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Anybody from EU who has received a NL in 2005 or 2006 and did not get an interview?

J

juul

Registered Users (C)
Hi guys,

Still trying to find out what my changes are...

asd22 said:
I also think that it seems that for EU, every year all CNs became current, and probably if they sent documents back to KCC they obtain GC.:) I have still not heard for any case from EU who didnt went for interview because of high CN.
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Is there anybody here from Europe, who has received a NL in the past 5 years with a high casenumber who did not get an invitation for an interview?

asd22 said:
...and probably if they sent documents back to KCC they obtain GC.:).
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Anybody with an experience like this?
 
germany, mine is below 22xxx, it seems we will have to wait till jul-aug next year. who knows are they sending more NLs to EU or no.
 
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juul said:
Hi guys,

Still trying to find out what my changes are...



Is there anybody here from Europe, who has received a NL in the past 5 years with a high casenumber who did not get an invitation for an interview?



Anybody with an experience like this?
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Well in 2006, everyone who won the lottery [Except those born in Egypt and Ethiopia ] would have got a chance to face an interview because the cut-off for september 2006 is stated as being "current" for all regions.
Also I've read in some thread that additional NLs were sent
for europe in DV2007 a few months back. This means that all those who initially got NLs last month would have got a chance to face an interview.
So during the last 2 years atleast, everyone who got a NL in the initial period when NLs are sent out was called for an interview.

On the other hand the cut-off for europe in september 2005 was 20,500 [Except Ukrain]. That seems a low figure. The fact that the cut-off wasn't stated as being "current" probably means there was someone somewhere who missed the chance due to his case number being high!

In September 2004 it was 28,700 and in september 2003 it was 39,100! But on those years (I think!, someone please correct me if I am wrong!) the application process wasn't conducted online, applications for the lottery were sent in by mail and because of that the proportions of those who qualify among the winners were lower, so I don't think it would be right to compare dv2008
with dv2003, dv 2004 of before those years.
 
Well in 2006, everyone who won the lottery [Except those born in Egypt and Ethiopia ] would have got a chance to face an interview because the cut-off for september 2006 is stated as being "current" for all regions.
Also I've read in some thread that additional NLs were sent
for europe in DV2007 a few months back. This means that all those who initially got NLs last month would have got a chance to face an interview.
So during the last 2 years atleast, everyone who got a NL in the initial period when NLs are sent out was called for an interview.

On the other hand the cut-off for europe in september 2005 was 20,500 [Except Ukrain]. That seems a low figure. The fact that the cut-off wasn't stated as being "current" probably means there was someone somewhere who missed the chance due to his case number being high!
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I made the same observations here myself, 2005 was not a good year for people from the EU with high case numbers. Although it might be worthwhile trying to figure out how many NL were sent to EU that year the stats should be in a visa bulletin somewhere. Then we could see the difference of NL to the numbers that became current. Maybe 20500 was most of the cases??

maybe they decided not to make the same mistake again and that is why they sent NL up past 25XXX so that they don’t have to issue extra letters to the EU if the take up is bad in the DV2008

In September 2004 it was 28,700 and in september 2003 it was 39,100! But on those years (I think!, someone please correct me if I am wrong!) the application process wasn't conducted online, applications for the lottery were sent in by mail and because of that the proportions of those who qualify among the winners were lower, so I don't think it would be right to compare dv2008
with dv2003, dv 2004 of before those years.
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This makes total sense! I was wondering what the hell happened between these years that dramatically affected the DV numbers. It would be much easier to scan and disqualify people electronically, that mush have been why there were way less numbers going current after the DV went electronic. Thanks for pointing that out.

is your number higher than 255xx or below?
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FYI I am below 253XX just as a matter of interest.
 
tade256 said:
Hi,

You can find tons of statistical information in the data tables of the immigration yearbooks:
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Hey thanks for that link, I have been looking for information like that for the last few weeks. I am a bit of a stats freak. I’m doing some general number crunching on what ever information I can get, not sure what use I can make of the stats just yet, but I am sure I will get to some interesting conclusions eventually. A quick observation about 2005, from the visa bulletin Aug04/Aug05/Aug06 the bulletin that details how many qualified entrants that have been recorded:

DV-2005 - 9.5 million qualified entries
DV-2006 - 6.3 million qualified entries
DV-2007 - 5.5 million qualified entries
DV-2008 - 6.4 million qualified entries see-( http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2006/77895.htm)

There was a dramatic difference in 2005 in the amount of people who entered overall. I can’t find statistics on regional breakdown for DV-2005, i.e. in DV-2008 Europe had about 1.2 million qualified entries of the 6.5 over all qualified entries (http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2006/77895.htm).

Also from what I can tell there were approx 34000 NL's sent for DV 2005 ( I added up the numbers from all the EU countries from the aug 2004 visa bulletin )

So 2005 is looking like a bit of a mad year altogether, 34000 NL and case numbers finished in sep 2005 at 20500??? And according to the official statistics (from link above) only 20076 GC were issued in the EU that year. I am sure 9.5 million entrants must have had some differential effect on the 2005 DV, not sure exactly what at the moment. but as DV-2006 and DV 2008 have roughly the same qualified entries it may be a safe assumption that 2006 could be a good indication for the DV-2008??

When the aug07 visa bulletin it will have the NL break down, that will give the next most useful piece of information we can find out just how many NL for EU was sent for 2008 DV then, and compare that to previous years

General Disclaimer :) ……..

