2nl receive date
- Thread starter kumar man
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Britsimon
Super Moderator
You will get your 2NL in June or July for an August or September interview.
Simon, why so pessimistic about Asia? I remember you expected it to end mostly like DV-2014..
Britsimon
Super Moderator
That isn't a pessimistic view. If you take a look at DV2014, you can see that AS only jumped up very late in the process (once Nepal was limited). So - until Nepal hits the 7% (or rather is limited because that is predicted) AS will go slowly. Whilst that happened in July last year I think the DS260 slowdown will mean Nepal won't get limited until August. At that point, depending on how they are handling Iranian AP cases, there could be a big jump for AS. But, realistically, I don't think it can exceed the number from last year - so a good result would be in the 12000 to 13000 range for the final number.
Thank you Simon! I am desperately trying to forget the frustratingly slow progress of the VB, in the hope that the final number will be close to what you said (12k-13k)
Britsimon
Super Moderator
Yup - don't forget - that is what I would call a good result - i.e. my "optimistic" view.
I trust your judgement on this matter, and your numbers are very realistic (and optimistic
), but still, with KCC, we'll never know until the end!!
Sensei-san
Active Member
I might be wrong, but it looks to me that the jump was not so much due to Nepal. This year we know the density, and in your graphs you showed us that it drops more than 3 times after about 8,000 or 9,000 for Asia. I tend to assume that similar density pattern was in place last year and hence the jump. What do you think?
Sensei-san
Active Member
I just looked at new ceac update (mucho gracias - @Britsimon ). Some thoughts:
KDU currently has 64%(1359/2119) of visas issued in Asia. It looks like Asia is issuing about 618 visas a month (1730-1112=618, similar in Feb). If the pace and KDU proportion do not change, Nepal will reach country limit in July as last year. (2119+229+618+618+618+618+618=5438; 5438*64%=3480). However, this scenario assumes that only 5438 visas will have been issued through July, and quota for the region is about 8,500, hopefully.
I remember very few issuances in Sept last year for Asia. Does anyone know the issuance rate in August 2014? Did they really start issuing more visas in August for Asia after Nepal had been limited?
KDU currently has 64%(1359/2119) of visas issued in Asia. It looks like Asia is issuing about 618 visas a month (1730-1112=618, similar in Feb). If the pace and KDU proportion do not change, Nepal will reach country limit in July as last year. (2119+229+618+618+618+618+618=5438; 5438*64%=3480). However, this scenario assumes that only 5438 visas will have been issued through July, and quota for the region is about 8,500, hopefully.
I remember very few issuances in Sept last year for Asia. Does anyone know the issuance rate in August 2014? Did they really start issuing more visas in August for Asia after Nepal had been limited?
Britsimon
Super Moderator
I can't see the pace increasing enough to max out Nepal in July - that is only 3 VBs so we would need to see at least 1000/1100 per month CN increase.
Yes they were issuing in August...
Sensei-san
Active Member
It was said before that KDU capacity defines the pace for Asia. So the VB could be dependent variable, on the capacity. It kinda looks that KDU is able to issue about 400 a month on average since the beginning of the year. If it continues at this pace it will take about 5 months to reach the limit (5*400+about 1500 issued through Feb), and that is July.
Anyway, to me Nepal was not the reason for the jump last year. As Britsimon's Draw Theory indicates Nepal was cut off between 8000 and 9000 in the Draw process this year. If it was similar last year, limiting Nepal at 9,500 would be meaningless for the VB jump since there would be no Nepal cases in that range anyway.
From my limited understanding of VB right now, I assume that big countries in other regions get the moving VB limit early because they would slow the progression. However, I would think Nepal last year was purely limited due to reaching the country limit.
I think that Asia is NOT limited by the capacity of KDU, if it were the case KCC (or whoever is in charge) would start placing the limit earlier, just like in other regions. I think this is just natural progression for Asia. KCC just estimates how many cases to make current each month so that by the end of the year they reach the regional quota of 8500 (I don't know much about this quota). As they did last year, they came close to the quota, and they did not need to limit any country out of slow progression concerns.
So we, asians with moderately high case numbers, would like to see the jump this year because the density is 3 to 4 times lower after the Big Two were limited in the drawing process, and that is in between 8000 and 9000 according to Britsimon-san's graphs. Provided, of course, that the response rate, approval rate, ap rate, number of family members per case, ds260 fiasco and other unknown factors would not "negatively" affect this year's progression.
Anyway, to me Nepal was not the reason for the jump last year. As Britsimon's Draw Theory indicates Nepal was cut off between 8000 and 9000 in the Draw process this year. If it was similar last year, limiting Nepal at 9,500 would be meaningless for the VB jump since there would be no Nepal cases in that range anyway.
From my limited understanding of VB right now, I assume that big countries in other regions get the moving VB limit early because they would slow the progression. However, I would think Nepal last year was purely limited due to reaching the country limit.
I think that Asia is NOT limited by the capacity of KDU, if it were the case KCC (or whoever is in charge) would start placing the limit earlier, just like in other regions. I think this is just natural progression for Asia. KCC just estimates how many cases to make current each month so that by the end of the year they reach the regional quota of 8500 (I don't know much about this quota). As they did last year, they came close to the quota, and they did not need to limit any country out of slow progression concerns.
So we, asians with moderately high case numbers, would like to see the jump this year because the density is 3 to 4 times lower after the Big Two were limited in the drawing process, and that is in between 8000 and 9000 according to Britsimon-san's graphs. Provided, of course, that the response rate, approval rate, ap rate, number of family members per case, ds260 fiasco and other unknown factors would not "negatively" affect this year's progression.