at about 50,000 and considering the holes then the actually number will come to about 45,000 assuming that for each 5,000 a third a holes. Now not everyone in Africa pursues the visa like the other regions because of the cost implications which will cause the number to further drop. Now those with large families even find it harder to pursue the visa because of obvious reasons. Meaning derivatives aren't as high either.
Click to expand...

I presume you're aware that last year Africa got to 81k cutoff in August before going current in September?
 
Ethiopia: winners
DV13-4910
DV14 -5718
She already foreclosed.:confused:
I said that the winnings may differ from the actual situation.
 
Sloner said:
Look at the movement of Ethiopia and Egypt last year and compare.:p
Click to expand...


OK. Done that, but my mind reading abilities are letting me down.

What I see is that Ethiopia were roughly in line with this year and both of them stayed limited until 50k in July.

So what is your point.
 
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