This is mostly conjecture, as usual :) but I am trying to make a slightly more educated guess from some basic statistics, of course there is no way of knowing the validity of any of this! So don’t be posting giving me a hard time! :) take what you will from this who ever is reading it. :)
 
Mihiranga said:
On the other hand the cut-off for europe in september 2005 was 20,500 [Except Ukrain]. That seems a low figure. The fact that the cut-off wasn't stated as being "current" probably means there was someone somewhere who missed the chance due to his case number being high!
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a lot of people missed it, and they are still bitter.
 
LucyMO said:
a lot of people missed it, and they are still bitter.
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I guess that means you have been following the DV closely for a long time! was there really 34000 odd NL sent the EU that year? That seems like way more then they sent in 2006/2007. 2005 seems like a bit of an odd year for the DV in 2005 the EU was issued with approx 41% of the total DV GC for that year, where as in 2006 the EU only got approx 33% of the DV green cards. (stats from the links above). It seems mad that even though the EU cut off remained at 20500, leaving out a good 14000 CN's that there was still a massive amount of GC's issued, 20076? Where as in 2006 when all the case numbers went current there was only about 15000 DV GC issued. I suppose you just cant predict how these things will pan out! I studied a fair bit of statistics at university, numbers like this fascinate me!
 
HI
It is quite surprisingly that in this forum if you check period may-sep 2005 there is nobody from EU complaining about high CN, or not receiving second pck. or what so ever. I do not understand quite well that for EU was 20500 and Ukraine 18XXX, does this means that there were in total 38xxx people called for interview?
 
asd22 said:
HI
It is quite surprisingly that in this forum if you check period may-sep 2005 there is nobody from EU complaining about high CN, or not receiving second pck. or what so ever. I do not understand quite well that for EU was 20500 and Ukraine 18XXX, does this means that there were in total 38xxx people called for interview?
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All those within the first 18xxx case numbers were called for an interview and among those whose case number was between 18xxx and 20500, everyone except those from Ukraine were called for an interview. This is because there is a limit of 3500 on the number of DV green cards that can be issued to a single country.
 
asd22 said:
HI
It is quite surprisingly that in this forum if you check period may-sep 2005 there is nobody from EU complaining about high CN, or not receiving second pck. or what so ever. I do not understand quite well that for EU was 20500 and Ukraine 18XXX, does this means that there were in total 38xxx people called for interview?
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Well there are a few things you need to remember.

1) NL’s are sent out in a random order.
2) Total GC allowed for any one country is 7% (or 3500) of total for that year.

What happened here is that there were probably so many applicants from the Ukraine that year that the probability of them getting a NL was higher. As I can’t get a break down of numbers of qualified applicants by country for DV-2005 I cant confirm this, but it seems a logical assumption, basic mathematical logic. That however did not work in their favour, because as soon as they had issued 7% (or 3500) of the total GC available for the Ukraine that year they stopped processing case numbers at what ever stage they were at, in this case 18000 ish. So any people from the Ukraine that had CN’s above 18000 were in effect eliminated from the DV-2005 process. :( that said if say you were from Ireland with a CN 19000 you still may have been called for processing, (CP) and although this was most likely late in the year as long as there were not glitches in your case you most likely would have gotten a GC.

The main point about the 2005 DV is the massive amount of qualified entrants (9.5 million) this will tend to skew the results of the DV towards the countries with more entrants, as long as the laws of basic probability were applied and every one had an equal and fair chance of being selected then naturally if there are more people from one country in the selection pool then they will tend to get a higher selection rate.

Now according to the DV-2008 press release: http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2006/77895.htm 1.7 million applicants from Bangladesh applied this year.

So what I reckon you are going to see when the final results of the DV-2008 are published in the visa bulletin in August is an enormous amount of CN’s issued to Asia, as many of them will have gone to qualified applicants in Bangladesh. But during the fiscal year 2008 as soon as 7% (or 3500) of the CG allowance is issued to Bangladesh then they will stop processing CN’s for Bangladesh.

We will see this pan out eventually. God I am such a nerd, shoot me quick :)
 
It seems that there were sent 25XXX Nls to EU, 16xxx to AS and 69xxx to AF.

rob1981 said:
I have a higher case number :) AF00069XXX , so play your chances and you never know eventhough our numbers are really high/
good luck anyways.
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FMFIA said:
Please could anyone remember the highest case number for DV2007 for Asia that you guy has come across?

As the current DV2007 case number for July for Asia is 7,750 and there are only two months left before the fiscal year is ended in September 07, I was trying to figure out if there is a reason why KCC has sent out A LOT of NL for Asia for DV2008.

A friend of mine just got his NL on Jun 1 and May 14 is a date shown on the letter head, his case number is 2008AS00016xxx and KCC will continue sending out NL until July. Based on the current case number for Asia appeared on the visa bullatin, how are they going to deal with a significant increase in the case numbers for Asia they have assigned? :confused:
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This would be 111.000 in total same as I have seen on the link below:

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/us...nnel=4f719c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCRD
 
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asd22 said:
It seems that there were sent 25XXX Nls to EU, 16xxx to AS and 69xxx to AF.
This would be 111.000 in total same as I have seen on the link below:

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/us...nnel=4f719c7755cb9010VgnVCM10000045f3d6a1RCRD
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I was about to post the same, when you add up all NL numbers for each region then it looks as if the total number of NL’s sent out is almost finished. I am saying almost because we can’t say for 100% that they are all sent, but it is looking likely.
 
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